TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 8:05 P.M. EDT…JUN. 05, 2016…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: TROPICAL STORM COLIN

TROPICAL STORM WATCH: IN EFFECT
TROPICAL STORM WARNING: IN EFFECT
HURRICANE WATCH: NONE
HURRICANE WARNING: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:

TOTAL STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 1

Good evening everyone!

At 5:30 p.m. EDT, the NHC upgraded Tropical Depression THREE to Tropical Storm COLIN.  As of the 8:00 p.m. EDT Intermediate Advisory from the NHC, the following information was provided on COLIN:

7:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 5
Location: 23.4°N 87.8°W
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62 in.
Max sustained: 40 mph

NHC GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_2d0

HURREVAC NHC TRACKING MAPS
HURREVAC COLIN
HURREVAC COLIN.ERROR

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Indian Pass to Englewood.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. Watches or warnings may need to be extended northward along the southeast United States coast later tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

LOCAL NWS STATEMENTS:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls3+shtml/052213.shtml?

Current satellite loop imagery seems to indicate the system may have become slightly better organized, in spite of the fact it has been plagued by SWLY shear.  While I have t concur with the current NHC co-ordinates as far as the location  of the COC, as it is reported by aircraft, it does appear that a center relocation or reformation may be in fact occurring near 23.3N;83.3W, which is just east of the current center.  If you analyze the satellite loop closely,, you’ll note how the reported center seems to almost open up, and you can “locate” where the cloud swirl “comes together.  This is where vorticity maps have indicated the greatest vorticity from 850-500 mb all day long.  I may be incorrect, but this is what it appears to be. This “new” circulation appears to be mid level, however with the vorticity location, the current center could begin to slide under the convection area to the east. If this occurs, the COC may be able to take advantage of some slightly more favorable upper level conditions, and could allow the system to become a little stronger, albeit the process is slow.  Given this unknown variable at the moment, I have to stick with the NHC intensity forecast of 50 mph prior to landfall.  Modeling has been extremely slow to update, however the 18Z run of the GFS shows the 200 mb streamline flow not optimal,based on the current COC location and track.  However, if the center does relocate further east, the upper level flow becomes a tad bit more favorable as seen in the graphic.

TROPICAL STORM COLIN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn0-lalo

rgb0-lalo

GFS 2000 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
gfs.200.streamline

Colin is moving to the north a little quicker this evening, and I expect this motion to continue during the next 12 hours or so.  Sometime tomorrow, we should begin to see more of a NNE motion, as the system comes under the influence of the approaching trof.

Heavy rainfall, some minor coastal flooding, and some inland flooding due to heavy rain can be expect in the warning area.  Please refer to your local NWS office statements for further information regarding these hazards.

NWS HAZARD AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (click on your area for up to date information)
US

I should have another update tomorrow morning sometime.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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10 Responses to TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 8:05 P.M. EDT…JUN. 05, 2016…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

  1. ALANA2RELATE says:

    About to get a really bad rain band and The governor just announced a state of e mm emergency as Colin has strengthened (more for Big Bend area) school is out is some counties. Everyone stay safe. Bracing for impact here in Tampa its about to get nasty. Thanks Storm and I don’t see the donate button on the mobile app.

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you Storm. I agree with PortA. Glad it’s not me, but really sad it’s you. Stay safe, Storm and family.

  3. Ethan says:

    What’s the address to donate some cash by snail mail?

  4. PortABeachBum says:

    Here comes COLIN headed your way! I guess I’m sorta torn between feelin’ bad for you, and good for me! When a storm gets in the GOM I hate to see it come toward TX! On the other hand, I’ve got mixed emotions about it going to FL. When my parents retired to Fla. 63 years ago they settled in Sarasota. Those were good times when we brought their grandkids to visit..
    STAY SAFE.

  5. Craig McCall says:

    We live in Cedar Key Fl about 3 miles out in the Gulf of Mexico. It’s gonna be interesting to see what happens. God bless.

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