TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: TROPICAL STORM COLIN
TROPICAL STORM WATCH: IN EFFECT
TROPICAL STORM WARNING: IN EFFECT
HURRICANE WATCH: NONE
HURRICANE WARNING: NONE
Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:
TOTAL STORMS: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
Good evening everyone!
At 5:30 p.m. EDT, the NHC upgraded Tropical Depression THREE to Tropical Storm COLIN. As of the 8:00 p.m. EDT Intermediate Advisory from the NHC, the following information was provided on COLIN:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Indian Pass to Englewood.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. Watches or warnings may need to be extended northward along the southeast United States coast later tonight.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
LOCAL NWS STATEMENTS:
Current satellite loop imagery seems to indicate the system may have become slightly better organized, in spite of the fact it has been plagued by SWLY shear. While I have t concur with the current NHC co-ordinates as far as the location of the COC, as it is reported by aircraft, it does appear that a center relocation or reformation may be in fact occurring near 23.3N;83.3W, which is just east of the current center. If you analyze the satellite loop closely,, you’ll note how the reported center seems to almost open up, and you can “locate” where the cloud swirl “comes together. This is where vorticity maps have indicated the greatest vorticity from 850-500 mb all day long. I may be incorrect, but this is what it appears to be. This “new” circulation appears to be mid level, however with the vorticity location, the current center could begin to slide under the convection area to the east. If this occurs, the COC may be able to take advantage of some slightly more favorable upper level conditions, and could allow the system to become a little stronger, albeit the process is slow. Given this unknown variable at the moment, I have to stick with the NHC intensity forecast of 50 mph prior to landfall. Modeling has been extremely slow to update, however the 18Z run of the GFS shows the 200 mb streamline flow not optimal,based on the current COC location and track. However, if the center does relocate further east, the upper level flow becomes a tad bit more favorable as seen in the graphic.
Colin is moving to the north a little quicker this evening, and I expect this motion to continue during the next 12 hours or so. Sometime tomorrow, we should begin to see more of a NNE motion, as the system comes under the influence of the approaching trof.
Heavy rainfall, some minor coastal flooding, and some inland flooding due to heavy rain can be expect in the warning area. Please refer to your local NWS office statements for further information regarding these hazards.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS