TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH: NONE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING: IN EFFECT
HURRICANE WATCH: NONE
HURRICANE WARNING: NONE
Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:
TOTAL STORMS: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
Good day everyone!
UPDATE…3:50 P.M. EDT:
Based on recent satellite imagery, and updated current wind shear, I may not update this evening, unless the NHC comes up with something different on this system. 18Z intensity guidance now indicates this system to remain a depression. I will check the 5:00 p.m. update, which will determine as to whether or not I post this evening.
The Tropical Disturbance I’ve been monitoring over the past 48 hours, has been upgraded to Tropical Depression THREE by the NHC in Miami. As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT initial advisory, the following information was available on Tropical Depression THREE:
10:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 5
Location: 21.9°N 88.1°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb / 29.68 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
The following is from the NHC advisory regarding watches and warnings:
WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Indian Pass to Englewood.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the coast of northeastern Florida through southern South Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:
RAINFALL…The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and Florida.
STORM SURGE… The combination of the storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide… Indian Pass to Tampa Bay…1 to 3 ft. Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay…1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND…Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon. TORNADOES…Isolated tornadoes are possible Monday afternoon across portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.
LOCAL NWS STATEMENTS FROM TALLAHASSEE AND TAMPA BAY AREA
The depression is moving to the North, at around 8 mph. Based on my analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, and analysis of current Dynamic Model track guidance, I expect this motion to continue during the next 12 hours, before more of a NNE motion may occur, and a motion more to the NE, Monday around noon or after.
Based on my analysis of various satellite loop imagery channels, especially Shortwave IR, the LLC did appear to be a little further north, just out into the GOMEX, than reported in the earlier TWO. Evidently, the guidance models internalized this, and are computing forecast track from this “center”. Until this system becomes a little more organized, if it does, I have to concur with the NHC official track and the track guidance of the 12Z run of the dynamic model guidance, and am partial to the TVCC/TVCN consensus models, which place landfall over the Big Bend area of Florida. However, I cannot totally rule out yet, a possible center relocation or reformation, based on the premise that the current LLC appears to be “opening” somewhat, as the area of heavy convection nears closer from the SSE. A long with this, current vorticity maps indicate the greatest vorticity is loser the the area of heavy convection. If this persists, I cannot rule out a center reformation underneath this convection. SHOULD this occur, this would mean the center will be shifted to the east, which could bring landfall a little further to the south, and earlier than planned. I’m not saying this will happen, but this possibility does exist. Given this is an east weighted system, the Tropical Storm Warnings reflect TS conditions in a southern extent from where landfall is projected.
Currently, the depression has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Based on the most recent analysis of the current wind shear product, an upper level anticyclone (200 mb level) has recently developed over the area of heavy convection. This is just SE of the reported estimated LLC, which is keeping the LLC under about 20-25 knots of wind shear, which is not really optimal right now. However, if we get a center relocation under the convection, which is remotely possible, given the upper level anticyclone will now be venting the upper atmosphere over the convection, the upper pattern will be more favorable for further organization and some slow strengthening.
Based on the latest wind shear forecast from the GFS 12Z run, it goes with the current LLC remaining on the western periphery of the upper level anticyclone up to landfall. Albeit this is not optimal for significant strengthening, the storm will be moving in the same direction of the upper level flow, which could allow for slow strengthening, as this type of setup and pattern will still allow for some divergence aloft, but again, not the best setup.
Based on all the mentioned forecast possibilities, I have to concur with the current Intensity Guidance models, in which the majority call for the depression to become Tropical Storm Colin in approximately 12-18 hours form now, in which the more accurate intensity guidance indicates a 45-50 mph Tropical Storm. SHOULD an eastward shift of the center occur, the center would then be under more favorable upper level conditions, and could be somewhat stronger, and could become organized a little quicker than planned.
INIT 05/1500Z 21.9N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 24.0N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.9N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 32.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 40.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
96H 09/1200Z 46.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
I will continue to monitor this situation, and will probably update upon receipt of the NHC 5:00 P.M. update.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS