TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 12:50 P.M. EDT…JUN. 05, 2016…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE

TROPICAL STORM WATCH: NONE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING: IN EFFECT
HURRICANE WATCH: NONE
HURRICANE WARNING: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:

TOTAL STORMS: 2
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 1

Good day everyone!

UPDATE…3:50 P.M. EDT:
Based on recent satellite imagery, and updated current wind shear, I may not update this evening, unless the NHC comes up with something different on this system.  18Z intensity guidance now indicates this system to remain a depression.  I will check the 5:00 p.m. update, which will determine as to whether or not I post this evening.

“Storm”

The Tropical Disturbance I’ve been monitoring over the past 48 hours, has been upgraded to Tropical Depression THREE by the NHC in Miami.  As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT initial advisory, the following information was available on Tropical Depression THREE:

10:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 5
Location: 21.9°N 88.1°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb / 29.68 in
Max sustained: 35 mph

HURREVAC NHC TRACKING MAPS
HURREVAC TD3

HURREVAC TD3.ERROR

The following is from the NHC advisory regarding watches and warnings:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Indian Pass to Englewood. 

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the coast of northeastern Florida through southern South Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

RAINFALL…The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and Florida.

STORM SURGE… The combination of the storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide… Indian Pass to Tampa Bay…1 to 3 ft. Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay…1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND…Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon. TORNADOES…Isolated tornadoes are possible Monday afternoon across portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.

LOCAL NWS STATEMENTS FROM TALLAHASSEE AND TAMPA BAY AREA
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls3+shtml/051602.shtml?

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA FOR UP TO DATE INFORMATION)
US

The depression is moving to the North, at around 8 mph.  Based on my analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, and analysis of current Dynamic Model track guidance, I expect this motion to continue during the next 12 hours, before more of a NNE motion may occur, and a motion more to the NE, Monday around noon or after.

Based on my analysis of various satellite loop imagery channels, especially Shortwave IR, the LLC did appear to be a little further north, just out into the GOMEX, than reported in the earlier TWO.  Evidently, the guidance models internalized this, and are computing forecast track from this “center”.  Until this system becomes a little more organized, if it does, I have to concur with the NHC official track and the track guidance of the 12Z run of the dynamic model guidance, and am partial to the TVCC/TVCN consensus models, which place landfall over the Big Bend area of Florida.  However, I cannot totally rule out yet, a possible center relocation or reformation, based on the premise that the current LLC appears to be “opening” somewhat, as the area of heavy convection nears closer from the SSE. A long with this, current vorticity maps indicate the greatest vorticity is loser the the area of heavy convection.  If this persists, I cannot rule out a center reformation underneath this convection.  SHOULD this occur, this would mean the center will be shifted to the east, which could bring landfall a little further to the south, and earlier than planned.  I’m not saying this will happen, but this possibility does exist.  Given this is an east weighted system, the Tropical Storm Warnings reflect TS conditions in a southern extent from where landfall is projected.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK TO ANIMATE)
avn0-laloT.D.3

rgb0-laloT.D.3

swir0-laloT.D.3

CURRENT 850 VORTICITY MAP FROM CIMSS
wg8vorZ

Currently, the depression has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.  Based on the most recent analysis of the current wind shear product, an upper level anticyclone (200 mb level) has recently developed over the area of heavy convection.  This is just SE of the reported estimated LLC, which is keeping the LLC under about 20-25 knots of wind shear, which is not really optimal right now.  However, if we get a center relocation under the convection, which is remotely possible, given the upper level anticyclone will now be venting the upper atmosphere over the convection, the upper pattern will be more favorable for further organization and some slow strengthening.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR SHOWING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
wg8shrZ

Based on the latest wind shear forecast from the GFS 12Z run, it goes with the current LLC remaining on the western periphery of the upper level anticyclone up to landfall.  Albeit this is not optimal for significant strengthening, the storm will be moving in the same direction of the upper level flow, which could allow for slow strengthening, as this type of setup and pattern will still allow for some divergence aloft, but again, not the best setup.
Based on  all the mentioned forecast possibilities, I have to concur with the current Intensity Guidance models, in which the majority call for the depression to become Tropical Storm Colin in approximately 12-18 hours form now, in which the more accurate intensity guidance indicates a 45-50 mph Tropical Storm.  SHOULD an eastward shift of the center occur, the center would then be under more favorable upper level conditions, and could be somewhat stronger, and could become organized a little quicker than planned.

GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
gfs.200.streamline

12Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
93L 12Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT 05/1500Z 21.9N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 24.0N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.9N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 32.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 40.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
96H 09/1200Z 46.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

I will continue to monitor this situation, and will probably update upon receipt of the NHC 5:00 P.M. update.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 12:50 P.M. EDT…JUN. 05, 2016…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

  1. ALANA2RELATE says:

    Thanks Storm,
    Hello all I have a question, previously you spoke about another low after this one. I saw on the cmc last night that you are in fact correct as usual (why I follow you) but it showed it being only a few days after this. Is this still the case? It brought the storm over Tampa area. Thanks for the reminder post Bruce. I’ll make a donation tonight.

    • Alana, what I saw in the modeling this morning, the early runs appeared to back of on that idea. However, another trof split is forecast to occur, with a piece heading into the southern GOMEX. It will be a matter of waiting to see if the models come back with it, and if they become persistent

  2. Bruce Malo says:

    Thanks for your time and analysis on this Chief. I know the effort that you put into producing your forecasts and then distributing publically FOR FREE. Folks, Chief Walsh spends a significant amount of money to subscribe to many commercially owned websites in order to get the data and graphics that he shares with you and I for FREE. Please consider making a modest donation to help keep Chief’s website on the web FOR FREE.
    I for one would miss his forecast packages if he simply couldnt afford tokeep doing this, living on a USCG PENSION.

    Chief has no idea that I am posting this today, but I know how close we are to losing access to this FREE WEBSITE. Please consider making a donation NOW, and perhaps spreading the word to anyone else who shares from the work on this website. Its going to be a long forecasting season. Lets show our support for Chief “Storm” Walsh.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Looks like IAH will miss this one. You don’t look so lucky. God Bless and stay safe my friend

  4. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks Storm, Is this going to be a busy season? Or is this just a precursor to August-Sept? Get some coffe Storm you might need it this season. And everyone else along the coast get your supplies now before you need them!!!!

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