POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT INVEST 92L / POSSIBLE CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:10 P.M. EDT…JUN. 01, 2016

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: MONITORING 92L / 20%

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:

TOTAL STORMS: 2
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 1

SPECIAL UPDATE: At 2:00 p.m. EDT, the NHC added a 20% probability of tropical cyclone development to the 5 day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook regarding the possible Caribbean development, which has been shifted west to the southern GOMEX.

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TWO 2:00 P.M.
two_atl_5d1

Good day everyone!

Today is the official start of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  During a “normal” or “average” year, depending on which climatology averages you choose to go with (shorter term average 1981 to present [12, 6, 3] or the longer term average 1851 to present [10, 6, 2] an average year can expect the number of storms, hurricanes and intense hurricanes in the brackets.  Earlier, my seasonal forecast reflected totals of 12-14 named storms, 6-7 hurricanes, and 3-4 intense hurricanes.  Given the fact we have already encountered 2 storms, one which became Hurricane Alex back in Jan., and looking this morning at some various forecast tools, I have opted to adjust my forecast accordingly.  Right now, based on the uncertainty of a couple of items, namely the PDO (is it beginning to go negative?), and the Atlantic SST Anomalies (which have cooled slightly over the MDR over the past month), I am not totally sold on going overboard in increasing the total number of hurricanes.  Dr. Phil Klotzbach of CSU updated his seasonal forecast, which now shows 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, which includes Alex.  My original forecast covered the time frame from today, to the final day of the season on Nov. 30.  Given the inclusion of Alex and Bonnie, I have revised my seasonal forecast as follows:

TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14-15
TOTAL HURRICANES:        6-8
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3-4

With that being said,  a still monitoring the area that is ex-BONNIE, or 92L, or what ever the hell tag they applied to it.  Some sites indicate INVEST 92L, some still ex-BONNIE.  In any case, satellite loop imagery indicates there has been an increase of convection near the center over the past few hours. Now, here’s the kicker, NHC designated BONNIE near the Bahamas, when there was an expose, naked LLC with no convection anywhere near the center…and today?  The latest advisory from the WPC at 11:00 a.m. EDT provided the following information:

 LOCATION…33.4N 76.6W ABOUT 90 MILES…145 KM…SE OF WILMINGTON/NEW HANOVER NORTH CAROLINA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…25 MPH…40 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 090 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1010 MB…29.83 INCHES

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOP
latest_east_vis_conus

NWS MOREHEAD CITY, NC DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)
MHX.N0Q.20160601.1718

CURRENT CIMSS TPW
tccapturetpw92L

CURRENT WIND SHEAR
tccaptureshear92L

This low had been quasi-stationary for a few hours, but according to WPC, it is moving to the east.

Analysis of forecast steering maps is a bit unclear, however it appears a slow, general east to ENE motion is in order during the next 48 hours, before this low picks up forward speed and finally (?) begins to move away from the U.S. coast.  Based on the only available guidance at the time of analysis, the following track guidance looks plausible, and I am inline with the TVCA forecast track.

RAL EARLY TRACK GUIDANCE
aal92_2016060112_track_early

The low is forecast to be under light upper level winds (for the next 48-72 hours, before wind shear increases).  It is unknown right now, if this will regenerate, but given the forecast of very light upper level winds (less than 15 knots)  for the next 48 hours, I cannot rule out the probability of  sub-tropical or topical development during this time.

RAL EARLY INTENSITY GUIDANCE
aal92_2016060112_intensity_early

Elsewhere, to different degrees, all of the global models are indicating development in the western to NW Caribbean Sea in approximately 5-7 days from 12Z this morning.  The models differ in strength, and right now the consensus seems to be a 1004 mb low. The NAVGEM which was the lead on this, has backed off quite a bit.  I am not putting much weight in the initial strength with the models, until we get something the models can initialize.  The models are in some agreement on a forecast path, which seems to be over southern Florida, then toward the ENE after crossing the Peninsula.  Of course, this will all depend on whether or not we see development, where it may occur, and the current and forecast steering projections at the time of said possible development.  Again, models shouldn’t be used to “pinpoint” development or motion, especially in the early stages.  They should be used to catch your attention, in order for you to perform your own analysis of other parameters to achieve a better understanding of either “yes, this could occur”, or “no…the models are blowing smoke”.

ECMWF 850 MB WINDS
ecm_mslp_uv850_conus_7
GFS 10 METER WIND SPEED FORECAST
gfs_mslp_uv10m_conus_25

gfs_mslp_uv10m_conus_33

gfs_mslp_uv10m_conus_36

CMC GGEM FORECAST
cmc_mslp_uv10m_conus_18

cmc_mslp_uv10m_conus_21

FIM 8 FORECAST
FIM8.wind_10m_f114

FIM8.wind_10m_f138

FIM 9 FORECAST
FIM9.wind_10m_f114

FIM9.wind_10m_f138

The current thinking is, we are going to see surface winds slow over the area, allowing for heat to build and convergence to take place.  The current wind shear forecast from the GFS shows a very favorable upper level environment developing, indicating a rather large upper level anticyclone at 200 mb,  during the time frame in which tropical development is supposed to occur.  Based on these factors, and the very warm SST’s in the Caribbean, some type of development seems likely, should these indicators come to fruition.  The models have been fairly consistent, and the GFS shear forecast has been persistent in developing that upper level anticyclone over the W. Caribbean.  I will not have an update tomorrow, as I work again.  I will be monitoring both situations, and will try and have another update sometime Friday afternoon.

GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
gfs.200.streamline
gfs.200.streamline2

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT INVEST 92L / POSSIBLE CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:10 P.M. EDT…JUN. 01, 2016

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, looking forward to Friday’s report.

  2. ALANA2RELATE says:

    Thanks Storm, as always it’s so great being able to come and get solid information!
    #2016HurricaneSeasonHasBegun
    #Prepare
    #Storm

  3. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm, but you know anything that includes a mention of the GOM makes me not happy. Glad to have the information, however, because prepared beats happy hands down.

  4. Brenda says:

    Thank you Storm. This is some great information as always I look forward to reading them

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