POST TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE…SPECIAL UPDATE SYNOPSIS …ISSUED 7:45 P.M. EDT…MAY 31, 2016

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: MONITORING

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
money-dog-300x300

CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:

TOTAL STORMS: 2
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 1

UPDATE: As of 18Z today, the NHC designated the remnant which was Bonnie, INVEST 92L.  The following was available in the ATCF BTF product:

al922016, TRANSITIONED, alB22016 to al022016, DISSIPATED, al022016 to al922016,
AL, 92, 2016053118, , BEST, 0, 334N, 779W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BONNIE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002,

In English

AL02 which was BONNIE, dissipated, and the current circulation was designated AL92, located near 33.4N…77.9W, Sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), Pressure was 1008 mb (29.77 in)

Good evening everyone!

Well, so much for science (or should I say “remember how I always speak of upper level winds, or STEERING being able to change in as little as 24 hours”?)

Well, post tropical cyclone BONNIE’S remnant circulation has made its way back out over the water.  The NWS WPC (Weather Prediction Center) has issued update number 17 as of 5:00 p.m. EDT.

WPC ADVISORY NUMBER 17
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAWPCAT2+shtml/312105.shtml

The following was available on BONNIE in the update:

LOCATION…33.5N 77.7W
ABOUT 50 MILES…80 KM…SSE OF WILMINGTON/NEW HAN NORTH CAROLINA. ABOUT 70 MILES…115 KM…E OF MYRTLE BEACH(CIV) SOUTH CAROLINA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…20 MPH…30 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 045 DEGREES AT 4 MPH…6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

WPC RAINFALL POTENTIAL FORECAST MAP
BONNIE_rainfall

Analysis of current satellite loop imagery and NWS Doppler Radar loop imagery out of Wilmington, NC. indicate the center of post tropical cyclone BONNIE has moved back out in the open water.

Click on the following images for loops.

NOAA BONNIE FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn0-lalo.bonnie

swir0-lalo.BONNIE

NWS WILMINGTON NC DOPPLER RADAR LOOP
LTX.N0Q.20160531.2334

BONNIE has been moving slowly toward the NE, however recent satellite and Doppler radar loops indicate she may be stationary at the moment.  The current steering map tends to indicate a collapse in steering winds over and near BONNIE’S location.

CURRENT STEERING LAYER WINDS
wg8dlm1

Based on my analysis of the forecast steering layers maps, BONNIE may continue this slow motion for the next 36-48 hours, and should begin to move away from the coast thereafter.  This is the bad thing about having to work part time…I cannot keep up with changes in steering and such.  It’s much easier during my 4 days off in a row.

Analysis of the current wind shear product indicates about 20 knots of shear over the area.  However, indications in the shear forecast are that shear will relax buy tomorrow, and the 2-3 day average shear values work out to around 13 knots.  Based on this, and the forecast upper level pattern changing to semi favorable (although this isn’t called for in the forecast), I am going to monitor the area for possible regeneration.  The slim possibility does exist, if the wind shear and 200 mb streamline pattern come to fruition.

WIND SHEAR AND 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
GFS.WINDSHEAR
gfs.200.streamline

I intend to update tomorrow on post tropical cyclone BONNIE, and have a complete tropical update.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to POST TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE…SPECIAL UPDATE SYNOPSIS …ISSUED 7:45 P.M. EDT…MAY 31, 2016

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I know it is frustrating for you not being able to be at your weather station when changes occur sometimes. But you have provided us with tools to help ourselves. Not that we can do what you can do, but we can click on the sites for which you have provided links and see if something near us has changed recently. I know when we have systems near my location, I check the links a lot; and every time I do that I bless Storm for giving me the tools with which to work. Just know that you will never know what a blessing you are to the people who receive the information you share.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s