TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: MONITORING
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:
TOTAL STORMS: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
UPDATE: As of 18Z today, the NHC designated the remnant which was Bonnie, INVEST 92L. The following was available in the ATCF BTF product:
al922016, TRANSITIONED, alB22016 to al022016, DISSIPATED, al022016 to al922016,
AL, 92, 2016053118, , BEST, 0, 334N, 779W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BONNIE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002,
AL02 which was BONNIE, dissipated, and the current circulation was designated AL92, located near 33.4N…77.9W, Sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), Pressure was 1008 mb (29.77 in)
Good evening everyone!
Well, so much for science (or should I say “remember how I always speak of upper level winds, or STEERING being able to change in as little as 24 hours”?)
Well, post tropical cyclone BONNIE’S remnant circulation has made its way back out over the water. The NWS WPC (Weather Prediction Center) has issued update number 17 as of 5:00 p.m. EDT.
WPC ADVISORY NUMBER 17
The following was available on BONNIE in the update:
ABOUT 50 MILES…80 KM…SSE OF WILMINGTON/NEW HAN NORTH CAROLINA. ABOUT 70 MILES…115 KM…E OF MYRTLE BEACH(CIV) SOUTH CAROLINA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…20 MPH…30 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 045 DEGREES AT 4 MPH…6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES
WPC RAINFALL POTENTIAL FORECAST MAP
Analysis of current satellite loop imagery and NWS Doppler Radar loop imagery out of Wilmington, NC. indicate the center of post tropical cyclone BONNIE has moved back out in the open water.
Click on the following images for loops.
BONNIE has been moving slowly toward the NE, however recent satellite and Doppler radar loops indicate she may be stationary at the moment. The current steering map tends to indicate a collapse in steering winds over and near BONNIE’S location.
Based on my analysis of the forecast steering layers maps, BONNIE may continue this slow motion for the next 36-48 hours, and should begin to move away from the coast thereafter. This is the bad thing about having to work part time…I cannot keep up with changes in steering and such. It’s much easier during my 4 days off in a row.
Analysis of the current wind shear product indicates about 20 knots of shear over the area. However, indications in the shear forecast are that shear will relax buy tomorrow, and the 2-3 day average shear values work out to around 13 knots. Based on this, and the forecast upper level pattern changing to semi favorable (although this isn’t called for in the forecast), I am going to monitor the area for possible regeneration. The slim possibility does exist, if the wind shear and 200 mb streamline pattern come to fruition.
I intend to update tomorrow on post tropical cyclone BONNIE, and have a complete tropical update.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS