POST TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:50 P.M. EDT…MAY 30, 2016

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:

TOTAL STORMS: 2
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 1

Good day everyone!

The NHC in Miami declared BONNIE a post tropical cyclone this morning, and has issued it’s last public advisory.  The following information was available on BONNIE in the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC:

11:00 AM EDT Mon May 30
Location: 33.4°N 79.8°W
Moving: ENE at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb / 29.88 in
Max sustained: 30 mph

NHC 5 DAY TRACKING MAP
143506W_sm

Based on information contained in the NHC discussion, deep convection associated with BONNIE dissipated around 11:00 p.m. last night.  Based on the lack of convection, and rising pressures, BONNIE has been designated post tropical. Based on analysis of the 12Z dynamic guidance, forecast steering layers maps, and out of respect, the ECMWF, I have to concur at the moment with the NHC forecast track, which appears to be a blend of the above, and in the middle of the consensus models.

NOAA BONNIE FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK ON IMAGES)
avn0-lalo.bonnie

rgb0-lalo.bonnie

WILMINGTON NC DOPPLER RADAR LOOP
LTX.N0Q.20160530.1813.CURRENT

DOPPLER STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
LTX.DSP.20160530.1819

The remnants of BONNIE are forecast to become and extra-tropical cyclone (mid latitude cyclone) as it becomes part of an approaching front in about 72-96 hours.  Regeneration into a tropical cyclone is not forecast.  In the meantime, the potential for heavy rain and flooding exists over portions of the Carolinas during the next 2-3 days.

This will be my last update on BONNIE.

Elsewhere, analysis of the global models indicates the models are split, and appears “they are not sure” on tropical development in about 7-10 days.  The ECMWF and GGEM indicate low pressure over the extreme eastern GOMEX in around 7-10 days.  I don’t usually bring up the NAVGEM (former NOGAPS) model, as it hasn’t been correct in the past 3-4 seasons.  However, it wants to develop a large, weak area of low pressure (1006 mb) in the western Caribbean, east of Honduras in about 6-7 days.  The GFS kind of hints at a broad area of low pressure near the same area (Gulf of Honduras), along with the FIM 8 and FIM 9, which indicate the start of development by day 5.

ECMWF 240 HOURS
ECMWF.240
GGEM 162 AND 168 HOURS
ggem.162
GGEM.168
NAVGEM 144 HOURS
nav_precip_mslp_mex_25

GFS 168 HOURS
gfs.168
FIM 8
fim8.2016060412.132.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker

FIM 9
rtfim9.2016060412.132.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker

Given the models are split, it’s difficult right now to determine which ones are correct.  The GFS, ECMWF and ESRL PSD modeling indicate a lowering of pressure at 500 mb in about 48 hours around FL.  After this, it appears the models introduce another trof split at approximately days 7-8, with one piece moving to the NE, and the other, well, that’s the question.  Does the energy split and remain mainly over the GOMEX? Or is the split strong enough to send energy down as far as the Caribbean Sea?  My thought on this is, and as I’ve stated before, the global models are NOT HURRICANE FORECAST MODELS, but models that take the information fed them, and produce a mathematical solution indicating what they THINK the state of the atmosphere is going to be at any certain time.  Based on this, my thought is to handle this as I did Bonnie, in that the models indicated 500 mb pressure height falls 7-10 days out, but were from the E. GOMEX, to S. of Cuba, and over the Bahamas.  I believe the global models did get initialization of the surface low correct, out to 7 days.  So, near real time forecasting I believe, is going to be prudent on this.  The models are evidently “sniffing out” and “hinting” at the possibility of development.  What this should do, is give the forecaster a “heads up” in the sense of starting to pay attention around the GOMEX and W. Caribbean, say within the next 7 days.  The models by nature, are not designed to “pinpoint” development of tropical storms and hurricanes.

ESRL PSD 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
z500nanom_f168_usbg

GFS AND ECMWF 500 MB ANOMALIES
gfs_z500_sig_mex_6

gfs_z500_sig_mex_22

ecm_z500_anom_mex_8
Now, is development possible?  Well, even thought the ECMWF and CMC indicate it in the GOMEX, unless the wind shear pattern takes a change (as we saw with Bonnie), the probability there is slim.  However, wind shear is forecast to relax over the W. Caribbean by days 6-7, with a very favorable upper level 200 mb streamline pattern, indicating a rather large upper level anti-cyclone.

CURRENT GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE PATTERN
gfs.200.streamline3

FORECAST GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE PATTERN 144 AND 168 HOURS
gfs.200.streamline
gfs.200.streamline2
So pretty much, it may be worth while to monitor these areas to see if any significant changes occur in the models over the next 5-7 days.

Analysis of the MJO Phase Diagrams today still seem to indicate a weak upward motion MJO signal to enter Octants or Phase 8 and 1 during the first week of June.  This may become a little more likely, as the ECMF model seems to have trended toward the GFS solution, but a much weaker signal.

GFS MJO PHASE DIAGRAM FORECAST
NCPE_phase_21m_full

ECMF MJO PHASE DIAGRAM FORECAST
ECMF_phase_51m_full
So the bottom line is, I will continue to monitor further model runs for any significant changes to pressure height falls and locations, wind shear, and the other parameters mentioned.

I will not have an update tomorrow, as I have to work.  I intend on having an update on Wed.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to POST TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:50 P.M. EDT…MAY 30, 2016

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm.

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm.

  3. TexasHurricane says:

    Hi Storm! We look to be in that time of year again. We have been getting lots of rain here in TX and suppose to have more at end of week. Im in SE TX. What are your thoughts on the Hurricane season for the GOM? Does all this rain give any indication and if so what? Thanks for all your time and info. 🙂

    • Well, the rain you’ve had doesn’t really give an indication. As far as GOMEX systems, given that the warmest waters are close to the U.S.and in the Gulf region, I do believe we have a slightly higher risk this season at having GOMEX storms…the big factor will be how the steering currents are set up. I mean, it’s not definite, but given we should see more close in developments (Bonnie) and such, the risk increases somewhat.

  4. Greg Goodman says:

    Thankyou Mr storm it looks like Interesting times ahead.

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