TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: BONNIE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH: NONE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING: NONE
HURRICANE WATCH: NONE
HURRICANE WARNING: NONE
Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:
TOTAL STORMS: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
Good evening everyone!
BONNIE weakened to a depression prior to landfall earlier today. As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on BONNIE:
5:00 PM EDT Sun May 29
Location: 33.0°N 80.4°W
Min pressure: 1011 mb / 29.85 in
Max sustained: 30 mph
BONNIE came ashore at around 8:30 a.m. this morning as a depression east of Charleston, near the Isle of Palms. The forecast discussion from the NHC indicates the convection became separated from the LLC, which is noted in satellite loop imagery. This collapse in structure is most likely responsible for the log further east than what was projected in previous forecast steering, which would have placed landfall somewhere near or just east of Edisto Beach.
BONNIE has currently stalled with recent satellite loop imagery indicating a possible semi-cyclonic loop occurring, along with what may appear to be a degenerating LLC. Based on the information contained in the NHC forecast discussion, I am leaning toward the NHC idea of no change in strength, given that a portion of the circulation could remain over water, and BONNIE becoming a remnant low as forecast, based on upper level winds forecast, and forecast steering keeping the LLC inland for the next 24-36 hours. Based on my analysis of current forecast steering layers maps, 18Z Dynamic Model Guidance, putting weight on the consensus models, and GFS /ECMWF track blend, I concur with the NHC forecast track..
Based on the forecast wind shear and 200 mb streamline forecast over the next 5 days, I do not anticipate any regeneration once the remnant of BONNIE gets back over the open water. Given her slow forward motion over the next 24-36 hours, rainfall and rain induced flooding will be a threat over the SC area.
I will continue to monitor T.D. BONNIE over the next few days in case there become any significant changes to the pattern. In the thoughts of this forecaster, I wish I would have had more time to spend on BONNIE as far as more consistent monitoring and analysis, to which I could have provided a much better forecast, mainly as far as track. But, one has to work to pay bills.
Elsewhere, the CMC GGEM is still an outlier in showing another Tropical Storm developing at around day 5 in the forecast period from 12Z this morning, originating over the western tip of Cuba, then bring it up to the west central Florida coast and across the peninsula. At the moment, I have to discount this as the CMC (Constantly Making Cyclones) possibly having convective feedback issues. This is my current thought, as the recent wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds are forecast to be unfavorable for development for one, let alone support a system as strong as the CMC GGEM is indicating. NONE of the other global models show development occurring at the moment.
CMC GGEM 108 AND 150 HOURS
However, this is not to say I won’t be monitoring the Caribbean, in which I have some what of a tiny dilemma. The GFS, ECMWF, and ESRL PSD modeling all indicate pressure height falls in the 500 mb anomaly maps in 48-72 hours. Analysis of 850 mb and surface streamlines and velocities however do not indicate any surface circulation occurring.
The other problem is (and we will get to see which mode is correct on the MJO forecast), the GFS and CFS models indicate the MJO upward motion pulse to be entering PHASE 8 and PHASE 1 during the first full week of June (JUN1-JUN7). The ECMWF does not indicate the MJO to be a factor. In fact, it indicates a pretty negligible signal. The ECMWF for the most part, dandled the MJO better last season. On the other hand, the GFS current depiction pretty much correlates where upward motion (green contours) of the MJO is currently located. So it’s kind of a wait and see test, to determine which of the models is going to be more accurate in the MJO forecast.
Second, the GFS wind shear forecast indicates a favorable 200 mb streamline pattern (upper level anticyclone) developing in about 7 days, over the SW Caribbean Sea. IF the MJO forecast comes to fruition, along with the shear forecast, the Caribbean Sea may need to be monitored.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5-7 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS