TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 7:20 P.M. EDT…MAY 29, 2016

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: BONNIE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH: NONE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING: NONE
HURRICANE WATCH: NONE
HURRICANE WARNING: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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money-dog-300x300

CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:

TOTAL STORMS: 2
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 1

Good evening everyone!

BONNIE weakened to a depression prior to landfall earlier today.  As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on BONNIE:

5:00 PM EDT Sun May 29
Location: 33.0°N 80.4°W

Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1011 mb / 29.85 in
Max sustained: 30 mph

HURREVAC NHC OFFICIAL TRACKING MAP
hurrevac BONNIE

BONNIE came ashore at around 8:30 a.m. this morning as a depression east of Charleston, near the Isle of Palms.  The forecast discussion from the NHC indicates the convection became separated from the LLC, which is noted in satellite loop imagery.  This collapse in structure is most likely responsible for the log further east than what was projected in previous forecast steering, which would have placed landfall somewhere near or just east of Edisto Beach.

BONNIE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn0-lalo.bonnie

rgb0-lalo.bonnie

BONNIE has currently stalled with recent satellite loop imagery indicating a possible semi-cyclonic loop occurring, along with what may appear to be a degenerating LLC.  Based on the information contained in the NHC forecast discussion, I am leaning toward the NHC idea of no change in strength, given that a portion of the circulation could remain over water, and BONNIE becoming a remnant low as forecast, based on upper level winds forecast, and forecast steering keeping the LLC inland for the next 24-36 hours.  Based on my analysis of current forecast steering layers maps, 18Z Dynamic Model Guidance, putting weight on the consensus models, and GFS /ECMWF track blend, I concur with the NHC forecast track..

18Z INTENSITY AND DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
td2 18Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
td2 18Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE

Based on the forecast wind shear and 200 mb streamline forecast over the next 5 days, I do not anticipate any regeneration once the remnant of BONNIE gets back over the open water.  Given her slow forward motion over the next 24-36 hours, rainfall and rain induced flooding will be a threat over the SC area.

CHARLESTON DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (CLICK IMAGE FOR LOOP)
CLX.N0Q.20160529.2035

I will continue to monitor T.D. BONNIE over the next few days in case there become any significant changes to the pattern.  In the thoughts of this forecaster, I wish I would have had more time to spend on BONNIE as far as more consistent monitoring and analysis, to which I could have provided a much better forecast, mainly as far as track. But, one has to work to pay bills.

Elsewhere, the CMC GGEM is still an outlier in showing another Tropical Storm developing at around day 5 in the forecast period from 12Z this morning, originating over the western tip of Cuba, then bring it up to the west central Florida coast and across the peninsula.  At the moment, I have to discount this as the CMC (Constantly Making Cyclones) possibly having convective feedback issues.  This is my current thought, as the recent wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds are forecast to be unfavorable for development for one, let alone support a system as strong as the CMC GGEM is indicating.  NONE of the other global models show development occurring at the moment.

CMC GGEM 108 AND 150 HOURS
GGEM.108
GGEM.150
However, this is not to say I won’t be monitoring the Caribbean, in which I have some what of a tiny dilemma.  The GFS, ECMWF, and ESRL PSD modeling all indicate pressure height falls in the 500 mb anomaly maps in 48-72 hours.  Analysis of 850 mb and surface streamlines and velocities however do not indicate any surface circulation occurring.

ECMWF
ecm_z500_anom_conus_3
GFS
gfs_z500_sig_conus_9

ESRL PSD 500 MB ANOMALY MEAN
z500nanom_f048_usbg

The other problem is (and we will get to see which mode is correct on the MJO forecast), the GFS and CFS models indicate the MJO upward motion pulse to be entering PHASE 8 and PHASE 1 during the first full week of June (JUN1-JUN7).  The ECMWF does not indicate the MJO to be a factor.  In fact, it indicates a pretty negligible signal.  The ECMWF for the most part, dandled the MJO better last season.  On the other hand, the GFS current depiction pretty much correlates where upward motion (green contours) of the MJO is currently located.  So it’s kind of a wait and see test, to determine which of the models is going to be more accurate in the MJO forecast.

ECMWF MJO FORECAST
ECMF_phase_51m_full
GFS MJO FORECAST
NCPE_phase_21m_full
200 MB POTENTIAL VELOCITIES
am_ir_monthly_60E_1

Second, the GFS wind shear forecast indicates a favorable 200 mb streamline pattern (upper level anticyclone) developing in about 7 days, over the SW Caribbean Sea.  IF the MJO forecast comes to fruition, along with the shear forecast, the Caribbean Sea may need to be monitored.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST 174 HOURS
850200shear29

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5-7 days.
Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 7:20 P.M. EDT…MAY 29, 2016

  1. Greg goodman says:

    Thankyou for the update mr storm.Mr storm I got a gut feeling that a lull in the action over the last 10 years is fixing to end.I don’t think we are going to like what we see down the road.

  2. PortABeachBum says:

    Just curious, Storm. If the “Gulf Stream” had not been there, Would that “Disturbance” have developed into “BONNIE” ? And, if it starts to follow the Stream, will it redevelop?

    • In answer to the first question, most likely not. As far as redevelopment, it would depend how much longer it lingers over land, and what upper level winds look like if and when it does get over the water again. Right now, not likely as far as regeneration.

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