BAHAMAS DISTURBANCE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 5:40 P.M. EDT…MAY 24, 2016

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: ENHANCED
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: LOW (30%)

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

The SPC has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the day 1 convective outlook.  In the southern most enhanced risk area, and into central Kansas, forecast soundings indicate this is where some of the stronger tornado activity could occur, with a few strong, long tracked tornadoes possible.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED TO SPC OUTLOOK TEXT)
day1otlk_1630

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DISCUSSION

Looks like a possible early start to the season.  Well, we’ve already seen Alex back in January.

For the past few days, the global models have been indicating a weak area of low pressure to develop either in the extreme W. Caribbean Sea, or IVO the Bahamas.  The models indicate that this is not to occur for around another 72 hours (approx.).  However, I, as well as the NHC have been monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, associated with an upper level trof, and decaying cold front.  The NHC just recently designated this area as a DISTURBANCE, and has issued a STWO (Special Tropical Weather Outlook) as of 3:30 P.M. EDT.  The NHC designates a LOW (30%) probability of formation over the next 5 days.

NHC GRAPHICAL 5 DAY TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)
two_atl_5d1

This area of disturbed weather is situated near and NE of the Bahamas.  The disturbance, based on satellite loop imagery and current steering layer map, indicates a current motion slowly off to the NE.  However, based on the 12Z run of forecast steering layers maps from PSU e-WALL, indications are by this evening (00Z), steering should collapse.  By 36-48 hours in the period, the steering flow changes and should begin to move the disturbance toward the W or WNW.  Based on this, and the consensus of the current global model runs, this should place the disturbance off the SEUS coast in about 3-5 days.

NOAA CARIBBEAN IR SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK ON IMAGES TO LOOP)
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NOAA CARIBBEAN RGB SATELLITE LOOP
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CURRENT LAYER MEAN STEERING
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Analysis of vorticity maps indicates a lack of vorticity right now at the 850 mb level (5000 ft).  Based on the current 925 mb vorticity map from PSU e-WALL, an area of vorticity is apparent over the extreme SE Bahamas.

CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY
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PSU E-WALL 925 MB VORTICITY
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Analysis of current wind shear from CIMSS indicates wind shear over the disturbance is on the order of 30-40 knots.  However the diffluent pattern noted in the streamlines is aiding in some moderate divergence aloft.  There was no surface convergence noted at the moment however.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR
wg8shr

Analysis of the current run if the GFS wind shear maps indicate wind shear may begin to relax in about 72 hours, with zonal shear becoming near zero over the projected forecast position, by 96 hours.  This could allow for some further organization or slight development.  However analysis of the upper level pattern (200 mb streamlines) doesn’t appear all that favorable for much strengthening, even though shear is forecast to diminish.  The pattern will help induce diffluence aloft, however I am not too keen on the probability of the pattern allowing for this to transition fully to warm core.  It could become tropical, should the front decay totally, however the 200 mb streamline pattern appears to be more baroclinic in nature.  One inhibiting factor could be the dry air currently surrounding the disturbance.  Based on this and the MSLP forecast of the global models, this may only become a sub-tropical or tropical depression.  Once and if this begins to develop, I’ll be looking at the upper level pattern again for any significant changes.  At the moment, as far as development and/or track, it is going to be best to play this in real time, until the models have a good initialization on it.

NOAA CARIBBEAN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE
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GFS ZONAL SHEAR 96 AND 102 HOURS
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GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE PATTERN
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I will have another update sometime tomorrow, then won’t be back on until Sunday.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to BAHAMAS DISTURBANCE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 5:40 P.M. EDT…MAY 24, 2016

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you for keeping us informed and providing us tools to keep watch in your absence.

  2. grannyMS says:

    Thank you, Storm!

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