SEVERE WEATHER RISK: ENHANCED
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
The SPC has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the day 1 convective outlook.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DISCUSSION
Satellite imagery indicates the coastal low I’ve been mentioning is beginning to wind up east of the Maryland area. Current satellite fronts overlay indicates a 1006 mb low associated with a stationary front. Analysis of the current runs of the 1000-500 mb thickness maps shows this low to continue toward the NE, with the strongest winds and seas remaining east of the center. Small craft and shipping may wish to watch this, however based on modeling, winds should be no more than 30 knots. The following are the current projections for winds and seas from the STORMSURF model, and surface low position in 48 hours based on the GFS model. Boaters and shipping, please visit the OPC Offshore forecast, linked to the OPC graphic.
Three tropical waves were noted in the 06Z NHC TAFB Surface Analysis map, and were located approximately near 10N;64W…05N;42W and 05N;20W.
TAFB 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP
Elsewhere, the global models have been consistent over the past 3-4 days, run to run, on possible tropical development within the next 5-10 days. The majority of the models develop a low either over the Bahamas, or just east of Florida within the short to medium range, with the average appearing to be at the 5-7 day time frame. The GFS, CMC GGEM, and the FIM models indicate this. The outlier is the ECMWF which has been very consistent with forecasting the trof split which could allow development in the area mentioned, for the past 5 days, indicating a significant lowering of pressures at 500 mb, but is at the 8-10 day time frame. Given this split in the models, I am uncertain at the moment as to exactly when we may see this occur. I am not yet willing to count out the ECMWF as the outlier, as I mentioned yesterday, as I don’t remember which storm it was last season, but the ECMWF was the ONLY model to correctly forecast the steering pattern for it, taking it out to sea. It is not to say this couldn’t occur as early as the GFS and GGEM indicate, as the ESRL PSD 500 mb anomaly mean norm forecast indicates two different time frames of significant lowering of pressure over Cuba. And until I can see how the GFS is performing with the new upgrade, the only solution is to begin monitoring the area in question within the initialization time of the other models.
So beginning (earliest I’ll be on after Wed. of this week), I will be monitoring the area over the W. Caribbean/Bahamas area.
Based on the current model runs, models do not develop this “low’ very much, and should it develop, keep it a tropical depression strength, with the exception of the CMC GGEM, which indicates a minimal TS based on MSLP of 1000 mb.
At the moment, the models are split on direction if development occurs. 2 models bring it over GA., and the FIM solution brings it over FL., and has it meander over the peninsula.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS