PRE-SEASON TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:55 P.M. EDT…MAY 23, 2016

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: ENHANCED
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

The SPC has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the day 1 convective outlook.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DISCUSSION

Satellite imagery indicates the coastal low I’ve been mentioning is beginning to wind up east of the Maryland area.  Current satellite fronts overlay indicates a 1006 mb low associated with a stationary front.  Analysis of the current runs of the 1000-500 mb thickness maps shows this low to continue toward the NE, with the strongest winds and seas remaining east of the center.  Small craft and shipping may wish to watch this, however based on modeling, winds should be no more than 30 knots.  The following are the current projections for winds and seas from the STORMSURF model, and surface low position in 48 hours based on the GFS model.  Boaters and shipping, please visit the OPC Offshore forecast, linked to the OPC graphic.

NOAA U.S. EASTERN SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE TO LOOP)
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STORMSURF EAST COAST WIND FORECAST
eus_wind_24hr

STORMSURF EAST COAST WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST
eus_height_18hr

GFS 48 HOUR FORECAST
gfs.48

OPC OFFSHORE FORECAST
atl_offshore_800px

Three tropical waves were noted in the 06Z NHC TAFB Surface Analysis map, and were located approximately near 10N;64W…05N;42W and 05N;20W.

TAFB 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP

USA_06Z
Elsewhere, the global models have been consistent over the past 3-4 days, run to run, on possible tropical development within the next 5-10 days.  The majority of the models develop a low either over the Bahamas, or just east of Florida within the short to medium range, with the average appearing to be at the 5-7 day time frame.  The GFS, CMC GGEM, and the FIM models indicate this.  The outlier is the ECMWF which has been very consistent with forecasting the trof split which could allow development in the area mentioned, for the past 5 days, indicating a significant lowering of pressures at 500 mb, but is at the  8-10 day time frame.  Given this split in the models, I am uncertain at the moment as to exactly when we may see this occur. I am not yet willing to count out the ECMWF as the outlier, as I mentioned yesterday, as I don’t remember which storm it was last season, but the ECMWF was the ONLY model to correctly forecast the steering pattern for it, taking it out to sea.  It is not to say this couldn’t occur as early as the GFS and GGEM indicate, as the ESRL PSD 500 mb anomaly mean norm forecast indicates two different time frames of significant lowering of pressure over Cuba.  And until I can see how the GFS is performing with the new upgrade, the only solution is to begin monitoring the area in question within the initialization time of the other models.

So beginning (earliest I’ll be on after Wed. of this week), I will be monitoring the area over the W. Caribbean/Bahamas area.

Based on the current model runs, models do not develop this “low’ very much, and should it develop, keep it a tropical depression strength, with the exception of the CMC GGEM, which indicates a minimal TS based on MSLP of 1000 mb.

At the moment, the models are split on direction if development occurs.  2 models bring it over GA., and the FIM solution brings it over FL., and has it meander over the peninsula.

GFS 96, 120, AND 156 HOUR FORECAST MAPS
GFS.96
GFS.156

GFS.156

GGEM 96, 120, AND 156 HOUR FORECAST
GGEM.96

GGEM.120

GGEM.156
FIM 8 MODEL 144 HOURS

FIM8wind_10m_f144

FIM 9 144 HOURS
FIM9wind_10m_f144

ECMWF 240 HOURS
ECMWF.240

ECMWF 500 MB ANOMALY MAPS
ecm_z500_anom_conus_9

ecm_z500_anom_conus_11

ESRL PSD 500 MB MEAN NORM ANOMALY MAPS AT 120 HOURS, AND 192 HOURS
z500nanom_f120_usbg

z500nanom_f192_usbg

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to PRE-SEASON TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:55 P.M. EDT…MAY 23, 2016

  1. Greg Goodman says:

    Thankyou Mr storm for the update.

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm.

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