SEVERE WEATHER RISK: ENHANCED
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DISCUSSION
A large area of convection and thunderstorm activity, associated with a large MCS, was located over the extreme eastern GOMEX. just off the west coast of Florida. While wind shear is minimally conducive, this MCS will be coming ashore over the next 2-3 hours, bringing portions of the Florida peninsula some heavy rainfall. Development of this area is not expected. The flare up you see is being enhanced by moderate divergence aloft, weak to moderate surface convergence, and dew-point temperatures in the low to mid 70’s.
There really doesn’t appear to be much change in the forecast from yesterday, except all of the global models appear to be onboard and have been more consistent in regard to a low pressure area which is forecast to move off the U.S. Eastern Seaboard around the DELMARVA area, in about 5-6 days from now. The ECMWF, GFS and CMC indicate a stronger low, and the FIM models appear to be in the middle, with a split being a track very close to the coast, to riding just on the coast, then eventually NNE to NE. One caveat in this is, the GFS develops a weaker, double barreled low at around 144-120 hours out in the period from 12Z (8:00 A.M. EDT) today, and then spawns another large low out at 150-162 hours. The ECMWF pretty much is backing the GFS on this scenario.
Regardless of which model is the more accurate on this, As the time draws near, I won’t be able to give a, let’s say, a 48-72 hour forecast update because of my work schedule. My next update after that will be on Sunday, when this scenario should be taking good shape by then. The first low mentioned appears to remain baroclinic in nature. The second low, should it come to be, will be watching a little closer, as analysis of the 1000 mb- 500 mb thickness maps indicate it could try to transition to warm core, which would allow for sub-tropical characteristics to take shape. Either way, I will try my best to be on top of the situation come Sunday afternoon.
Elsewhere, global models are still detecting a forecast trof split as mentioned in my previous forecasts. The ECMWF deterministic model 500 mb height anomaly map from WeatherBell Analytics best depicts this. The ESRL PSD 500 mb Mean Norm. Anomaly map still indicates a pressure fall, lowering pressure over the Caribbean, centered just south of the south Cuba coastline. Based on this and model consistency, I will be monitoring the W. Caribbean at that time for any possible “mischief”. I do not believe anything will become of the area, based on analysis of the current wind shear forecast, which indicates upper level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for any development. When anything does develop from a setup like this, we commonly refer to it as a “situational development”. This occurs when pressure heights rise north of the Caribbean or GOMEX, which allows for pressure height to fall, south of the of the higher pressure heights, thus creating a “situation” in where development could occur.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS