PRE-SEASON TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 4:00 P.M. EDT…MAY 17, 2016

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: ENHANCED
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1630

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DISCUSSION

A large area of convection and thunderstorm activity, associated with a large MCS, was located over the extreme eastern GOMEX. just off the west coast of Florida.  While wind shear is minimally conducive, this MCS will be coming ashore over the next 2-3 hours, bringing portions of the Florida peninsula some heavy rainfall.  Development of this area is not expected.  The flare up you see is being enhanced by moderate divergence aloft, weak to moderate surface convergence, and dew-point temperatures in the low to mid 70’s.

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP
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SSEC GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE LOOP
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NOAA SSD ATLANTIC WIDE LOOP
avn-l

There really doesn’t appear to be much change in the forecast from yesterday, except all of the global models appear to be onboard and have been more consistent in regard to a low pressure area which is forecast to move off the U.S. Eastern Seaboard around the DELMARVA area, in about 5-6 days from now.  The ECMWF, GFS and CMC indicate a stronger low, and the FIM models appear to be in the middle, with a split being a track very close to the coast, to riding just on the coast, then eventually NNE to NE.  One caveat in this is, the GFS develops a weaker, double barreled low at around 144-120 hours out in the period from 12Z (8:00 A.M. EDT) today, and then spawns another large low out at 150-162 hours.  The ECMWF pretty much is backing the GFS on this scenario.

Regardless of which model is the more accurate on this, As the time draws near, I won’t be able to give a, let’s say, a 48-72 hour forecast update because of my work schedule.  My next update after that will be on Sunday, when this scenario should be taking good shape by then.  The first low mentioned appears to remain baroclinic in nature.  The second low, should it come to be,  will be watching a little closer, as analysis of the 1000 mb- 500 mb thickness maps indicate it could try to transition to warm core, which would allow for sub-tropical characteristics to take shape.  Either way, I will try my best to be on top of the situation come Sunday afternoon.

GFS TROPICAL ATLANTIC 120 HOURS
GFS.120
GFS TROPICAL ATLANTIC 144 HOURS
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GFS TROPICAL ATLANTIC 168 HOURS
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ECMWF TROPICAL ATLANTIC 144 HOURS
ecmwf.144

ECMWF TROPICAL ATLANTIC 168 HOURS
ecmwf.168
GGEM U.S. EAST
cmc_mslp_uv10m_east_29.168

Elsewhere,  global models are still detecting a forecast trof split as mentioned in my previous forecasts.  The ECMWF deterministic model 500 mb height anomaly map from WeatherBell Analytics best depicts this.  The ESRL PSD 500 mb Mean Norm. Anomaly map still indicates a pressure fall, lowering pressure over the Caribbean, centered just south of the south Cuba coastline.  Based on this and model consistency, I will be monitoring the W. Caribbean at that time for any possible “mischief”.  I do not believe anything will become of the area, based on analysis of the current wind shear forecast, which indicates upper level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for any development. When anything does develop from a setup like this, we commonly refer to it as a “situational development”.  This occurs when pressure heights rise north of the Caribbean or GOMEX, which allows for pressure height to fall, south of the of the higher pressure heights, thus creating a “situation” in where development could occur.

ECMWF DETERMINISTIC 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALY MAP 240 HOURS
ecm_z500_anom_conus_11ESRL PSD NCEP ENSEMBLE 500 MB MEAN NORMAL ANOMALY 264 HOURS
z500nanom_f264_usbg

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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