PRE-SEASON TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 3:35 P.M. EDT…MAY 16, 2016

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: ENHANCED
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1630

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DISCUSSION

A little bit of a rough time pulling up things to analyze.  The Americanwx site which I subscribe to for the models you normally see on the site, has been down since this morning.  So after going through my “weather library”, and subscribing to Weatherbell, I was able to find some decent models.

There really doesn’t appear to be much change in the forecast from yesterday, except with models appearing to have a faster solution this morning in regard to a forecast low pressure area which is supposed to move off the U.S. Eastern Seaboard around the DELMARVA area.

Showers and thunderstorm activity have blown up over the GOMEX this late morning.  This activity is associated with a MCS/MCV over south Texas and a current stationary front, and is purely baroclinic in nature.  This activity is moving quickly to the ENE, hence no development is expected, based on my analysis.  Wind shear over the Gulf is currently on the order of 30-40 knots.

An area of disturbed weather remains just north of Panama and over Nicaragua.  Development of this area is not expected.

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOP
latest_east_vis_conus

NOAA SSD WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP
avn-l

Analysis of what models I did have access to still suggest a low moving off the U.S. east coast, now in about 6-8 days.  The current model runs indicate the GFS has come onboard with the solution.  The GFS shows a more elongated system, at 1004 mb.  The ECMWF indicates a very weak system, the CMC and FIM models indicate something a little stronger, with the CMC at 1000 mb.  Models appear to have been consistent in their indications over the past few runs.  Going out in time on the current runs, should this low materialize, it will be quick to move away from the U.S. coast toward the NE.  Analysis of the current run of the GFS wind shear forecast indicates 850-200 mb shear will be non conducive for development, however, if a low does materialize, analysis of the shear pattern indicates said low will be on the eastern side of an upper level trof, which could allow (albeit slim) for the feature to try and gain some sub-tropical characteristics.  Again, this is IF this low comes to fruition, and given it’s forecast quick departure, may have a SLIM chance at best to gain some sub-tropical characteristics.

WEATHERBELL GFS MODEL
gfs_mslp_uv10m_natl_27
CMC GGEM MODEL
cmc_mslp_uv10m_natl_27

ECMWF MODEL
ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_9

FIM 8 MODEL
FIM8wind_10m_f144

FIM 9 MODEL
FIM9wind_10m_f144

GFS 156 HOUR WIND SHEAR FORECAST
850200shear26

For the Caribbean, which was mentioned in yesterday’s synopsis, The ECMWF EPS still indicates a trof split, which appears to be associated with the above mentioned low.  This was alluded to in yesterday’s synopsis.  Having “run” the models in motion, the ECMWF EPS (from Weatherbell Analytics) does indicate the split, in where one piece (the low mentioned above) splits eastward, allowing for the surface low, and another splits south, into the extreme Western Caribbean.  In addition, the current run of the ESRL PSD 500 mb anomaly maps indicates this as well, and now shows a more significant lowering of pressures in the Western Caribbean as opposed to yesterdays forecast.  Albeit I do not expect development in the area, provided this comes to fruition, as the current wind shear forecast shows upper level winds to remain unfavorable for development over the region, I will continue to monitor the pattern for any significant changes that may occur.  The following maps will allow you to pretty much follow the split.  In the ECMWF EPS final graphic, you’re looking for the very light shading over Cuba/Hispaniola.  ALL ECMWF graphics are from Weatherbell Analytics.

ECMWF EPS 500 MB ANOMALIES
eps_z500a_noram_23

eps_z500a_noram_31

eps_z500a_noram_41

ESRL PSD 500 MB MEAN NORM. ANOMALY FORECAST COMPARISON (TODAY)
z500nanom_f288_usbg

MAY 15, 2016
z500nanom_f264_usbg

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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