SEVERE WEATHER RISK: ENHANCED
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DISCUSSION
A little bit of a rough time pulling up things to analyze. The Americanwx site which I subscribe to for the models you normally see on the site, has been down since this morning. So after going through my “weather library”, and subscribing to Weatherbell, I was able to find some decent models.
There really doesn’t appear to be much change in the forecast from yesterday, except with models appearing to have a faster solution this morning in regard to a forecast low pressure area which is supposed to move off the U.S. Eastern Seaboard around the DELMARVA area.
Showers and thunderstorm activity have blown up over the GOMEX this late morning. This activity is associated with a MCS/MCV over south Texas and a current stationary front, and is purely baroclinic in nature. This activity is moving quickly to the ENE, hence no development is expected, based on my analysis. Wind shear over the Gulf is currently on the order of 30-40 knots.
An area of disturbed weather remains just north of Panama and over Nicaragua. Development of this area is not expected.
Analysis of what models I did have access to still suggest a low moving off the U.S. east coast, now in about 6-8 days. The current model runs indicate the GFS has come onboard with the solution. The GFS shows a more elongated system, at 1004 mb. The ECMWF indicates a very weak system, the CMC and FIM models indicate something a little stronger, with the CMC at 1000 mb. Models appear to have been consistent in their indications over the past few runs. Going out in time on the current runs, should this low materialize, it will be quick to move away from the U.S. coast toward the NE. Analysis of the current run of the GFS wind shear forecast indicates 850-200 mb shear will be non conducive for development, however, if a low does materialize, analysis of the shear pattern indicates said low will be on the eastern side of an upper level trof, which could allow (albeit slim) for the feature to try and gain some sub-tropical characteristics. Again, this is IF this low comes to fruition, and given it’s forecast quick departure, may have a SLIM chance at best to gain some sub-tropical characteristics.
For the Caribbean, which was mentioned in yesterday’s synopsis, The ECMWF EPS still indicates a trof split, which appears to be associated with the above mentioned low. This was alluded to in yesterday’s synopsis. Having “run” the models in motion, the ECMWF EPS (from Weatherbell Analytics) does indicate the split, in where one piece (the low mentioned above) splits eastward, allowing for the surface low, and another splits south, into the extreme Western Caribbean. In addition, the current run of the ESRL PSD 500 mb anomaly maps indicates this as well, and now shows a more significant lowering of pressures in the Western Caribbean as opposed to yesterdays forecast. Albeit I do not expect development in the area, provided this comes to fruition, as the current wind shear forecast shows upper level winds to remain unfavorable for development over the region, I will continue to monitor the pattern for any significant changes that may occur. The following maps will allow you to pretty much follow the split. In the ECMWF EPS final graphic, you’re looking for the very light shading over Cuba/Hispaniola. ALL ECMWF graphics are from Weatherbell Analytics.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS