PRE-SEASON TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 4:40 P.M. EDT…MAY 15, 2016

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SLIGHT
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
money-dog-300x300

Good evening everyone!

I know the Atlantic hurricane season begins June 01, 2016.  However as I have stated previously, I will be issuing my Tropical Weather Forecast Synopsis beginning today.  I have decided on this, as today begins the Eastern Pacific hurricane season.  By beginning my forecasts, I can analyze the EPAC as well, this way I am abreast of any possible “crossover” that could occur.  In fact, a system is already being monitored by the NHC in the EPAC, but doesn’t appear to be a threat. I believe it was last season, or the one prior, I actually got caught off guard by a crossover system.  This will ensure against that.  Secondly, it familiarizes newer people seeing my product, knowing what to expect as far as some of my products in the synopsis, as well as getting me back into the swing of forecasting tropical weather.

As far as severe weather, I will in the beginning of the forecast, be posting the graphic day 1 outlook, which will be linked to the SPC site.  This site contains pretty much all you will need to stay safe.  I know it’s nice in having me pinpoint things on the F5 maps, however, I have only so much time to put into analysis in order to get my product posted.  I appreciate your understanding.

I will have headers at the top of the page regarding the severe weather probability, or risk category, and probability of tropical cyclone development.  You may have noticed the example at the top of the page.  As far as tropical cyclone formation, after my analysis, I will post my take on a probability as NONE or MONITORING.  When the NHC designates an area of disturbed weather, this will be replaced with their probability scale.

I will try to be on as much as I can this season, as personal business and part time work allow.  My intention is to issues a synopsis Sun., after church, then on Mon., Tue., Wed., as these are my current days off from my part time job.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1630

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DISCUSSION

Upon analysis of global models this afternoon, and various forecast tools I use in developing my tropical synopsis, there are some mixed signals as to possible development off the Eastern Seaboard in approximately 10 days, and possible Caribbean mischief in the long range modeling 14-16 days out.  First, let me start in that I personally do not like to go beyond the 72-96 hour time frame in a forecast period, as modeling becomes increasingly inaccurate beyond this time frame.  Depending on how models are initializing and performing, I will sometimes heed the information out to the medium range (7-10) days.  I know a lot of you blow the medium range off most of the time, however, bear in mind, global models are meant to go out that far in time with some accuracy, albeit not as accurate as the short term.  Based on my analysis, the ECMWF, FIM8 and FIM 9 indicate an area of low pressure may try to develop off the DELMARVA area in about 9-10 days.  The FIM 9 model is the most bullish, and the CMC GGEM and GFS do not show this at all, albeit the GFS previously had been hinting at this on and off over the past few days.  Could this conceivably happen?  Possible…but at the moment with the inconsistency in the modeling this far out, confidence is low at this time.  I will however be re-visiting this on Wed. as the models would be within the 7 day time frame in the forecast period.  IF anything does occur, based on analysis of the 1000-500 mb thickness charts, and wind shear forecast at the moment, only two possibilities are optional…either a low which remains baroclinic in nature, or a slim shot at something subtropical.  In any case, this “low” would move quickly to the NE.

Cloudiness and thunderstorm activity is noted north of Panama.  Wind shear over the area is not favorable for any development, and current and forecast steering layers winds indicate this area should continue into the EPAC side.

ATLANTIC WIDE SATELLITE LOOP
avn-l

CURRENT STEERING LAYER
wg8dlm1

ECMWF 216 HOURS

ECMWF.216
FIM 8 228 HOURS
wind_10m_f228

FIM 9 240 HOURS
wind_10m_f240

The second “feature” may hold a little more credence, however it is very far out in the forecast period of 360-384 hours (15-16 days).  The only model that goes out this far is the GFS.  Having visited my “colleague”, (as I like to refer to him.), on Weatherbell, Meteorologist Joe Bastardi has access to the ECMWF EPS Ensemble model (I do not), which also goes out to 384 hours.  This model points out that a ridge is forecast to build in over the eastern portion of the United States, and a trof split is forecast to occur, with one piece of energy moving eastward, and one heading south, toward the extreme Western Caribbean Sea.  The only items that back this thought at the moment are the NOAA ESRL 500 mb mean normal anomaly charts indicating a lowering of pressures over the western portion of Cuba and the western Caribbean, and the global models indicating the trof over the East coast digging far south.

GFS 360 and 372 hours
GFS.360
GFS.372

ERSL PSD 500 MB MEAN NORM. ANOMALY 312 HOURS
z500nanom_f312_usbg

I am thinking of subscribing to Weatherbell to have access to some of the better modeling, but this will depend on how donations pan out.

In both the Eastern Seaboard and Caribbean scenario, I am not holding high regard in development at the moment, as wind shear is forecast to remain strong during the time frame, and the MJO is forecast to be stuck in phase 4…in other words, we will not have the support of a favorable MJO pattern.

CURRENT MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION FORECAST GFSE and ECMWF
NCPE_phase_21m_full
ECMF_phase_51m_full

I was fortunate enough to come across a new tool in my research regarding I.K.E (No, not the hurricane back in 2008).  I.K.E. stands for Integrated Kinetic Energy.  Definition of IKE from an abstract of research conducted by Michael E. Kozar (et.al) of FSU:

Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE): is a useful quantity that measures the size and strength of a tropical cyclone wind field. As a result, it is inherently related to the destructive potential of these powerful storms.

What the IKE calculator does is provides the SDP, or Surge Destructive Potential.  Surge Destructive Potential Rating is based on a scale of zero to 6. SDP is interpreted similar to the Saffir Simpson scale in that the most destructive storms are rated above 5 and the least destructive storms < 1.

From the Hurricane Research Division:
A wind destructive potential rating is constructed by weighting wind speed threshold contributions to the integrated kinetic energy, based on observed damage in Hurricanes Andrew, Hugo, and Opal. A combined storm surge and wave destructive potential rating was assigned according to the integrated kinetic energy contributed by winds greater than tropical storm force. The ratings are based on the familiar 1-5 range, with continuous fits to allow for storms as weak as 0.1 or as strong as 5.99.

For example, what I found in research, Hurricane Katrina at landfall had an SDP of 5.1

Once we get an active hurricane this season, I will be experimenting with this tool, and will try to provide the SDP values in the synopsis.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to PRE-SEASON TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 4:40 P.M. EDT…MAY 15, 2016

  1. Bob Stohlman says:

    Excellent analysis…. Thank you.

    Bob

  2. Greg Goodman says:

    Thankyou Mr storm for the update we are very thankful to have you.

  3. Theresa says:

    IKE sounds like a useful tool. Thank you

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