ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS TO BEGIN MAY 15, 2016.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK: MARGINAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Good evening everyone!

I know the Atlantic hurricane season begins June 01, 2016.  However as I have stated previously, I will be issuing my Tropical Weather Forecast Synopsis beginning most likely tomorrow late afternoon.  I have decided on this, as tomorrow begins the Eastern Pacific hurricane season.  By beginning my forecasts, I can analyze the EPAC as well, this way I am abreast of any possible “crossover” that could occur.  I believe it was last season, or the one prior, I actually got caught off guard by a crossover system.  This will ensure against that.  Secondly, it familiarizes newer people seeing my product, knowing what to expect as far as some of my products in the synopsis, as well as getting me back into the swing of forecasting tropical weather.

As far as severe weather, I will make not in the beginning of the forecast, posting the graphic day 1 outlook, which will be linked to the SPC site.  This site contains pretty much all you will need to stay safe.  I know it’s nice in having me pinpoint things on the F5 maps, however, I have only so much time to put into analysis in order to get my product posted.  I appreciate your understanding.

I will have headers at the top of the page regarding the severe weather probability, or risk category, and probability of tropical cyclone development.  You may have noticed the example at the top of the page.  As far as tropical cyclone formation, after my analysis, I will post my take on a probability as NONE, MONITORING, or PROBABLE.  When the NHC designates an area, this will be replaced with their probability scale

I will try to be on as much as I can this season, as personal business and part time work allow.  My intention is to issues a synopsis Sun., after church, then on Mon., Tue., Wed., as these are my current days off from my part time job.

Thanks again for your understanding!

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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