ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 11:00 A.M. EDT…MAY 10, 2016

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms for PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION…

There is a SLIGHT risk IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING ENH RISK…AND ELSEWHERE FROM OZARKS TO CENTRAL VA…

There is a MARGINAL risk for PORTIONS OF SWRN/CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX, the area SURROUNDING THE TX SLGT RISK, and over PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS/NEB…KS…ERN CO…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

day1probotlk_1300_torn

day1probotlk_1300_wind

day1probotlk_1300_hailProbability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Based on information contained in the outlook, conditions have warranted an upgrade to an ENHANCED threat over a portion of the Ohio Valley.  Information suggests a complex setup, with numerous variables at play.  In short, the best likelihood of tornadoes exists over the Ohio Valley region today.  It appears hail is the second biggest factor for today, with the more severe, large damaging hail threat forecast to be over a portion of Texas.  Based on my analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software, forecast sounding indices indicate the best probability for tornadic activity to occur is over the Ohio Valley region pretty much per the SPC tornado prob. map.  However, indices indicate the probability with a little different outline over that area, as depicted in the first map.  Indices indicate that I cannot rule out a possible isolated strong/long track tornado occurring within the outline, but more centered within the outline.  The second map based on the model solution, does indicate a tornado threat over a portion of Texas.  This prob. is a little slimmer, as forecast soundings indicate instability to be much greater than shear, albeit the update SPC outlook does indicate enough shear to keep any supercells that develop, tilted.  Thus, tornadic activity cannot be ruled out. 

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5 namtor

f5 namtor.png2

In regards to hail over that region in Texas, significant hail is most likely to occur over the areas indicated by SPC given the extreme instability and lift forecast over that area this afternoon into the evening hours.  The following forecast soundings were observed in analysis:

SBCAPE: 4000-4500 j/kg
MLCAPE: 3000
LIFTED INDEX: -10 to -12

These values indicate extreme instability over that area, which can generate very large, damaging hail.

Residents within the risk areas today through tonight, should closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local NWS statements, advisories and warnings, and local news sources for up to date information.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

SPC RISK CATEGORY DEFINITIONS
Outlook-category-descriptions

The following graphics do not update automatically.  They are linked to their respective sites.  You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

NWS RIDGE RADAR ACCESS
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COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

NCAR DOPPLER RADAR
imap_radar

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 11:00 A.M. EDT…MAY 10, 2016

  1. originallt says:

    Great post, yesterday. Right “on the money” where that severe weather broke out!

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