Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms for PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION…
There is a SLIGHT risk IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING ENH RISK…AND ELSEWHERE FROM OZARKS TO CENTRAL VA…
There is a MARGINAL risk for PORTIONS OF SWRN/CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX, the area SURROUNDING THE TX SLGT RISK, and over PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS/NEB…KS…ERN CO…
Based on information contained in the outlook, conditions have warranted an upgrade to an ENHANCED threat over a portion of the Ohio Valley. Information suggests a complex setup, with numerous variables at play. In short, the best likelihood of tornadoes exists over the Ohio Valley region today. It appears hail is the second biggest factor for today, with the more severe, large damaging hail threat forecast to be over a portion of Texas. Based on my analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software, forecast sounding indices indicate the best probability for tornadic activity to occur is over the Ohio Valley region pretty much per the SPC tornado prob. map. However, indices indicate the probability with a little different outline over that area, as depicted in the first map. Indices indicate that I cannot rule out a possible isolated strong/long track tornado occurring within the outline, but more centered within the outline. The second map based on the model solution, does indicate a tornado threat over a portion of Texas. This prob. is a little slimmer, as forecast soundings indicate instability to be much greater than shear, albeit the update SPC outlook does indicate enough shear to keep any supercells that develop, tilted. Thus, tornadic activity cannot be ruled out.
In regards to hail over that region in Texas, significant hail is most likely to occur over the areas indicated by SPC given the extreme instability and lift forecast over that area this afternoon into the evening hours. The following forecast soundings were observed in analysis:
SBCAPE: 4000-4500 j/kg
LIFTED INDEX: -10 to -12
These values indicate extreme instability over that area, which can generate very large, damaging hail.
Residents within the risk areas today through tonight, should closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local NWS statements, advisories and warnings, and local news sources for up to date information.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
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COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
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Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS