ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 1:50 P.M. EDT…MAY 08, 2016…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

I have a doctors appointment tomorrow at MacDill AFB and will be out all morning.  The SPC indicates another ENHANCED severe weather risk.  I may not be back in time before the severe threat materializes, so please refer to the SPC website regarding the threat.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of CENTRAL KS AND WESTERN OK…

There is a SLIGHT  risk over PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS…

There is a MARGINAL risk OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS…and OVER PARTS OF NC…

…SUMMARY…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

day1otlk_1630

day1probotlk_1630_torn

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

day1probotlk_1630_hail
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

day1probotlk_1630_wind

Based on analysis within the SPC outlook, large damaging hail, and a few tornadoes appear to be the main threat later this afternoon and into the later evening hours.  Based on analysis of both the RAP and NAM-WRF models solutions using F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software, the greatest time for the threat of tornadoes is approximately from 7:0 p.m. CDT through late evening.  Analysis of severe weather forecast sounding indices and parameters has led me to extend the area for the tornadic probability, as well as the area where significant tornado activity could occur.  The NAM-WRF appeared to be much more bullish in the significant area, however discrepancies in that solution, when matched with the SPC tornado probability outlined, led me to go with the RAP solution, in which the forecast sounding values indicated the following outlined areas.  I have included an area in SW Texas as a precaution, based on these forecast indices.  The first map indicates where the most likely probability for tornadic activity to occur, and the other, where the best chance for significant tornadoes to occur.  Some of these in isolated incidents may be strong/long tracked tornadoes, especially near south central OK. extending into central KS.

F5 DATA RAP MODEL BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5.rap.7.tor

F5 DATA RAP MODEL BEST SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5.rap.sigtor

f5.rap.sigtor2

Residents within the risk areas today through tonight, should closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local NWS statements, advisories and warnings, and local news sources for up to date information.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

SPC RISK CATEGORY DEFINITIONS
Outlook-category-descriptions

The following graphics do not update automatically.  They are linked to their respective sites.  You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

NWS RIDGE RADAR ACCESS

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COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

NCAR DOPPLER RADAR
imap_radar

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 1:50 P.M. EDT…MAY 08, 2016…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

  1. Severe weather did NOT develop in the TX Coastal Bend (at least not here in Port A) but we did have a few thunder-boomies before I managed to drag myself out of bed this AM! Three small dogs all headed under the beds, but that was the only consequence of a Southwest to Northeastpassage of a relatively weak front. We thanked the Good Lord because we can always use a little rain to help us forget the draught of the last few yeard.

    Thanks (you too) Storm.

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