Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
I have a doctors appointment tomorrow at MacDill AFB and will be out all morning. The SPC indicates another ENHANCED severe weather risk. I may not be back in time before the severe threat materializes, so please refer to the SPC website regarding the threat.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of CENTRAL KS AND WESTERN OK…
There is a SLIGHT risk over PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS…
There is a MARGINAL risk OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS…and OVER PARTS OF NC…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
|Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Based on analysis within the SPC outlook, large damaging hail, and a few tornadoes appear to be the main threat later this afternoon and into the later evening hours. Based on analysis of both the RAP and NAM-WRF models solutions using F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software, the greatest time for the threat of tornadoes is approximately from 7:0 p.m. CDT through late evening. Analysis of severe weather forecast sounding indices and parameters has led me to extend the area for the tornadic probability, as well as the area where significant tornado activity could occur. The NAM-WRF appeared to be much more bullish in the significant area, however discrepancies in that solution, when matched with the SPC tornado probability outlined, led me to go with the RAP solution, in which the forecast sounding values indicated the following outlined areas. I have included an area in SW Texas as a precaution, based on these forecast indices. The first map indicates where the most likely probability for tornadic activity to occur, and the other, where the best chance for significant tornadoes to occur. Some of these in isolated incidents may be strong/long tracked tornadoes, especially near south central OK. extending into central KS.
Residents within the risk areas today through tonight, should closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local NWS statements, advisories and warnings, and local news sources for up to date information.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
The following graphics do not update automatically. They are linked to their respective sites. You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.
COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS