COASTAL LOW FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:45 P.M. EDT…MAY 04, 2016

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

Analysis of global models this morning still indicates the development of a weak coastal low within the next 30-42 hours, IVO the Tidewater/Mid Atlantic area.

A 500 mb low continues to swing SE and should be over the area mentioned by Thu afternoon, early Friday.  As this occurs a double barrel, elongate surface low develops, then phased with the 500 mb feature, and the surface low becoming more consolidated.

Current forecast sustained winds are around 20-25 knots, with seas ranging 4-6 ft at the coast, and 7-10 ft away from the coast.  Both the GFS and CMC GGEM have the slowest solutions, keeping the low hanging around the coast for at least 2 days, whereas the ECMWF has a quicker solution, moving this low out in a period of 24 hours.

Based on the proximity of sustained winds and height of the sea near the coast, I cannot totally rule out a possibility of some minor beach erosion, or minor coastal breaching at the time of high tide, from NJ, northward along north facing beaches.

I have to work Thu-Sat, so will not be able to update any changes that may occur.  I do recommend visiting the NWS Warnings page (Hazards display) which is linked, and the OPC Offshore forecast page.

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE INFRARED LOOP (CLICK ON GRAPHIC)
latest_east_ir4_conus

ECMWF
ECMWF.48
GFS
GFS48GGEM
GGEM.54

GFS/NAM 72 HOUR TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS
GFS 72 HOUR PRECIP
nam_namer_072_precip_ptot

STORMSURF NJ WAVE HEIGHTS
nj_sea_21

STORMSURF NJ WIND VELOCITY
nj_wind_27

NWS RIDGE RADAR ACCESS

ridge_sitemap

COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

NCAR DOPPLER RADAR
imap_radar

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

OPC OFFSHORE FORECAST
atl_offshore_800px
As a reminder this office will begin issuance of the Tropical Weather Forecast Synopsis on May 15, 2016 (yes, when the EPAC season begins).  The purpose behind this will be to get myself back in the saddle of tropical forecasting, to familiarize newer subscribers to my product, and to watch against any PAC crossovers that may occur prior to June 01, 2016.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to COASTAL LOW FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:45 P.M. EDT…MAY 04, 2016

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Hey LT. Storm…start SEUS trip tomorrow. Looks like I’ll have a system chasing me. Would love your input for next week. Don’t know if I trust guidance as much as you. Thanks Senior Chief!

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. You posted my favorite satellite site, the SSEC one. I click on it, then click on the Visible image, really clear! Thanks.

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