Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
Analysis of the global models this morning indicates that a weak, coastal low is forecast to develop over the next 72-96 hours, very close to shore of the Mid Atlantic region. Based on analysis of the 1000-500mb level maps, a 500 mb low is forecast to swing down from over the Great Lakes region, with a developing weak, elongated surface feature, beginning Thursday. As the 500 mb low moves eastward, the surface feature become a closed, weak surface low, to which eventually the two phase.
Based on analysis of the 10m wind forecast, I’m not expecting too much in the way of wind near the coastal areas. The strongest winds appear to remain offshore, on the eastern portion of the low.
As of the current model runs, it appears portions of the Tidewater area, through the Mid Atlantic may pick up 96 hour rainfall totals of 1.00 – 4.00 inches. Based on current projected sea heights and sustained wind speed, I don’t believe at the moment that beach erosion or coastal flooding will be an issue. I have to work Thu-Sat, so will not be able to update any changes that may occur. I do recommend visiting the NWS Warnings page (Hazards display) which is linked, and the OPC Offshore forecast page.
COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
OPC OFFSHORE FORECAST
As a reminder this office will begin issuance of the Tropical Weather Forecast Synopsis on May 15, 2016 (yes, when the EPAC season begins). The purpose behind this will be to get myself back in the saddle of tropical forecasting, to familiarize newer subscribers to my product, and to watch against any PAC crossovers that may occur prior to June 01, 2016.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS