COASTAL LOW FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 3:00 P.M. EDT, MAY 03, 2016

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

Analysis of the global models this morning indicates that a weak, coastal low is forecast to develop over the next 72-96 hours, very close to shore of the Mid Atlantic region.  Based on analysis of the 1000-500mb level maps, a 500 mb low is forecast to swing down from over the Great Lakes region, with a developing weak, elongated surface feature, beginning Thursday.  As the 500 mb low moves eastward, the surface feature become a closed, weak surface low, to which eventually the two phase.

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE INFRARED LOOP (CLICK ON GRAPHIC)
latest_east_ir4_conus

GFS
GFS.72
ECMWF
ECMWF.96
CMC GGEMGGEM.96
FIM 9
wind_10m_f054

Based on analysis of the 10m wind forecast, I’m not expecting too much in the way of wind near the coastal areas.  The strongest winds appear to remain offshore, on the eastern portion of the low.

As of the current model runs, it appears portions of the Tidewater area, through the Mid Atlantic may pick up 96 hour rainfall totals of 1.00 – 4.00 inches.  Based on current projected sea heights and sustained wind speed, I don’t  believe at the moment that beach erosion or coastal flooding will be an issue.  I have to work Thu-Sat, so will not be able to update any changes that may occur.  I do recommend visiting the NWS Warnings page (Hazards display) which is linked, and the OPC Offshore forecast page.

96 HOUR TOTAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION GFS/GGEM
GFS.96.PRECIP

GGEM.96.PRECIP

STORMSURF SEA HEIGHT FORECAST

eus_height_84hr

STORMSURF WIND FORECAST
eus_wind_78hr

NWS RIDGE RADAR ACCESS

ridge_sitemap

COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

NCAR DOPPLER RADAR
imap_radar

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

OPC OFFSHORE FORECAST
atl_offshore_800px
As a reminder this office will begin issuance of the Tropical Weather Forecast Synopsis on May 15, 2016 (yes, when the EPAC season begins).  The purpose behind this will be to get myself back in the saddle of tropical forecasting, to familiarize newer subscribers to my product, and to watch against any PAC crossovers that may occur prior to June 01, 2016.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to COASTAL LOW FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 3:00 P.M. EDT, MAY 03, 2016

  1. Greg Goodman says:

    Thankyou Mr storm for the update. It looks like this might be a different kind of hurricane season.

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