FORECASTING CHANGE TO ALLOW FOR RESEARCH REGARDING THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON…ISSUED 2:30 P.M. EDT…MAY 01, 2016

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Good day everyone!

First, allow me to begin with saying, as viewers and subscribers to my site, I truly value your thoughts and opinions.  I would appreciate your feedback on the change I am making this month.

As we know, the 2016 hurricane season will be upon us one month from today.  Given all of the severe weather episodes this year, I have had very limited time to research and analyze the vast amount of information I wish to analyze, regarding keeping weekly tabs on all of the various pre season forecast tools and parameters.  It has been brought to my attention on the various social media weather groups I post in, there are quite a few people who have a growing concern about the upcoming season, given the fact some uncertainty remains as to whether or not we enter into a full blown La Nina, or neutral conditions with a cold bias.  One of the other concerns/doubts in the pre season forecasting, is how will the Atlantic ocean SST’s react…(i.e. will they remain above average, or will the cold pool in the far northern Atlantic cool down the MDR, or will the tripole eventually emerge?). 

Given these concerns/questions, I wanted to back off on severe weather forecasting, and switch to daily and weekly analysis and research for the upcoming hurricane season.  This time will be spent watching and analyzing all of the “tools” I use in making hurricane forecasts, ensuring current links work and are up to date, and pretty much taking a “break” to mentally prepare for the season (as all of you by now know pretty much how hectic it can be, for me being the sole forecaster of my “weather center”.  I do intend to “break in” with severe weather updates, should we get to the enhanced risk and above status.  However, the link for the Storm Prediction Center is on the page in the black boxed area, below the site logo.

I would appreciate your feedback on this, as to whether or not this decision is ok with all of you, or if you definitely need me to provide an almost daily severe weather brief?

Thank you for your understanding in the upcoming change!

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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27 Responses to FORECASTING CHANGE TO ALLOW FOR RESEARCH REGARDING THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON…ISSUED 2:30 P.M. EDT…MAY 01, 2016

  1. grannyMS says:

    I live 2 miles from the Gulf of Mexico in Mississippi. My concern is this up coming hurricane season. So you need to rest and get mentally ready 🙂 I depend on your expert forecasting. Thank you, for all you do for us!

  2. Greg Goodman says:

    Thankyou Mr storm for the update.I have been taking care of my sick mother.

  3. I think you are correct to switch to Hurricane mode, this could be a volatile year and we would all be so grateful for your expertize. That you so much for all you do Storm, it gives me great peace knowing you are out there.

  4. I think it is a good idea to switch to Hurricane mode especially due to your work schedule. This year has a lot of variables and you are the best person to give us the info. Thanks so much for all you do Storm.

  5. dellamom says:

    Sorry for the late reply, but you know hurricanes are my major concern. With the tools you provide to us, we can keep an eye on what’s coming severe weather-wise, but only you can keep us aware of tropical probabilities and their associated possibilities. Thanks for all you do Storm.

  6. Bill Webb says:

    Go with the tropical. You do the best job of anyone with that and we need it at Hatteras.

    Thanks for the great job that you do.

  7. David S. says:

    Chief,
    From my perspective, preparing for a “way overdue” active hurricane season is a priority, especially for those of us in the Tampa Bay area, where many are expressing apathy at the hurricane forecasts as we have not had a “direct hit” in decades.

    Sure, we’ve had tropical storms and the fringes of several hurricanes in the GOM or storms which went inland and brushed the area, however, we have not seen true hurricane damage since Jeanne and going as far back as Elena in 1985.

    That is speaking about the immediate Tampa Bay Area.

    Certainly there was Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and many “east coast of FL” storms….so yes, your decision to dedicate your efforts toward tropical forecasting would be wise and welcome.

    Given the odd amount of low pressure and storms in the north central GOM (Louisiana), it seems as if that area has had a “bullseye” on it all year, and it makes one wonder if the prevailing patterns will change in the next few months, or if that is a harbinger of it becoming a “Hot Zone” for hurricane tracks this year?

    Yes…we need your admittedly superior forecasting skills focused on the 2016 Atlantic season!
    And as a resident of your area of FL, I must again extend my profound thanks to you for all you have done, and all you will do in the coming season(s).

    Your forecasting has become essential “Daily Reading” for this humble Skywarn spotter!

    God bless you and your family…and thank you again for your dedication to keeping us all safe!

  8. I want to thank ALL of you, who follow my site. Your support is appreciated.

  9. Tom says:

    Count me among those who feel the tropical season should take precedent…..now, THAT can me sever weather. 🙂

  10. T Hatthorn says:

    I appreciate all the time and effort you put into all of your forecasting! I started following this page for your knowledge with tropical systems so I for one vote that you gear your focus towards that!

    And – thank you again for sharing your knowlege!

  11. Alicia Lindsey says:

    Yes, go ahead and focus on the upcoming hurricane season. All the info you give is appreciated!
    A. Lindsey

  12. Ron says:

    Make the switch Storm. Severe weather gets plenty of division through other outlets…not so much the in-depth tropical discussions you provide. Thanks for all you do!!

  13. Richard Cramer says:

    Chief Storm- While the Severe alerts are a help to me when traveling in the continental US, I am a Southeast FL coastal resident (WPB). Additionally the original reason I became a subscriber, and contributor, to your service, is for Hurricane (TC) forecasts. I also believe TC forecasting is your personal “forte” and area of greatest expertise and experience. I value such experience and look to your years of wisdom and accumulated skill for the “bottom line” when it comes to planning for a visit from a tropical system. So from my SE FL perspective, I hope you will concentrate on TC forecasting! I have been following your forecasts for what has to be a decade or so, since I found your forecasts for Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma to be useful back when Jeanne took off my roof and I became a “blue tarp on the roof” guy! But thanks to you, I had my shutters up and was mostly, OK. Thanks for all your good work over the years, I am sure you have saved lives, Thomas!- Warren in West Palm Beach.

  14. Patrick Gebhart says:

    Thank you so much for all the information, my family and I always relay on your information. I think the move would be great for us because we live off the coast of Galveston and this would benefit us more, Thank You again, Patrick

    Sent from my iPhone

    >

    • Thank you, Patrick. This way I can keep an eye on trends, and climate model updates. I actually begin posting my hurricane product May 15, albeit the season starts June 1st. Gives me a chance to get back into tropical mode, re-familiarizes folks with the forecast products, and allows me to keep an eye on the EPAC for any crossover systems.

  15. Roger says:

    Do it, severe weather is important but it is fairly predictable. Tornados and hail, etc. I lived in Dallas for 25 years before moving to Ft Lauderdale. We were never really caught off guard even though the yard and house got torn up a few times.

    In my mind hurricanes are a different animal and they don’t lend themselves to the 2 minute weather forecaster chicks on TV once a day.

    You stay on hurricanes which means I don’t until you worry, I think that is more valuable to me. Thanks for what you do for us civilians.

  16. dkmac says:

    IMHO, I’ll vote for you to spend the time you need to spend on tropical trends/forecasting. The SPC link does a very good job of forecasting severe weather.

    Keep up your excellent work. And thanks for all that you do!

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