Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center indicates SLIGHT risk of severe weather for Thu., Fri., and Sat. Unfortunately, I have to work all 3 days. Please use this site accordingly.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms across the MID/LOWER MS VALLEY…
There is a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES…
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING…CENTERED ON THE LOWER/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD SOUTH…WITH A MIX OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND NORTH.
Based on information in the outlook, and ongoing MCS is producing severe weather over Louisiana this morning. This activity should continue to move slowly eastward, and conditions should begin to improve within the next 2-3 hours. As of time of analysis, there were no tornado warnings issued.
Based on a combination of the SPC synopsis, and my analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software, hail and damaging thunderstorm winds appear to be the main threat today, which is supported by moderate to strong CAPE of 2500-3000, and a Lifted Index of only -4 to -8 over the risk area. This is not to say that isolated tornadoes could occur within stronger rotating cells. F5 DATA suggest, using the RAP model solution, the best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms should occur within the outline. I left the color coded forecast sounding indices in place to show the highest probability for severe weather should occur within the “brighter” shaded areas, and affect mostly LA., MS, E AR., MO., and a very slim portion near the MO/IA border area. I chose the RAP model this morning, as the initial map closley matched the current Mesoanalysis parameters
As stated, tornado parameters were scarce, however the solution did suggest the best probability for some tornado activity to lie within the outline in the following map.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
The following graphics do not update automatically. They are linked to their respective sites. You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.
COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS