SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 9:55 A.M. EDT…APR. 27, 2016

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center indicates SLIGHT risk of severe weather for Thu., Fri., and Sat.  Unfortunately, I have to work all 3 days. Please use this site accordingly.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms across the MID/LOWER MS VALLEY…

There is a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING…CENTERED ON THE LOWER/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD SOUTH…WITH A MIX OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND NORTH.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

Based on information in the outlook, and ongoing MCS is producing severe weather over Louisiana this morning.  This activity should continue to move slowly eastward, and conditions should begin to improve within the next 2-3 hours.  As of time of analysis, there were no tornado warnings issued.

Based on a combination of the SPC synopsis, and my analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software, hail and damaging thunderstorm winds appear to be the main threat today, which is supported by moderate to strong CAPE of 2500-3000, and a Lifted Index of only -4 to -8 over the risk area.  This is not to say that isolated tornadoes could occur within stronger rotating cells.  F5 DATA suggest, using the RAP model solution, the best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms should occur within the outline.  I left the color coded forecast sounding indices in place to show the highest probability for severe weather should occur within the “brighter” shaded areas, and affect mostly LA., MS, E AR., MO., and a very slim portion near the MO/IA border area.  I chose the RAP model this morning, as the initial map closley matched the current Mesoanalysis parameters

LAKE CHARLES LA DOPPLER RADAR LOOP
LCH.N0Q.20160427.1327

F5 DATA RAP BEST SEVERE PROBABILITY
f5.rap

As stated, tornado parameters were scarce, however the solution did suggest the best probability for some tornado activity to lie within the outline in the following map.

F5 DATA RAP BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5.rap.tor

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

SPC RISK CATEGORY DEFINITIONS
Outlook-category-descriptions

The following graphics do not update automatically.  They are linked to their respective sites.  You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

NWS RIDGE RADAR ACCESS

ridge_sitemap

COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

NCAR DOPPLER RADAR
imap_radar

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 9:55 A.M. EDT…APR. 27, 2016

  1. originallt says:

    Wow, looks like another area of heavy showers and storms moving right into New Orleans by 11:30 or so Sunday morning!–Central Time.

  2. originallt says:

    Looks like Houston escaped bad weather overnight into Sat. morning. But large area of severe weather in Louisiana, Heading towards New Orleans area. Take care, dellamom, looks like it will be on you in 2-4 hours or so.

  3. originallt says:

    Hey Monty , good to hear from you. So you “survived” the Great Houston Flood earlier this week! 🙂

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Hey LT. Looks we get popped again this weekend. Like any of down in SEUS need it

  5. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Now looks like dellamom’s area will be hit hard from about 12 noon, till 6pm or so, CDT. Take care down there!

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