SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MODERATE SEVERE WEATHER RISK…POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION…ISSUED 12:05 P.M. EDT…APR. 26, 2016

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

The following is from the SPC, Norman, OK:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms for portions of SRN NEB…CENTRAL/ERN KS…N-CENTRAL THROUGH S-CENTRAL OK…

There is an ENHANCED risk elsewhere from SRN NEB TO CENTRAL TX…WITH LOBE FROM ERN KS TO ERN MO…

There is a SLIGHT risk surrounding the enhanced area, extending EWD to the LOWER OH VALLEY AND SSWWD TO PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SW TX…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS over PORTIONS OF ERN WV TO JERSEY SHORE…

…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS BETWEEN AND IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING SLGT-RISK AREAS…

…SUMMARY…
A WIDESPREAD…MULTI-EPISODE…SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WEATHER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY LATER TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TORNADOES…DESTRUCTIVE HAIL…AND DAMAGING WIND WILL OCCUR. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1630

SPC TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1630_torn
Probability
of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.  Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

day1probotlk_1630_wind

day1probotlk_1630_hail
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

*Please note:  The outlook maps will most likely change somewhat after my posting, as another SPC update occurs at 12:30 p.m. EDT.  Please click on the day 1 outlook map to access the update.

The synoptic pattern today is rather complex.  The basic players in today’s severe weather event will be a negatively tilted trof, a major upper level cyclone at the 500 mb level, and the dryline.  Information contained in the SPC outlook, which is linked to the SPC day 1 graphic, two or three rounds of thunderstorms later this afternoon into late tonight.  Based on analysis of forecast soundings  Some thunderstorm activity may be notable at or around 1:00 p.m. CDT.  However, based on the current run of the RAP and NAM-WRF models, the bulk of this severe outbreak is suggested from 4:00 p.m. CDT with  the greatest threat of large damaging hail, and strong/long tracked tornadoes from southern Nebraska, to Northern and quite possibly central Texas.

Based on my analysis of forecast sounding indices, the following maps from F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software suggest where the greatest threat for significant tornadoes could occur.  This extends into the enhanced risk area, and cannot be safely ruled out.  Albeit the threat does extend into a portion of the of the enhanced risk area, significant tornado activity may be a little more isolated, with the heart of significant tornado activity lying within the 10% and hatched area in the SPC tornado probability map.  The RAP at the time of analysis only went out to 8:00 p.m. CDT, and significant tornado activity could occur prior.  Please, do not take the model times to heart, as the conditions will change hour to hour.  These times are approximate only.  Forecast indices suggest significant tornado activity may be ongoing to as late as 10 p.m. CDT, and albeit not shown in the SPC outlook, models indicate this may occur as far south as central TX, within the 5% region.  This could change as the day wears on, however I cannot ignore both model solutions being in agreement.

F5 DATA RAP MODEL BEST SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROB 7:00 P.M. CDT (Time approx.)
f5.rap.7.tor

F5 DATA NAM-WRF 4:00 – 7:00 P.M. CDT (Time approx.)
f5.nam.tor.7.pm

F5 DATA NAM-WRF 10:00 P.M. CDT (Time approx.)
f5.nam.tor.10pm

Some of the current forecast indices are as follows:

SBCAPE: 3000-4000
MLCAPE: 2500-3000
LIFTED INDEX: -12 to -14
EHI: 1 to 4 early afternoon, then increasing to 2 to 7. 
STP: 1 to 6, increasing to 2 to 7 in the evening.  (Values of 1 or greater indicates the potential for significant tornadoes (EF2-EF5) increase dramatically.

Based on both the SPC outlook, and forecast severe weather indices, this office is declaring the potential for a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) regarding this outbreak.

Residents within the risk areas today through tonight, should closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local NWS statements, advisories and warnings, and local news sources for up to date information.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

SPC RISK CATEGORY DEFINITIONS
Outlook-category-descriptions

The following graphics do not update automatically.  They are linked to their respective sites.  You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

NWS RIDGE RADAR ACCESS

ridge_sitemap

COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

NCAR DOPPLER RADAR
imap_radar

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MODERATE SEVERE WEATHER RISK…POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION…ISSUED 12:05 P.M. EDT…APR. 26, 2016

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm,looks to get really active in the plains by late in the day. I had a good T.Storm cluster move thru Stamford CT. from about 3:30am to 5am this morning. Frequent lightning, and brief heavy rain, but little wind.

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