MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS..ISSUED 3:00 P.M. EDT…APR. 22, 2016

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Good day everyone!

SPC THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORIESOutlook-category-descriptions

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms for portions of the OH VALLEY TO SRN AL…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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…SUMMARY…
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

Based on the SPC report, weak lapse rates and limited CAPE are contributing to  scattered thunderstorms at the moment.  The threat of damaging thunderstorm gusts and hail are limited to 5% over the risk area, with the tornado probability being less than 2% over all areas.

Analysis of the F5 DATA Severe Weather software of both the RAP and NAM-WRF model solutions indicate only a marginal probability of some strong to severe storms.  These may be scattered to isolated in nature, and may be occurring during the late afternoon to early evening hours, as some increase in mid level lapse rates is forecast later this afternoon/evening.   Models didn’t really indicate any note worthy severe parameters with the exception of the Craven-Brooks index values of 10,000-20,000…only indicating severe storms are “possible”.  Stronger storms may produce some hail due to increased updraft this evening, however I am not looking for anything damaging.  Based on the model solutions, the following areas appear to have the greatest probability of experiencing severe weather this afternoon/evening.

F5 DATA SEVERE PROBABILITY
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There is a MARGINAL risk tomorrow, and a SLIGHT risk for Sunday.  SPC also indicates a probability of severe weather for Tues. and Wed.  I will try to have an update regarding this as well on the respective days.

The following graphics do not update automatically.  They are linked to their respective sites.  You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.  I have to work tomorrow, and will not be available, but will try to have an update on Sunday.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP DISPLAY
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NWS RIDGE RADAR ACCESS

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COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

NCAR DOPPLER RADAR
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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