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Good day everyone!
Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms for portions of the OH VALLEY TO SRN AL…
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.
Based on the SPC report, weak lapse rates and limited CAPE are contributing to scattered thunderstorms at the moment. The threat of damaging thunderstorm gusts and hail are limited to 5% over the risk area, with the tornado probability being less than 2% over all areas.
Analysis of the F5 DATA Severe Weather software of both the RAP and NAM-WRF model solutions indicate only a marginal probability of some strong to severe storms. These may be scattered to isolated in nature, and may be occurring during the late afternoon to early evening hours, as some increase in mid level lapse rates is forecast later this afternoon/evening. Models didn’t really indicate any note worthy severe parameters with the exception of the Craven-Brooks index values of 10,000-20,000…only indicating severe storms are “possible”. Stronger storms may produce some hail due to increased updraft this evening, however I am not looking for anything damaging. Based on the model solutions, the following areas appear to have the greatest probability of experiencing severe weather this afternoon/evening.
There is a MARGINAL risk tomorrow, and a SLIGHT risk for Sunday. SPC also indicates a probability of severe weather for Tues. and Wed. I will try to have an update regarding this as well on the respective days.
The following graphics do not update automatically. They are linked to their respective sites. You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information. I have to work tomorrow, and will not be available, but will try to have an update on Sunday.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS