SEVERE WEATHER / LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 11:00 A.M. EDT…APR. 18, 2016…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED!

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Good day everyone!

SPC THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORIESOutlook-category-descriptions

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) indicates a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms across S TX THROUGH THIS EVENING…

There is a MARGINAL risk EXTENDING E OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO MOUTH OF THE SABINE RIVER…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH LATE EVENING.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

Information contained in the outlook indicates the MCS bring flash flooding to the Houston area, has developed a cold pool, and is expanding east.  It appears the area will be under the gun today with more heavy rainfall, including damaging thunderstorm winds.  Regarding F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software, models had not updated at the time of my analysis, and the only items available were the SREF model from SPC, and some severe weather parameter maps from Harris Weathercaster.  Based on analysis of those model solutions, severe weather is most likely within the SPC slight risk area.  Based on various tornado parameters, it appears any isolated tornado activity should occur within and close to the red outline in the F5 DATA map.  SPC calls for only a 2% probability for tornado activity in the risk area.  Tornado parameters do not indicate anything strong at this time, should isolated tornadoes develop.

Flash Flood watches and warnings will be ongoing throughout the day.  PLEASE REFER TO THE NWS HAZARD AND WARNING MAP FOR YOUR AREA!

The following are projected rainfall totals through tomorrow, from the GFS.

GFS FORECAST RAIN TOTALS
GFS.24.RAIN
The following are current Doppler Radar loops from Houston, showing current rain, and up to date storm totals

CURRENT HOUSTON RADAR LOOP
HGX.N0Q.20160418.1435

CURRENT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
HGX.DSP.20160418.1434

The following graphics do not update automatically.  They are linked to their respective sites.  You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.  I have to work tomorrow, and will not be available.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP DISPLAY
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NWS RIDGE RADAR ACCESS

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COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

NCAR DOPPLER RADAR
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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