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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) indicates a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms across S TX THROUGH THIS EVENING…
There is a MARGINAL risk EXTENDING E OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO MOUTH OF THE SABINE RIVER…
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH LATE EVENING.
Information contained in the outlook indicates the MCS bring flash flooding to the Houston area, has developed a cold pool, and is expanding east. It appears the area will be under the gun today with more heavy rainfall, including damaging thunderstorm winds. Regarding F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software, models had not updated at the time of my analysis, and the only items available were the SREF model from SPC, and some severe weather parameter maps from Harris Weathercaster. Based on analysis of those model solutions, severe weather is most likely within the SPC slight risk area. Based on various tornado parameters, it appears any isolated tornado activity should occur within and close to the red outline in the F5 DATA map. SPC calls for only a 2% probability for tornado activity in the risk area. Tornado parameters do not indicate anything strong at this time, should isolated tornadoes develop.
Flash Flood watches and warnings will be ongoing throughout the day. PLEASE REFER TO THE NWS HAZARD AND WARNING MAP FOR YOUR AREA!
The following are projected rainfall totals through tomorrow, from the GFS.
The following graphics do not update automatically. They are linked to their respective sites. You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information. I have to work tomorrow, and will not be available.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS