SEVERE WEATHER / MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:20 A.M. EDT…APR. 13, 2016

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Good day everyone!

Please check my site often Mon- Wed, as I do not always get a chance to send my updates via personal e-mail.

SPC THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORIESOutlook-category-descriptions

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) indicates a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER SERN LA…

…SUMMARY…
A COUPLE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EARLY THIS MORNING.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

Based on the outlook text, and current satellite imagery, a MCV/MCC (Mesoscale Convective Vortex/Mesoscale Convective Complex) is currently moving slowly eastward and is located over portions of LA and MS.  Based on analysis of forecast sounding data using F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software, thermodynamics do not really support a tornado threat, and SPC has designated only a 2% probability in the risk area.  While an isolated, brief tornado could occur with any very strong cells, the threat of tornado activity appears to be the greatest offshore, and would constitute waterspout development.

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP (Click for animation)
latest_east_ir4_conus

Portions of the area are under a Flash Flood watch, and mainly further east into the FL. Panhandle.  A good amount of rain has already fallen over LA., and this heavy rainfall will continue east as the MCV moves east throughout the day.  The following graphics are accumulated storm totals from Lake Charles and New Orleans over the past 12 hours, and a current radar loop out of New Orleans.  Click graphics for the animation:

LAKE CHARLES 12 HOUR ACCUMULATION
LCH.DSP.20160413.1339

NEW ORLEANS 12 HOUR ACCUMULATION
LIX.DSP.20160413.1344

NEW ORLEANS DOPPLER RADAR
LIX.N0Q.20160413.1408

Based on analysis of current forecast sounding data from the GFS and NAM-WRF models concerning storm total precipitation, the outlined areas have a good probability of being affected by this system over the next 24 hours, and could experience flash flooding.  Please keep up to date on watches and warnings by clicking on the NWS HAZARDS for your area of concern.

F5 DATA BEST HEAVY RAINFALL PROBABILITY
f5 severerain

Residents within the risk area, and ahead of the system, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio.

The following graphics do not update automatically.  They are linked to their respective sites.  You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP DISPLAY
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NWS RIDGE RADAR ACCESS

ridge_sitemap

COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

NCAR DOPPLER RADAR
imap_radar

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER / MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:20 A.M. EDT…APR. 13, 2016

  1. originallt says:

    Incredible flooding in the Houston area, this Monday the 18th. Hope Monty is OK.

  2. dellamom says:

    Storm, I notice that local radar shows the weather to my east near Greg and Mike to be spinning and banding like a hurricane. The reds on the radar look like the typical depiction of a hurricane. Scary to look at.

  3. dellamom says:

    LT, we are. DMac, I hope you fare well through the next 2 days. Thank you immeasurably, Storm.

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, Looks like dellamom’s area getting pounded! Then onto Gregg in Mobile.

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