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Good day everyone!
Please check my site often Mon- Wed, as I do not always get a chance to send my updates via personal e-mail.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) indicates a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER SERN LA…
A COUPLE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EARLY THIS MORNING.
Based on the outlook text, and current satellite imagery, a MCV/MCC (Mesoscale Convective Vortex/Mesoscale Convective Complex) is currently moving slowly eastward and is located over portions of LA and MS. Based on analysis of forecast sounding data using F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software, thermodynamics do not really support a tornado threat, and SPC has designated only a 2% probability in the risk area. While an isolated, brief tornado could occur with any very strong cells, the threat of tornado activity appears to be the greatest offshore, and would constitute waterspout development.
Portions of the area are under a Flash Flood watch, and mainly further east into the FL. Panhandle. A good amount of rain has already fallen over LA., and this heavy rainfall will continue east as the MCV moves east throughout the day. The following graphics are accumulated storm totals from Lake Charles and New Orleans over the past 12 hours, and a current radar loop out of New Orleans. Click graphics for the animation:
Based on analysis of current forecast sounding data from the GFS and NAM-WRF models concerning storm total precipitation, the outlined areas have a good probability of being affected by this system over the next 24 hours, and could experience flash flooding. Please keep up to date on watches and warnings by clicking on the NWS HAZARDS for your area of concern.
Residents within the risk area, and ahead of the system, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio.
The following graphics do not update automatically. They are linked to their respective sites. You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS