SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SLIGHT RISK…ISSUED 11:40 A.M. EDT…APR. 12, 2016

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Good day everyone!

Please check my site often Mon- Wed, as I do not always get a chance to send my updates via personal e-mail.

SPC THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORIESOutlook-category-descriptions

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) indicates a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of S TX…as of the 1300Z day 1 convective outlook…

There is a MARGINAL risk from S CNTRL TX TO THE UPR TX GULF CST…and OVER SE LA…

…SUMMARY…
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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SPC DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY
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SPC DAY 1 WIND PROBABILITY
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SPC DAY 1 HAIL PROBABILITY
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Based on information contained in the current outlook text (1300Z), along with forecast soundings, MUCAPE (Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy), Mid level lapse rates, and Precipitable Water data, buoyancy will be enhanced and should support development of scattered supercells late this afternoon through evening, over the risk areas.

Based on analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather software, using both the RAP and NAM-WRF outputs, the severe activity should occur as indicated in the SPC maps.  Forecast tornado parameters at time of analysis did not indicate values for anything as far as significant tornadoes, and tornado activity may be isolated.

Although not indicated in the 1300Z maps from SPC, both the NAM-WRF and RAP forecast sounding solutions seem to indicate a probability of a risk for severe weather later tonight, further NW into Texas as indicated in the following outline.  RAP has shown this on both the 13Z and 14Z updates, and the NAM-WRF on the 06Z and 12Z runs.  Though not shown by SPC, I cannot ignore the model data, unless it is an anomalous error.

F5 DATA RAP POSSIBLE SECONDARY AREA SOLUTION
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Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio today and tonight.

The following graphics do not update automatically.  They are linked to their respective sites.  You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP DISPLAY
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NWS RIDGE RADAR ACCESS

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COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

NCAR DOPPLER RADAR
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SLIGHT RISK…ISSUED 11:40 A.M. EDT…APR. 12, 2016

  1. Greg Goodman says:

    Mr storms thankyou for the update. It is 50 days until the start of hurricane season. Mr storm I think this is going to be a weird hurricane season like our winter was.

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