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Good day everyone!
Please check my site often Mon- Wed, as I do not always get a chance to send my updates via personal e-mail.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) indicates an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of E TX…SE OK…SW AR…AND NRN LA…
There is a SLIGHT risk surrounding the enhanced area FROM E TX AND SE OK INTO MS…
There is a MARGINAL risk from parts of CNTRL TX E/NE INTO THE LWR TN AND LWR MS VLYS…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS…LOUISIANA…AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS…AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.
SPC DAY 1 HAIL PROBABILITY
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
The above graphics will most likely update at 1600Z on the SPC website, thus coverage may change slightly.
The SPC outlook text indicates today should be a fairly active convective day over Texas, SE Oklahoma, and into the lower Mississippi Valley region today, with the forecast suggesting activity should be ongoing into early tonight. Analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software, using the solution provided from the 12Z NAM-WRF model run, which more resembles the SPC risk outlines, suggests conditions are favorable for supercell development. SREF SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) indices were running between 1-6 earlier this morning. Data from the F5 software indicated various forecast sounding indices of the following, with lower values more indicative around the slight risk outline, and higher values close to and in the enhanced risk outline:
SBCAPE: 1500-2500 (small pocket of 3000) j/kg
MLCAPE :1000-2000 j/kg
LIFTED INDEX: -4 to -8
CRAVEN BROOKS INDEX : 20000-60000
These indices indicate severe hail is probable within the SPC outline, based on both the CAPE values, the Lifted Index, and Craven Brooks index. The EHI (Energy Helicity Index) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter), combined with all analyzed indices, indicates a high likelihood of some isolated strong / long track tornadoes, especially close to and within the enhanced risk, and severe hail outline. The white outline in the F5 maps dictates the best prob. of tornado activity, while the red outline indicates where stronger tornado activity could be experienced.
The following F5 DATA maps indicate where the best probability for tornado activity may occur, with the first being late afternoon, and the second being late afternoon into the evening hours. The SPC outlook and model output do suggest activity should begin to diminish with loss of diurnal heating this evening.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY (AFTERNOON)
F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY (EARLY/LATE EVENING)
Again, these areas could change somewhat, as models update throughout this afternoon.
The following graphics do not update automatically. They are linked to their respective sites. You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS