ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 11:00 A.M. EDT…APR. 11, 2016

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
money-dog-300x300

Good day everyone!

Please check my site often Mon- Wed, as I do not always get a chance to send my updates via personal e-mail.

SPC THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORIESOutlook-category-descriptions

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) indicates an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of E TX…SE OK…SW AR…AND NRN LA…

There is a SLIGHT risk surrounding the enhanced area FROM E TX AND SE OK INTO MS…

There is a MARGINAL risk from parts of CNTRL TX E/NE INTO THE LWR TN AND LWR MS VLYS…

…SUMMARY…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS…LOUISIANA…AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS…AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

SPC DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_torn

SPC DAY 1 WIND PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_wind

SPC DAY 1 HAIL PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_hail
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

The above graphics will most likely update at 1600Z on the SPC website, thus coverage may change slightly.

The SPC outlook text indicates today should be a fairly active convective day over Texas, SE Oklahoma, and into the lower Mississippi Valley region today, with the forecast suggesting activity should be ongoing into early tonight.  Analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software, using the solution provided from the 12Z NAM-WRF model run, which more resembles the SPC risk outlines, suggests conditions are favorable for supercell development. SREF SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) indices were running between 1-6 earlier this morning.  Data from the F5 software indicated various forecast sounding indices of the following, with lower values more indicative around the slight risk outline, and higher values close to and in the enhanced risk outline:

SBCAPE: 1500-2500 (small pocket of 3000) j/kg
MLCAPE :1000-2000 j/kg
LIFTED INDEX: -4 to -8
CRAVEN BROOKS INDEX : 20000-60000
EHI: 2-4
STP: 2-5

These indices indicate severe hail is probable within the SPC outline, based on both the CAPE values, the Lifted Index, and Craven Brooks index.  The EHI (Energy Helicity Index) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter), combined with all analyzed indices, indicates a high likelihood of some isolated strong / long track tornadoes, especially close to and within the enhanced risk, and severe hail outline.  The white outline in the F5 maps dictates the best prob. of tornado activity, while the red outline indicates where stronger tornado activity could be experienced.

The following F5 DATA maps indicate where the best probability for tornado activity may occur, with the first being late afternoon, and the second being late afternoon into the evening hours.  The SPC outlook and model output do suggest activity should begin to diminish with loss of diurnal heating this evening.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY (AFTERNOON)
f5 namtorday1

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY (EARLY/LATE EVENING)
f5 namtorday1.two

Again, these areas could change somewhat, as models update throughout this afternoon.

The following graphics do not update automatically.  They are linked to their respective sites.  You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP DISPLAY
usa_None_anim

NWS RIDGE RADAR ACCESS

ridge_sitemap

COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

NCAR DOPPLER RADAR
imap_radar

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Severe Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s