ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:55 P.M. EDT…APR. 10, 2016

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SPC THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORIESOutlook-category-descriptions

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) indicates an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms across portions of WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…

There is a SLIGHT risk from SERN KS/SWRN MO SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN N TX…and also across portions of S TX/THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY…

There is a MARGINAL risk surrounding the SLIGHT risk areas FROM MO SWWD ACROSS OK…AND SWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX…

…SUMMARY…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA…SOUTHEAST KANSAS…AND MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN…BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ALSO COULD OCCUR.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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SPC TORNADO PROBABILITY
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SPC WIND PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1630_wind

SPC HAIL PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1630_hail
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Based on the SPC outlook text, modest surface dewpoints may allow for higher based storms, which would limit overall tornado risk. Based on various forecast soundings using the F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software , the Bulk Richardson Number of 100-110, SBCAPE values of 2000-2500, and MLCAPE values of 1500 over the enhanced and slight risk areas over and IVO Oklahoma, indicate instability is much greater than shear, which would tend to support mutli cell, or squall line thunderstorms, vice supercell development.

The greatest threat appears to be damaging hail, as shown in the SPC map, which is backed up by the SBCAPE and MLCAPE values, along with a Lifted Index of -6 to -8.

Analysis of various tornado indices indicate the white outlined area has the highest probability of isolated tornado development, with the red outlined area being at risk for an isolated incident of any tornadoes that may develop, to be possible strong and long tracked.  This is based on a blend of the current NAM-WRF and RAP model solutions.  Based on a blend of timing between the two models, The risk areas should expect arrival of the severe threat beginning late afternoon, through the evening hours, from around 4:00 p.m. CST onward.

F5 DATA RAP/NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
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The following F5  map indicates the position of the dryline during the forecast times

F5 DATA NAM-WRF DRYLINE POSITION
f5.nam.dryline4

The following graphics do not update automatically.  They are linked to their respective sites.  You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP DISPLAY
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NWS RIDGE RADAR ACCESS

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COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

NCAR DOPPLER RADAR
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:55 P.M. EDT…APR. 10, 2016

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Looks like severe threat is N and W of IAH. We shall see. We’re supposed to get some heavier stuff tonight and tomorrow. Skies are darkening.

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