For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site. The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) indicates an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms across portions of WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…
There is a SLIGHT risk from SERN KS/SWRN MO SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN N TX…and also across portions of S TX/THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY…
There is a MARGINAL risk surrounding the SLIGHT risk areas FROM MO SWWD ACROSS OK…AND SWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA…SOUTHEAST KANSAS…AND MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN…BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ALSO COULD OCCUR.
SPC HAIL PROBABILITY
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Based on the SPC outlook text, modest surface dewpoints may allow for higher based storms, which would limit overall tornado risk. Based on various forecast soundings using the F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software , the Bulk Richardson Number of 100-110, SBCAPE values of 2000-2500, and MLCAPE values of 1500 over the enhanced and slight risk areas over and IVO Oklahoma, indicate instability is much greater than shear, which would tend to support mutli cell, or squall line thunderstorms, vice supercell development.
The greatest threat appears to be damaging hail, as shown in the SPC map, which is backed up by the SBCAPE and MLCAPE values, along with a Lifted Index of -6 to -8.
Analysis of various tornado indices indicate the white outlined area has the highest probability of isolated tornado development, with the red outlined area being at risk for an isolated incident of any tornadoes that may develop, to be possible strong and long tracked. This is based on a blend of the current NAM-WRF and RAP model solutions. Based on a blend of timing between the two models, The risk areas should expect arrival of the severe threat beginning late afternoon, through the evening hours, from around 4:00 p.m. CST onward.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF DRYLINE POSITION
The following graphics do not update automatically. They are linked to their respective sites. You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS