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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) indicates a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms for portions of MIDDLE TN…NERN MS…CENTRAL/NRN AL…NWRN GA…
A MARGINAL risk has been designated from PARTS OF LOWER OH VALLEY TO WRN MS…SRN AL AND CENTRAL GA….
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN SURROUNDING AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.
Based on analysis of the SPC outlook text, today’s threat pretty much repeats conditions seen yesterday…direr air/limited moisture over the risk area, moderate SBCAPE and MLCAPE values, etc. Based on analysis of the early morning runs of both the RAP and NAM-WRF models using F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software, surface dewpoints are forecast to only reach AOB 50F, with relative humidity once again AOB 50%. Surface Based Convective Available Potential Energy (SBCAPE) and Mixed Layer Convective Available Potential Energy (MLCAPE) values from the forecast soundings, are only forecast to average 500 j/kg, and the Lifted Index (LI) at -2. The lack of strong instability and weak lift, should mean that any hail event should only produce small hail. Based on the BRN (Bulk Richardson Number) index, supercell development should have a slim chance, but isolated supercells may not ruled out in the slightly more favorable environment in and just east of the risk area over MS. Any supercells that develop, should be transient and brief, as the thermodynamics and kinematics are favoring more linear type storms. Analysis of the forecast soundings DID NOT indicate any significant values to warrant concern for tornadoes, in which the SPC indicates >2% probability for tornadoes. Based on a blend of the model solutions, forecast soundings currently indicate the following outlined area to have the best probability of experiencing severe thunderstorms. Timing is pretty much close to yesterdays threat, in that the best chance of any severe weather should begin around late afternoon, and begin to wane just after sunset.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF/RAP BEST SEVERE PROBABILITY
The following graphics do not update automatically. They are linked to their respective sites. You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
I have to work during the next 3 days, so updates will not be available…please use the sites for your convenience.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS