SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 11:30 A.M. EDT…APR. 05, 2016

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) indicates a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms over portions of the LOWER MO VALLEY TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS
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DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_wind

DAY1 HAIL PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_hail

Based on analysis of the outlook text from SPC, and verification from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, moisture in the lower levels will be sparse, with model solutions indicating surface dewpoints and relative humidity AOB 50F and 50%.  Based on the lack of sufficient moisture, limited SB and MLCAPE values of between 500 j/kg to a small pocket of 1000 j/kg, and a forecast Lifted Index of -2 to -4, and a BRN Number of 10-20, it appears thunderstorm activity may remain elevated in nature, and possibly more quasi-linear in nature.  However, there could be a brief period of an isolated supercell, should the convection venture into a little more favorable environment. Given that current forecast soundings tend to indicate shear is greater than instability, the chance for supercell development may be on the slim side.  The SPC indicates less than a 2% prob. of tornado activity within the risk area, and F5 DATA software indicates the same slim probability, given the lack of any significant tornado forecast sounding indices.

Based on model solutions from both the NAM-WRF, and recent RAP model runs, the most severe weather and greatest probability for these threats, including any isolated tornadoes should they come to fruition, should lie within the outlined area in the following F5 DATA map.  The most severe weather appears to be on tap for late afternoon, and should begin to wane after sunset.  The second F5 map indicates relative humidity and surface dewpoints.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF/RAP MODEL SOLUTION BLEND
f5.nam.rap.severe

f5.nam.rap.severe.moisture

The SPC also indicates a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms for tomorrow, in the day 2 outlook.  I’ll try to have an update on this sometime tomorrow.

SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
day2otlk_0600

The following graphics do not update automatically.  They are linked to their respective sites.  You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAYvalidww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
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SPC RISK CATEGORIES
Outlook-category-descriptions

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP DISPLAY
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NWS RIDGE RADAR ACCESS

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COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR (ONCE YOU CLICK A LOCATION, MOUSE OVER TO THE VERY LEFT OF YOUR SCREEN TO LOOP IMAGES)
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

NCAR DOPPLER RADAR
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 11:30 A.M. EDT…APR. 05, 2016

  1. grannyMS says:

    Thank you, Storm 🙂

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