PRELIMINARY SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…PRE-SEASON HURRICANE INFORMATION…ISSUED 12:15 P.M. EDT…APR. 04, 2016

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) indicates a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY…in the current day 2 Convective Outlook.

…SUMMARY…
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING…WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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Based on the current outlook and analysis of the current forecast sounding information from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, deep convection may be capped (suppressed) until the afternoon hours.  Based on various forecast sounding indices of the SWEAT index, Totals Totals index, BRN (Bulk Richardson Number), and Craven Brooks Number, the forecast soundings indicate Severe Thunderstorms and Supercell development may be likely and should be isolated to widely scattered.  At the moment, forecast soundings did not indicate enough parameters to warrant a tornado threat, however this will be re-analyzed tomorrow with new model data. The areas at risk with regard to the F5 DATA NAM-WRF model output, closely resembles the current marginal risk area, with the solution indicating initiation mid to late afternoon, with the greatest activity possibly occurring between 4:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. CST.  The following map is to be considered preliminary, until I can re-visit update model information between the RAP and NAM-WRF.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST SEVERE PROBABILITY (PRELIMINARY)
f5 nam severe.4-7pmcst

The SPC also indicates another MARGINAL risk area for Wednesday in the current day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
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I took the liberty of updating my “weather folder” on my computer hard drive, so I’ll have more choices in satellite and radar images for the upcoming hurricane season, speaking of which, June 01, 2016 is not far away!  I will most likely begin issuance of my tropical products 2 weeks prior, which is the start of the Eastern Pacific season, just to familiarize you again of how the tropical forecast is laid out.

In the meantime, I thought it to be a good idea to post some pre-season information for you, that you can save and have handy.  FYI, I use to display hurricane forecast track maps via GT7 (Global Tracks), however for some unknown reason, the version I had quit working, and the original site no longer supports it.  Thus, all maps are from HURREVAC, and all the graphics associated with it are the NHC maps and graphics, but with its own look.

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

HURRICANE CLIMATOLOGY AND POINTS OF ORIGIN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

HURRICANE NAMES (Alex has already been used this year)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS GUIDE (CLICK ON THE GRAPHIC)
HurricaneWeek_Slider

AGAINST THE WIND (CLICK ON THE GRAPHIC)
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PET EVACUATION AND SHELTERS
http://petfriendlytravel.com/pet_shelters

READY (PREPARE, PLAN, STAY INFORMED)
[For individuals with disabilities]
https://www.ready.gov/individuals-access-functional-needs

HURRICANE PREPARATION FOR BOATERS (CLICK ON THE GRAPHIC)
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NHC MARINERS GUIDE (CLICK ON THE GRAPHIC)
Atlantic_Hurricanes_September_26,_1998

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to PRELIMINARY SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…PRE-SEASON HURRICANE INFORMATION…ISSUED 12:15 P.M. EDT…APR. 04, 2016

  1. stuffunee says:

    Thanks Storm! Great info as always.

  2. Here in the South-Texas, Coastal-Bend we (I) rely on your expertise in following the upcoming Atlantic-Basin cyclonic activity-analyses. It forms our basis of how we react to the season before us! We are now in the midst of investing in a new roof, because the old-one (now over 30 yrs. old) is unlikely to stand up to a 50 knot wind (with no convection at all) for very long! Even a twenty knot wind, the other night, left pieces of asphalt-shingles scattered through-out our front yard, (and our neighbors too !) The roofers are expected to finish up tomorrow – noon! We’ll see!!
    I undertake this project with some trepidation because I feel that, whether-or-not the house blows away, I will not be living here for much longer!!! Why fix up the old house, when at age 85 I will probably be leaving here soon, anyway !

    I guess a sale is better than trying to collect insurance!

    BeachBums of Port Aransas
    http://www.skalandzunos.com

  3. Greg Goodman says:

    Thankyou Mr storm a great deal of information on the upcoming hurricane season.

  4. dellamom says:

    WOW! What a lot of hurricane tools. Thank you, Storm.

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