ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:40 A.M. EDT…MAR. 30, 2016…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

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Good day everyone!

Based on yesterdays preliminary severe weather forecast sounding indices, it was my presumption that a moderate risk area would be designated today.  However, current analysis has shown these indices to be almost borderline.  This would explain the SPC designation of a moderate risk.  In either case, and upgrade to the risk status was initiated.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms from portions of  NERN TX…SERN OK…SRN AR…NRN LA…AND WRN MS…

There is a SLIGHT risk  FROM SRN IA SWD INTO ERN TX/LA/MS…

There is a MARGINAL risk SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA…

…SUMMARY…
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS
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day1probotlk_1300_torn
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

day1probotlk_1300_hail
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

day1probotlk_1300_wind

Analysis of the current posted outlook from SPC indicates a very complex pattern for today, regarding this severe weather event.  The enhanced risk area will be under the influence of the left exit region of a power 125-135 knot jetstreak, along with ample helicity (twisting in the atmosphere).  Analysis of the current runs of the NAM-WRF and RAP models indicate moderate to strong instability with SBCAPE values reaching 1500 j/kg on the outer regions of the enhanced outline or within the slight risk area, with them becoming elevated to around 2000-2500 j/kg near and within the enhanced risk area.  Lifted Indices are forecast to reach -6 to -8.  These values are indicative to the formation of large, damaging hail.  Based on a blend of the NAM-WRF and RAP models, with more emphasis place on the RAP, as the area coverage of various indices closely resembles the SPC enhanced risk outline in the 12Z outlook map, using F5 DATA Severe Weather software forecast soundings, the following outline depicts where the most likely probability for tornadic activity to occur, in which STP parameters ranging from 2-5, and EHI indices reaching 3-4, indicating any tornadoes in this area could become strong and long track.  The current time for initiation, based on the current model information seems to be just after NOON, closer to 1:00 p.m. CDT, and running through the afternoon.  As the dryline progresses eastward, tornado activity may be tempered, with only weak capping in place.  Based on model information and SPC thoughts, another round is forecast into the evening and overnight hours.  Model graphics at the moment suggest however, during the early afternoon hours, tornado activity could extend further eastward into MS and further NWD into AK.  By early evening, the activity appears to shift back west according to the model graphics.  My educated guess is, this would be due to the retreat of the dryline later tonight.  In any case residents in both the enhanced, and slight risk areas should maintain vigilance for possible strong, long track tornadoes, more prevalent in the enhanced risk area, and isolated in the eastern half of the slight risk area from an OK./AK. line, southward.

IF A TORNADO WARNING is issued for your area…TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

F5 DATA RAP BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
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The SPC does indicate another ENHANCED threat for Thursday.

I will not be available on Thursday as I have to work, so please use the graphics that follow to remain up to date by clicking on them, as well as the SPC link:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
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NWS RIDGE RADAR
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NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY
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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:40 A.M. EDT…MAR. 30, 2016…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Looks like Gregg’s area around Mobile Al. is getting clobbered today. We expect an arctic front to pass thru my area Sat. night into Sunday with very strong winds(up to 60mph gusts) and rain squalls turning into snow squalls by Sunday morning!.

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. Heck, by the time hurricane season hits the Gulf South, we won’t have anything left to flood or be taken by tornadoes! This has been a crazy month, and it doesn’t look like April is shaping up much better. I appreciate having this site to explain things and give me the tools to check things out between reports. God Bless my fellow Louisianians and all others in the path of the latest storms. DMac, I hope you fare well through the next few days. So far I have been OK.

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