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Good day everyone!
Based on yesterdays preliminary severe weather forecast sounding indices, it was my presumption that a moderate risk area would be designated today. However, current analysis has shown these indices to be almost borderline. This would explain the SPC designation of a moderate risk. In either case, and upgrade to the risk status was initiated.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms from portions of NERN TX…SERN OK…SRN AR…NRN LA…AND WRN MS…
There is a SLIGHT risk FROM SRN IA SWD INTO ERN TX/LA/MS…
There is a MARGINAL risk SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA…
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
Analysis of the current posted outlook from SPC indicates a very complex pattern for today, regarding this severe weather event. The enhanced risk area will be under the influence of the left exit region of a power 125-135 knot jetstreak, along with ample helicity (twisting in the atmosphere). Analysis of the current runs of the NAM-WRF and RAP models indicate moderate to strong instability with SBCAPE values reaching 1500 j/kg on the outer regions of the enhanced outline or within the slight risk area, with them becoming elevated to around 2000-2500 j/kg near and within the enhanced risk area. Lifted Indices are forecast to reach -6 to -8. These values are indicative to the formation of large, damaging hail. Based on a blend of the NAM-WRF and RAP models, with more emphasis place on the RAP, as the area coverage of various indices closely resembles the SPC enhanced risk outline in the 12Z outlook map, using F5 DATA Severe Weather software forecast soundings, the following outline depicts where the most likely probability for tornadic activity to occur, in which STP parameters ranging from 2-5, and EHI indices reaching 3-4, indicating any tornadoes in this area could become strong and long track. The current time for initiation, based on the current model information seems to be just after NOON, closer to 1:00 p.m. CDT, and running through the afternoon. As the dryline progresses eastward, tornado activity may be tempered, with only weak capping in place. Based on model information and SPC thoughts, another round is forecast into the evening and overnight hours. Model graphics at the moment suggest however, during the early afternoon hours, tornado activity could extend further eastward into MS and further NWD into AK. By early evening, the activity appears to shift back west according to the model graphics. My educated guess is, this would be due to the retreat of the dryline later tonight. In any case residents in both the enhanced, and slight risk areas should maintain vigilance for possible strong, long track tornadoes, more prevalent in the enhanced risk area, and isolated in the eastern half of the slight risk area from an OK./AK. line, southward.
IF A TORNADO WARNING is issued for your area…TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
The SPC does indicate another ENHANCED threat for Thursday.
I will not be available on Thursday as I have to work, so please use the graphics that follow to remain up to date by clicking on them, as well as the SPC link:
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS