SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE GOMEX LOW…ISSUED 1:00 P.M. EST…MAR. 29, 2016

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms across parts of SRN FL…and across parts of the CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…

…SUMMARY…
THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS…CAPABLE OF A HAIL AND/OR WIND THREAT…IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

Based on probabilities in the outlook, the main threat appears to be a 5% percent probability of both damaging thunderstorm gusts and hail in the marginal risk area.  I had just finished analyzing severe weather parameters from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, and forecast sounding indices really did not show very much in the way of favorable severe weather parameters.  This is not to say however, that some isolated cells COULD become severe in nature due to local conditions. The model solutions this morning, pointed toward more of a threat to the west central Florida area, vs south Florida. I will have all the graphics I normally post for you to retrieve up to date information, following the day 2 and day 3 preliminary outlooks.

The SPC has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the current day 2 outlook for SERN NEB AND CENTRAL IA TO PORTIONS WRN GULF COAST…

There is a MARGINAL risk surrounding the slight risk area FROM NRN IA TO WRN/CENTRAL GULF COAST AND S TX…

…SUMMARY…
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. DAMAGING WIND…LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_0600

The following should be considered PRELIMINARY at this stage of the forecast period, to allow modeling to run parameters today and see what the model solution indicates early in the morning.  At the moment however, analysis of the current model run of the NAM-WRF (RAP model does not go out past 12 hours), using graphic information from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, forecast sounding indices indicate some strong severe weather values, for the time frame of 7:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. CST. in the following outline.  Just for example, SWEAT (Severe WEAther Threat) values ranged from 375 – 600 over most of the outlined region with F5 DATA Severe index indicating percentages of 50-60, with Craven Brooks indices of 20,000-30,000.  Whether alone or combined, the meaning of these indices indicates severe thunderstorms are likely, along with a few significant hail, wind, or tornado events.  But again, based on the fact this solution is more than 24 hours out in the period, I want to give the modeling a chance to adjust themselves to changing conditions. IF this solution persists, it would not surprise me to see SPC upgrade a portion of the outlook to moderate.  I am going to try and be on again in the a.m. with an update regarding this outlook.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY (PRELIMINARY)
f5 severe

The SPC has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the day 3 outlook for portions of the LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO WRN GA…

There is a MARGINAL risk ELSEWHERE FROM SRN LOWER MI TO CENTRAL GULF COAST…

…SUMMARY… THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE GULF COAST; HOWEVER…THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO WESTERN GEORGIA.

SPC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
day3otlk_0730

I will not be available on Thursday as I have to work, so please use the graphics that follow to remain up to date by clicking on them, as well as the SPC link:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
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NWS RIDGE RADAR
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NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY
US

Elsewhere, this is nothing to be alarmed about, and right now, the GFS seems to be the outlier, however the GFS, FIM 8 and FIM 9 models indicate a low should develop over the GOMEX in approximately 5-7 days, which crosses the Florida peninsula, then moves NE out to sea into the Atlantic, and should only be a concern for shipping.  Based on my analysis of the current forecast maps, and wind shear, this should remain a baroclinic feature.  Based on the 500 mb mean anomaly forecast from the ESRL site, 500 mb pressures over the GOMEX are not forecast to lower during that time.  The most recent NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis tracking package dose indicate a low crossing the FL. peninsula during that time by both the GFS and Multi model solutions.  Just thought it would be something interesting to watch.

GFS 120 AND 162 HOUR FORECASTGFS.120
GFS.162

FIM 8
FIM8wind_10m_f120

FIM9
FIM9wind_10m_f108

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE GOMEX LOW…ISSUED 1:00 P.M. EST…MAR. 29, 2016

  1. Thanks Storm for your analyses,
    That “stuff” that ran bye us this AM in the Gulf seems to be headed your way. We’re grateful that it didn’t hit us, but sorry that it was close enough that the roofers working on our home didn’t see fit to stick around much today! Maybe they’ll get back to work tomorrow! Looking forward to a few days of reasonable weather here in the Coastal Bend to get things done before the bad-weather season gets underway!

  2. dkmac says:

    We certainly don’t need any more in S.E. Louisiana. A couple of the local rivers still haven’t fallen below flood stage. I still have a few puddles in my yard left over from Sunday’s rain event.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Looks like the main dish stays North and East of IAH. I’m sure models will change their minds. Just as you say. Hope all is well LT. Stay safe Dellamom. 🙂

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