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Good day everyone!
A little bit of a break in severe weather until Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the current day 3 outlook from a portion of the CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY…
A MARGINAL risk is designated from a portion of the PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY AREAS…
…SUMMARY… STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. DAMAGING WIND…LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
I will try to have an update regarding this on Wednesday.
Elsewhere, for giggles and grins, the CMC GGEM model is showing a sub-tropical low east of the Bahamas in 10 days…LOL!
CMC GGEM 240 HOURS
I periodically keep analyzing parameters regarding my seasonal forecast for the upcoming hurricane season. Looking at the current ENSO trend and forecast, 1954 appears to have popped into one of the analog years. Until further update of various forecast items, and based on these two analogs of 1998 and 1954, I have no reason at this time to change my preliminary forecast, which stands at:
Total Storms: 12 – 14
Total Hurricanes: 6-7
Total Intense Hurricanes: 2-3
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS