PRELIMINARY SEVERE WEATHER EXCERPT…ISSUED 12:50 P.M. EST…MAR. 28, 2016

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Good day everyone!

A little bit of a break in severe weather until Wednesday.  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the current day 3 outlook from a portion of the CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY…

A MARGINAL risk is designated from a portion of the PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY AREAS…

…SUMMARY… STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. DAMAGING WIND…LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SPC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
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I will try to have an update regarding this on Wednesday.

Elsewhere, for giggles and grins, the CMC GGEM model is showing a sub-tropical low east of the Bahamas in 10 days…LOL!

CMC GGEM 240 HOURS
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I periodically keep analyzing parameters regarding my seasonal forecast for the upcoming hurricane season.  Looking at the current ENSO trend and forecast, 1954 appears to have popped into one of the analog years.  Until further update of various forecast items, and based on these two analogs of 1998 and 1954, I have no reason at this time to change my preliminary forecast, which stands at:

Total Storms: 12 – 14
Total Hurricanes: 6-7
Total Intense Hurricanes: 2-3

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to PRELIMINARY SEVERE WEATHER EXCERPT…ISSUED 12:50 P.M. EST…MAR. 28, 2016

  1. dellamom says:

    Thanks, Monty. It looks like you, MSGranny and my area will all be under the gun tomorrow, moving eastward on Thursday to cover Mike and Greg in Mobile, as well as Mississippi and Louisiana. Louisiana areas north of Lake Pontchartrain don’t need any more rain. The ground has no absorption left and people are still working on getting back into flooded homes. I would imagine the north and central parts of the state are in a similar condition. Thank you, Storm, for providing us the insight and the tools to know what’s coming our way. I am glad you had a wonderful Easter day. You deserve it.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Always very greatful for your synopsis. Look for a donation coming your way soon. Hello Dellamom and LT. Hope all is well. Wheeesh. Crazy WX for both of you. We’ve gotten spared in IAH and SAT. Best wishes to all and stay safe. Storm…hope you had a great Easter as well as everyone!!!

  3. dellamom says:

    Blizzards to the north of us, tropical storms to the south, here we are, stuck in the middle with you! Sorry, couldn’t resist. Thanks for all your hard work. We had lots of heavy rain and thunderstorms most of the weekend, but not nearly so much south of the lake. What a difference 25 miles can make. Prayers to all in the North/Northeast and to the farmers whose crops may be harmed by the arctic air.

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