SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:25 A.M. EDT…MAR. 23, 2016

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms for the ARKLATEX REGION TO NERN MO/WRN IL…

There is a MARGINAL risk elsewhere from S-CENTRAL/SE TX TO IL/INDIANA BORDER REGION AND WWD TO SRN IA/SERN NEB…

The following is an update of graphics and coverage by the SPC at 1630 UTC.  The day 1 convective outlook is linked to the outlook text, addressing the new coverage of the update risk areas.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1630

SPC TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1630_torn

SPC DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1630_wind

SPC HAIL PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1630_hail

Based on information contained in the outlook, a combination of a cold front and dryline will play the main role in severe weather today.  It appears this may initiate by late afternoon.  Morning soundings around the slight risk area indicated an inversion layer at 850 mb to just below 700 mb.  Based on analysis of various maps, the atmosphere may be capped most of the day IVO and somewhat east of the dryline.  However, forecast cooling for the mid level to upper level indicates the cap will be overcome, and storms may initiate approximately around 4:00 p.m. CDT.  Analysis of the NAM-WRF solution suggests the severe threat and storms to become strongest from around 7:00 p.m. CDT to the extreme early morning, just after midnight.  Based on forecast sounding indices, the model solution agrees with the SPC forecast of some large hail today, which based on the indices, may be the strongest from AK., southward.

Based on the most recent forecast soundings from the NAM-WRF, using F5 DATA Severe Weather software, the following maps indicate where the best probability for tornadoes may occur.  The value of the indices suggests there could be some isolated tornadoes within the stronger supercells could become strong and long track.  I cannot totally rule out that the tornado threat could extend eastward into AK more by late tonight.  The set of maps following these, indicates the position of the dryline during the times indicated.  OF NOTE, the SPC has added another 5% area for a tornado threat over a small portion of MO., IA., and NE.  Albeit the current model updates from the NAM-WRF and RAP models do not indicate such parameters, the SPC outlook indicates the area outline will be in the bent back area of the attendant warm frontal sector, and could allow for isolated tornado activity.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 4:00 P.M. CDT
f5.tor.4pm

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 7:00 P.M. CDT
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F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 10:00 P.M. CDT
f5.tor.10pm

F5 DATA NAM-WRF DRYLINE 4:00 P.M. -10:00 P.M. CDT
f5.nam.dryline4

f5.nam.dryline7

f5.nam.dryline10

The SPC has designated a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms for Thursday in the Day 2 outlook.  I will not be available tomorrow, but click the link for the latest outlook on the SPC site.  I’ll leave the graphics in place, so you may use them to stay informed.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

The following graphics do not update automatically.  They are linked to their respective sites.  You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAYvalidww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAYvalidmd

SPC RISK CATEGORIES
Outlook-category-descriptions

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP DISPLAY
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NWS RIDGE RADAR ACCESS
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:25 A.M. EDT…MAR. 23, 2016

  1. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, hey, I see Monty’s old “Stomping grounds” are being hit with a Blizzard!

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