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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms for the ARKLATEX REGION TO NERN MO/WRN IL…
There is a MARGINAL risk elsewhere from S-CENTRAL/SE TX TO IL/INDIANA BORDER REGION AND WWD TO SRN IA/SERN NEB…
The following is an update of graphics and coverage by the SPC at 1630 UTC. The day 1 convective outlook is linked to the outlook text, addressing the new coverage of the update risk areas.
Based on information contained in the outlook, a combination of a cold front and dryline will play the main role in severe weather today. It appears this may initiate by late afternoon. Morning soundings around the slight risk area indicated an inversion layer at 850 mb to just below 700 mb. Based on analysis of various maps, the atmosphere may be capped most of the day IVO and somewhat east of the dryline. However, forecast cooling for the mid level to upper level indicates the cap will be overcome, and storms may initiate approximately around 4:00 p.m. CDT. Analysis of the NAM-WRF solution suggests the severe threat and storms to become strongest from around 7:00 p.m. CDT to the extreme early morning, just after midnight. Based on forecast sounding indices, the model solution agrees with the SPC forecast of some large hail today, which based on the indices, may be the strongest from AK., southward.
Based on the most recent forecast soundings from the NAM-WRF, using F5 DATA Severe Weather software, the following maps indicate where the best probability for tornadoes may occur. The value of the indices suggests there could be some isolated tornadoes within the stronger supercells could become strong and long track. I cannot totally rule out that the tornado threat could extend eastward into AK more by late tonight. The set of maps following these, indicates the position of the dryline during the times indicated. OF NOTE, the SPC has added another 5% area for a tornado threat over a small portion of MO., IA., and NE. Albeit the current model updates from the NAM-WRF and RAP models do not indicate such parameters, the SPC outlook indicates the area outline will be in the bent back area of the attendant warm frontal sector, and could allow for isolated tornado activity.
The SPC has designated a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms for Thursday in the Day 2 outlook. I will not be available tomorrow, but click the link for the latest outlook on the SPC site. I’ll leave the graphics in place, so you may use them to stay informed.
The following graphics do not update automatically. They are linked to their respective sites. You must mouse over and click the graphics for current, up to date information.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS