SEVERE WEATHER PRELIMINARY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 12:15 P.M. EDT…MAR. 22, 2016

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Good day everyone!

Well, looks like the coastal storm took the faster solution of the models from the other day…it just up and moved outta here!  Thought I’d have had the chance to catch it and update on it.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the current day 2 outlook across EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX AND OZARKS…

A MARGINAL risk exists from CENTRAL/EAST TX TO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST…

…SUMMARY…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS…BUT POSSIBLY ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.

Upon analysis of the outlook, SPC indicates that thunderstorm development may occur, beginning late afternoon, but more toward and after sunset and associated with the attendant cold front/dryline.  This appears to pan out after analyzing the current NAM-WRF run in the F5 DATA Severe Weather software, in which forecast soundings at the moment, indicate the severe weather threat to remain prominent into the very early morning hours near approximately 1:00 a.m. CDT, at which time the severe weather threat is forecast to move into the eastern portion of the risk areas over eastern AK.

Current forecast soundings indicate the threat of severe weather to be greatest, beginning around 7:00 p.m. CDT, into 1:00 a.m. CDT on Thursday.  The following F5 DATA maps are outlined around the greatest forecast sounding indices with the first map indicating the areas at greatest risk for both severe thunderstorm and tornado activity from 7:00 p.m. – 10:00 p.m. CDT, and the second map indicating the same threats for around 1:00a.m. CDT Thursday.  Given the forecast soundings are so far out in time, and without comparison to the RAP model, these maps are to be considered preliminary.  I will try to have an update tomorrow.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST SEVERE/TOR PROBABILITY 7:00 P.M.-10:00 P.M. CDT FOR WED
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F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST SEVERE/TOR PROBABILITY 1:00 A.M. CDT FOR THU
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The SPC has also indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the day 3 outlook for Thursday.  I am not sure I will be updating on Thursday, as my youngest son and I will be doing some father and son things, early.  However, the tools will be here for you to click on, to have up to date information regarding the severe weather.

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKday3otlk_0730

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP DISPLAY
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NWS RIDGE RADAR ACCESS
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER PRELIMINARY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 12:15 P.M. EDT…MAR. 22, 2016

  1. Greg Goodman says:

    Thankyou for the update Mr storm. Mr storm do you think this hurricane season will be like last hurricane season?

  2. Greg Goodman says:

    Hello Mr storm it is 71 days until hurricane season. Mr storm do you think this will a less active season?

  3. grannyMS says:

    I am in South MS, on the Coast, I am glad to see we are in the light green 🙂 Thank you, Storm!

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Guess our best shot for severe WX is Thursday morning…at least according to our Mets in IAH. Looks like SPC would beg to differ. Oh well. Definitely keeping an eye on it. Hope you are doing well Storm…Dellamom…LT and everyone else!

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