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Good day everyone!
Well, looks like the coastal storm took the faster solution of the models from the other day…it just up and moved outta here! Thought I’d have had the chance to catch it and update on it.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the current day 2 outlook across EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX AND OZARKS…
A MARGINAL risk exists from CENTRAL/EAST TX TO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS…BUT POSSIBLY ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.
Upon analysis of the outlook, SPC indicates that thunderstorm development may occur, beginning late afternoon, but more toward and after sunset and associated with the attendant cold front/dryline. This appears to pan out after analyzing the current NAM-WRF run in the F5 DATA Severe Weather software, in which forecast soundings at the moment, indicate the severe weather threat to remain prominent into the very early morning hours near approximately 1:00 a.m. CDT, at which time the severe weather threat is forecast to move into the eastern portion of the risk areas over eastern AK.
Current forecast soundings indicate the threat of severe weather to be greatest, beginning around 7:00 p.m. CDT, into 1:00 a.m. CDT on Thursday. The following F5 DATA maps are outlined around the greatest forecast sounding indices with the first map indicating the areas at greatest risk for both severe thunderstorm and tornado activity from 7:00 p.m. – 10:00 p.m. CDT, and the second map indicating the same threats for around 1:00a.m. CDT Thursday. Given the forecast soundings are so far out in time, and without comparison to the RAP model, these maps are to be considered preliminary. I will try to have an update tomorrow.
The SPC has also indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the day 3 outlook for Thursday. I am not sure I will be updating on Thursday, as my youngest son and I will be doing some father and son things, early. However, the tools will be here for you to click on, to have up to date information regarding the severe weather.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS