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Good day everyone!
I missed everyone yesterday, and wish I could have put out a forecast. Unfortunately, I was sitting with my oldest son in the emergency room from 10:00 a.m. to almost 9:00 p.m. yesterday.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon/evening for NE MO…EXTREME SE IA…AND W CENTRAL IL…
A SLIGHT risk has been designated through tonight FROM NRN MO TO SW LOWER MI…
A MARGINAL risk has been designated through tonight FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES…
…SUMMARY… SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI…AND STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING…WHILE THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
The enhanced risk area was added during the SPC 1300 map update.
Based on my analysis of the SPC outlook, the portion regarding the MLCAPE values, there is just a subtle difference between the 13Z RAP run and the 12Z NAM-WRF run. In splitting the difference, MLCAPE values are forecast to be AOA 1500 j/kg over the risk areas, with a more centralized pockets close to 2000 j/kg closer to the enhanced risk area, and toward the center of the slight risk area. SBCAPE values may approach 2000 j/kg, with pockets of 2500 j/kg embedded, based on current forecast soundings. The acronyms may be found by accessing the abbreviations page at the top of my page. Just click on abbreviations.
Given the CAPE values, and with lifted indices forecast to be at around -4 to -6 over the risk areas, large damaging hail is possible as mentioned in the SPC outlook. Based on this, and a combination of other severe indices in the forecast soundings, the onset for the most severe probabilities appears to be approximately 3:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m. CST, then extending eastward and NEWD by evening, with the greatest potential occurring near 6:00 – 7:00 p.m. CST. Based on the forecast indices, which have been fairly consistent in both model solutions, the best severe weather probs should lie within the outlined area (first map) and best tornado probs in the outlined area (second map). This activity however, could extend into the NE extension of the slight risk area, further into IL. Again, this is using a blend of both model solutions. Based on a combination of some severe weather indices, and tornado parameter indices, I cannot rule out that some isolated tornadoes may be strong and long tracked, however based on what current information I have, I am not looking for an outbreak.
Residents within the SPC risk areas should closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements today, into late afternoon
IF a Tornado Warning is issued for your area…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
ALL of the following graphics are linked to their respective sites, as the graphics do not update automatically. Please click on them for up to date information.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS