SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 11:00 A.M. EST…MAR. 15, 2016

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Good day everyone!

I missed everyone yesterday, and wish I could have put out a forecast.  Unfortunately, I was sitting with my oldest son in the emergency room from 10:00 a.m. to almost 9:00 p.m. yesterday.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon/evening for NE MO…EXTREME SE IA…AND W CENTRAL IL…

A SLIGHT risk has been designated through tonight FROM NRN MO TO SW LOWER MI…

A MARGINAL risk has been designated through tonight FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES…

…SUMMARY… SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI…AND STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING…WHILE THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

The enhanced risk area was added during the SPC 1300 map update.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

day1probotlk_1300_torn

Based on my analysis of the SPC outlook, the portion regarding the MLCAPE values, there is just a subtle difference between the 13Z RAP run and the 12Z NAM-WRF run.  In splitting the difference, MLCAPE values are forecast to be AOA 1500 j/kg over the risk areas, with a more centralized pockets close to 2000 j/kg closer to the enhanced risk area, and toward the center of the slight risk area.  SBCAPE values may approach 2000 j/kg, with pockets of 2500 j/kg embedded, based on current forecast soundings.  The acronyms may be found by accessing the abbreviations page at the top of my page.  Just click on abbreviations.

Given the CAPE values, and with lifted indices forecast to be at around -4 to -6 over the risk areas, large damaging hail is possible as mentioned in the SPC outlook.  Based on this, and a combination of other severe indices in the forecast soundings, the onset for the most severe probabilities appears to be approximately 3:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m. CST, then extending eastward and NEWD by evening, with the greatest potential occurring near 6:00 – 7:00 p.m. CST.  Based on the forecast indices, which have been fairly consistent in both model solutions, the best severe weather probs should lie within the outlined area (first map) and best tornado probs in the outlined area (second map). This activity however, could extend into the NE extension of the slight risk area, further into IL. Again, this is using a blend of both model solutions.  Based on a combination of some severe weather indices, and tornado parameter indices, I cannot rule out that some isolated tornadoes may be strong and long tracked, however based on what current information I have, I am not looking for an outbreak. 

F5 DATA MODEL BLEND BEST SEVERE PROBABILITY
f5 nam severe.3-4pmcst

F5 DATA MODEL BLEND BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 3:00-4:00 P.M. CST
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F5 DATA MODEL BLEND BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 7:00 P.M. CSTf5.tor.7pm

Residents within the SPC risk areas should closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements today, into late afternoon

IF a Tornado Warning is issued for your area…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

ALL of the following graphics are linked to their respective sites, as the graphics do not update automatically.  Please click on them for up to date information.

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
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SPC RISK CATEGORIES
Outlook-category-descriptions

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP DISPLAY
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NWS RIDGE RADAR ACCESS
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 11:00 A.M. EST…MAR. 15, 2016

  1. dellamom says:

    I hope all is improving today with your son, and will keep y’all in my prayers. I was at the hospital with my husband from 9:00 to 6:00 yesterday. He had his Achilles tendon a d part of his cheekbone replaced and they ended up having to do a side incision to check out something else. Three month minimum recovery, but the pain before surgery was intense. I will be following from home this week and am glad he cam through so well thus far. As for the forecasting, you are kind enough to leave us tools with which to at least get an idea of what’s coming, and I appreciate that.

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