SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE STRONG TORNADO ACTIVITY…REQUEST WIDEST DISSEMINATION…ISSUED 2:55 P.M. EDT…MAR. 13, 2016

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF AR AND EXTREME NORTHWEST MS...

There is a SLIGHT risk OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY…

There is a MARGINAL risk OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY…

…SUMMARY… SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL…AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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SPC DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1630_tornProbability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

SPC DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY
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SPC DAY 1 HAIL PROBABILITY
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Based on my analysis of the SPC outlook, and current forecast sounding data using F5 DATA Severe Weather software, with solutions from the NAM-WRF and RAP modeling, the greatest threat of severe thunderstorms, with the strongest severe probabilities, should lie within the enhanced and slight risk areas.  Based on a blend of the RAP and NAM-WRF models, after some close study and deliberation, I cannot rule out the severe extent, and possible tornado extent, a little further west into OK. in the marginal risk area.  Severe activity could initiate in that area AOA 3:00-4:00 p.m. CST.  SPC suggests the main area within the slight and enhanced areas should begin to see severe threats this afternoon (CST), and modeling suggests a window of 6:00 p.m.-9:00 p.m. CST.

Based on forecast sounding indices, and in agreement with the SPC outlook maps, damaging hail and and some tornadoes appears to be the main threat this afternoon into evening.  SBCAPE values of 1,000-1,500 j/kg, Lifted Indices of -4 to -8, and ample moisture does suggest large, damaging hail possible within the hatched area of the SPC map. albeit I am not totally ruling out the threat in the 15% area.

Various tornado indices indicates the best probability for tornadic activity, to lie within the outlined area in the F5 DATA map, per the NAM-WRF.  The NAM-WRF solution resembles the SPC outlines much more closely than the RAP model.  Based on STP values, EHI values, etc., some tornadoes within this outline may be strong and long tracked, and within the time window mentioned previously in this forecast.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
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Residents within the SPC risk areas should closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements today, into late afternoon

IF a Tornado Warning is issued for your area…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

ALL of the following graphics are linked to their respective sites, as the graphics do not update automatically.  Please click on them for up to date information.

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
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SPC RISK CATEGORIES
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP DISPLAY
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE STRONG TORNADO ACTIVITY…REQUEST WIDEST DISSEMINATION…ISSUED 2:55 P.M. EDT…MAR. 13, 2016

  1. Doug McRae says:

    Thanks for the kind thought dellamom. We remain high and dry, at least inside the house. There was a personal weather station near Varnado, LA (Bogalusa, LA area) that reported 17 inches of rain in a 24 hour period from Thursday night to Friday afternoon. Record flood crests were recorded on all of the rivers here in St. Tammany Parish. Fortunately, none of the homes in my family or any of my friends homes were flooded. I’ve lived on the North Shore of Lake Ponchatrain since 1973, and have never seen flooding like this in such a wide spread area of the state.

  2. originallt says:

    Prayers to you and your State, dellamom.

    • Monty says:

      Hope all is well Dellamom. I’m sure you heard the 10 is closed at your and our state line. They kept it open as long as they couldn’t but the Sabine river finally won over.

  3. dellamom says:

    Thanks Storm. Prayers to all in the path. I see Northern Louisiana is in the noted area again. This kind of reminds me of 2005 when Louisiana had Katrina in the East and Rita in the West during a one-month period. This will be the third system in just a couple of weeks that has affected or may affect Louisiana to the point of evacuations and flooded out communities. The ground across the State of Louisiana is saturated and the many waterways that make this a wonderful place to live have now showed us their deadly side. Areas north of Lake Pontchartrain that have NEVER flooded have flooded this time, and some rivers are still cresting. One of my coworkers was reported to have been airlifted out with her disabled sister. I have never known anyone personally who was airlifted … rescued from a roof by boat, yes; airlifted, no. DMac I hope you are okay because I know your part of the Parish was hit hard, and damages depend solely on how close to one of the several rivers you are. We still have multiple roadways closed, and Interstate 12 was down to one lane at one point. I believe the Pearl River area, which straddles Southeastern Louisiana and Southwestern Mississippi, has yet to crest and they are expecting more damage. Storm, you will never truly know how many people your site may have saved during this stretch. God bless you, sir.

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