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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF AR AND EXTREME NORTHWEST MS...
There is a SLIGHT risk OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY…
There is a MARGINAL risk OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY…
…SUMMARY… SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL…AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.
|Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Based on my analysis of the SPC outlook, and current forecast sounding data using F5 DATA Severe Weather software, with solutions from the NAM-WRF and RAP modeling, the greatest threat of severe thunderstorms, with the strongest severe probabilities, should lie within the enhanced and slight risk areas. Based on a blend of the RAP and NAM-WRF models, after some close study and deliberation, I cannot rule out the severe extent, and possible tornado extent, a little further west into OK. in the marginal risk area. Severe activity could initiate in that area AOA 3:00-4:00 p.m. CST. SPC suggests the main area within the slight and enhanced areas should begin to see severe threats this afternoon (CST), and modeling suggests a window of 6:00 p.m.-9:00 p.m. CST.
Based on forecast sounding indices, and in agreement with the SPC outlook maps, damaging hail and and some tornadoes appears to be the main threat this afternoon into evening. SBCAPE values of 1,000-1,500 j/kg, Lifted Indices of -4 to -8, and ample moisture does suggest large, damaging hail possible within the hatched area of the SPC map. albeit I am not totally ruling out the threat in the 15% area.
Various tornado indices indicates the best probability for tornadic activity, to lie within the outlined area in the F5 DATA map, per the NAM-WRF. The NAM-WRF solution resembles the SPC outlines much more closely than the RAP model. Based on STP values, EHI values, etc., some tornadoes within this outline may be strong and long tracked, and within the time window mentioned previously in this forecast.
Residents within the SPC risk areas should closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements today, into late afternoon
IF a Tornado Warning is issued for your area…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
ALL of the following graphics are linked to their respective sites, as the graphics do not update automatically. Please click on them for up to date information.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS