SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:30 A.M. EST…MAR. 09, 2016

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS E TX AND MUCH OF LA…

There is a MARGINAL risk FROM SRN AND E CNTRL TX INTO THE LWR MS VLY…

…SUMMARY… DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF LOUISIANA AND POSSIBLY FAR WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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Based on information contained in the SPC outlook, you’ll see a lot of fancy abbreviations and numbers…all technical for there will be sufficient spin/twisting in the atmosphere for rotating supercells and the ingredients for some tornadoes.

Based on my analysis of the outlook, and the graphics data from the current forecast soundings of the current RAP and NAM-WRF models, I am extending the SLIGHT risk area somewhat northward and eastward, based on forecast indices.  This will most likely, or could occur around 6:00-7:00 p.m. CST. The greatest probability for severe weather, based on a blend of the model solutions, should be within the outlined area in the F5 DATA map for that time period, and within the SPC outline prior to that.

F5 DATA BEST SEVERE PROBABILITY
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Based on the same blend, the greatest probability for tornado activity, based on forecast sounding indices, should lie within the following outlined area.

F5 DATA BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
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Residents within the SPC risk areas should closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements today, into late afternoon

IF a Tornado Warning is issued for your area…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

ALL of the following graphics are linked to their respective sites, as the graphics do not update automatically.  Please click on them for up to date information.

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
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SPC CATEGORY RISKS
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP DISPLAY
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:30 A.M. EST…MAR. 09, 2016

  1. dellamom says:

    Storm, my office has had me checking the site thanks to your tools. Even when off-site you aid us. EMacs I hope you aren’t in the part of town where rescues and evacuations are underway. My home and office are both in safe areas thus far. Be safe in today’s assault on already saturated and overflowing rivers.

  2. Monty says:

    Have gotten between 5 and 6 inches so far NW of KIAH. More falling and should be a long night. Ha come swim in Lake Houston. It’s just outside my back door! Lol. Hope all is well Storm….Dellamom and LT and all. Now I know what you guys go through down here. Told friends in DEN we would probably get 4 to 8 inches. They said “you mean it snows in Houston? ” No guys…I mean rain. Lol. Stay safe all in the path of this monster.

  3. dellamom says:

    Goodness, Storm, it looks like Texas and the Northwestern half of Louisiana are getting what the Southeastern half of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Northern Florida got last time! Stay safe Monte. Prayers to all in the path. The rest of Louisiana is expecting flooding, but not tornadoes, within the next day or two.

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