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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS E TX AND MUCH OF LA…
There is a MARGINAL risk FROM SRN AND E CNTRL TX INTO THE LWR MS VLY…
…SUMMARY… DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF LOUISIANA AND POSSIBLY FAR WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.
Based on information contained in the SPC outlook, you’ll see a lot of fancy abbreviations and numbers…all technical for there will be sufficient spin/twisting in the atmosphere for rotating supercells and the ingredients for some tornadoes.
Based on my analysis of the outlook, and the graphics data from the current forecast soundings of the current RAP and NAM-WRF models, I am extending the SLIGHT risk area somewhat northward and eastward, based on forecast indices. This will most likely, or could occur around 6:00-7:00 p.m. CST. The greatest probability for severe weather, based on a blend of the model solutions, should be within the outlined area in the F5 DATA map for that time period, and within the SPC outline prior to that.
Based on the same blend, the greatest probability for tornado activity, based on forecast sounding indices, should lie within the following outlined area.
Residents within the SPC risk areas should closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements today, into late afternoon
IF a Tornado Warning is issued for your area…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
ALL of the following graphics are linked to their respective sites, as the graphics do not update automatically. Please click on them for up to date information.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS