SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ENHANCED THREAT OVER TEXAS…ISSUED 10:55 A.M. EST…MAR. 08, 2016

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Good day everyone!

Late start today…I apologize for the delay.

Severe weather is currently ongoing over portions of Texas.

The SPC has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM S CNTRL TX ENE TO THE UPR TX GULF CST…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM DEEP S TX N AND NNE INTO CNTRL OK AND THE ARKLATEX…

…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE S CNTRL U.S….

…SUMMARY… SEVERAL EPISODES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER…INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND…WILL EXIST OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAIN.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AND TORNADO PROBABILITY
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day1probotlk_1300_tornProbability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Analysis of the SPC outlook indicates activity could die down early this afternoon, however an upper low over Mexico is progged to move up into TX late this afternoon, and could trigger another round of severe weather.

Analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather software, using the RAP model solution, indicates the bulk/majority of severe threats to lie within the following outline in the F5 DATA map.  I did look at the NAM-WRF, however that solution of forecast sounding indices kept the most severe weather indices well NW of the SPC ENHANCED outline.  I wouldn’t be surprised however, to see watches for portions of OK., even though the modeling does not indicate this at the moment.

F5 DATA RAP MODEL BEST SEVERE
f5 severe

The RAP model solution indicated, the areas having the best probability of tornadoes, lies within the following outlined area.  Index values of the forecast soundings indicate some tornadoes that occur, may be long tracked, strong tornadoes, especially over the SPC hatched area, and slightly further east toward the LA border, within the 5% designation.

F5 DATA RAP MODEL BEST TORNADO
f5.rap.10-12.tor

Residents within the SPC risk areas should closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements today, into late afternoon

IF a Tornado Warning is issued for your area…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

ALL of the following graphics are linked to their respective sites, as the graphics do not update automatically.  Please click on them for up to date information.

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
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SPC CATEGORY RISKS
Outlook-category-descriptions

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP DISPLAY
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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