SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 11:20 A.M. EST…MAR. 07, 2016

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Good day everyone!

A somewhat of a complex pattern regarding severe weather today

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of the SRN PLNS

There is a MARGINAL risk from the SRN PLNS INTO THE CNTRL PLNS…

There is another MARGINAL risk ALONG THE SRN CA CST…

…SUMMARY…
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS AND RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

day1probotlk_1300_torn

Based on analysis of the SPC outlook text, it appears all severe threats will be in play, beginning late this afternoon, until after midnight CST.  12Z soundings from around the risk area were inconclusive, showing a somewhat stable environment, with an inversion from 850 mb to near the 700 mb level.

Based on analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather software forecast sounding maps, there are some notable differences between the RAP and NAM-WRF model solutions as to the exact extent as far as geographical concerns, however, the areas outlined further to the north and east should not be completely ruled out, based on various severe weather indices.  The RAP model at the time of analysis, only went out to 7:00 p.m. CST, and I ran the NAM-WRF solution out to midnight, from the 12Z run.

The following outlined maps are where the model solutions have projected where the best probability for the bulk of severe weather to occur, with the RAP out to 7:00 p.m. CST.  The RAP tornado probability suggests the most likely time for tornado activity to occur close to 7:00 p.m. CST, however in combination with the NAM-WRF, this may occur somewhat earlier.

F5 DATA RAP MODEL SEVERE PROBABILITY 4:00 P.M. CST
f5.rap.4pmcst

F5 DATA RAP MODEL SEVERE PROBABILITY 7:00 P.M. CST
f5.rap.7pmcst

RAP MODEL BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY MAP
f5.rap.7.tor

The next few maps are the solution put out by the NAM-WRF as far as best severe probs, and tornado probs:

NAM-WRF BEST SEVERE PROB 6:00 P.M. CST
f5 nam severe.6pm

NAM-WRF BEST SEVERE PROB 9:00 P.M. CST
f5 nam severe.9pm

NAM-WRF 12 MIDNIGHT BEST SEVERE PROB
f5 nam severe.12mid

NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROB 6:00 P.M. CST-12:00 MIDNIGHT CST
f5 namtorday.6pm

f5 namtorday.9pm

f5 namtor12mid

Residents within the SPC risk areas should closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements this afternoon into late evening.

IF a Tornado Warning is issued for your area…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

I will have more on the day 2 outlook tomorrow, however the SPC has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the current day 2 outlook:

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_0700

ALL of the following graphics are linked to their respective sites, as the graphics do not update automatically.  Please click on them for up to date information.

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP DISPLAY
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 11:20 A.M. EST…MAR. 07, 2016

  1. dellamom says:

    Thanks, Storm, I just checked the Day 3 outlook and it shows my nieces in Lafayette to be in the Slight Risk area, I will let them know and, thanks to you, they will be prepared. God bless all in the path of these weather concerns.

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