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Good day everyone!
A somewhat of a complex pattern regarding severe weather today
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of the SRN PLNS
There is a MARGINAL risk from the SRN PLNS INTO THE CNTRL PLNS…
There is another MARGINAL risk ALONG THE SRN CA CST…
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS AND RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
Based on analysis of the SPC outlook text, it appears all severe threats will be in play, beginning late this afternoon, until after midnight CST. 12Z soundings from around the risk area were inconclusive, showing a somewhat stable environment, with an inversion from 850 mb to near the 700 mb level.
Based on analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather software forecast sounding maps, there are some notable differences between the RAP and NAM-WRF model solutions as to the exact extent as far as geographical concerns, however, the areas outlined further to the north and east should not be completely ruled out, based on various severe weather indices. The RAP model at the time of analysis, only went out to 7:00 p.m. CST, and I ran the NAM-WRF solution out to midnight, from the 12Z run.
The following outlined maps are where the model solutions have projected where the best probability for the bulk of severe weather to occur, with the RAP out to 7:00 p.m. CST. The RAP tornado probability suggests the most likely time for tornado activity to occur close to 7:00 p.m. CST, however in combination with the NAM-WRF, this may occur somewhat earlier.
The next few maps are the solution put out by the NAM-WRF as far as best severe probs, and tornado probs:
Residents within the SPC risk areas should closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements this afternoon into late evening.
IF a Tornado Warning is issued for your area…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
I will have more on the day 2 outlook tomorrow, however the SPC has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the current day 2 outlook:
ALL of the following graphics are linked to their respective sites, as the graphics do not update automatically. Please click on them for up to date information.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS