For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site. The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
Good evening everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. indicates the threat of Severe Weather over the course of the next 3 days. These outlooks will in all probability change in coverage by tomorrow, as conditions change in the atmosphere over the next 12-18 hours.
Based on the current outlook text, the main threat at the moment for Monday appears to be hail. However in the overnight period of very early Tues., an increase for a probability of an isolated tornado may not be ruled out at the moment, in any of the strongest supercells. Based on the outlook, the dryline will be a factor tomorrow, and also into Tuesday. Based on the 18Z run of the NAM-WRF, analysis of the data from F5 DATA Severe Weather software pretty much agrees with SPC in the main threat being hail, as the various tornado indices are pretty much lacking at the moment. Sufficient lift will be in place to allow for hail development, and isolated severe weather based on current projected Lifted Indices of -1 to -6, and SWEAT values ranging 350-450.
I won’t go any further into forecast indices and parameters for this outlook, or the remaining outlooks, as having already stated, these values are going to change overnight, and I should have more accurate information tomorrow a.m., should models update on time, for the day 1 outlook. Should personal business allow, I intend to have an update in the a.m., hopefully before noon.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS