SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 5:40 P.M. EST…MAR. 06, 2016

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Good evening everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. indicates the threat of Severe Weather over the course of the next 3 days.  These outlooks will in all probability change in coverage by tomorrow, as conditions change in the atmosphere over the next 12-18 hours.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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Based on the current outlook text, the main threat at the moment for Monday appears to be hail. However in the overnight period of very early Tues., an increase for a probability of an isolated tornado may not be ruled out at the moment, in any of the strongest supercells.  Based on the outlook, the dryline will be a factor tomorrow, and also into Tuesday.  Based on the 18Z run of the NAM-WRF, analysis of the data from F5 DATA Severe Weather software pretty much agrees with SPC in the main threat being hail, as the various tornado indices are pretty much lacking at the moment.  Sufficient lift will be in place to allow for hail development, and isolated severe weather based on current projected Lifted Indices of -1 to -6, and SWEAT values ranging 350-450.

I won’t go any further into forecast indices and parameters for this outlook, or the remaining outlooks, as having already stated, these values are going to change overnight, and I should have more accurate information tomorrow a.m., should models update on time, for the day 1 outlook.  Should personal business allow, I intend to have an update in the a.m., hopefully before noon.

SPC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
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SPC DAY 4 SEVERE PROBABILITY OUTLOOK
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Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 5:40 P.M. EST…MAR. 06, 2016

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Yeah…seems like SPC and IAH mets keep updating this thing every 30 minutes. If things pan out we could get strong to severe storms with the possibility of tornadoes…not to mention…5+ inches of throughout the course of the week.

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