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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND TN AND OH VALLEYS…
There is a MARGINAL risk FOR THE LWR MS…TN..AND OH VALLEYS AND SOUTHEAST STATES…
…SUMMARY… SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO RIVER…AND BY EVENING FROM MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA. MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
Based on my analysis of the SPC outlook text, and forecast sounding indices from the F5 DATA Severe Weather software, RAP model solution, the main severe threat for today should be locally damaging thunderstorm gusts with any severe cells. Based on current and forecast thermodynamic and kinematic forecast soundings, it appears at the moment, the hail and tornado threat are fairly low. The tornado threat issued by SPC is at only 2 percent. It is not clear based on the current model solution from the current RAP model run, as to why the SPC has the tornado prob extended further north and east.
Based on the model analysis at the time of this synopsis, indications are that the bulk of any severe threat should be confined within the slight risk area, with the model solution suggesting the greatest probs, based on the Lifted Index, Craven Brooks Index, the SWEAT Index, and SBCAPE values, lie within the white outline on the F5 DATA map, with a time period form approximately 2:00 p.m – 7:00 p.m. CST.
Residents within the SPC risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements today
The following graphics are linked to their respective sites. You MUST click on them for CURRENT information
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS