SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:20 A.M. EST…MAR. 01, 2016

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND TN AND OH VALLEYS…

There is a MARGINAL risk FOR THE LWR MS…TN..AND OH VALLEYS AND SOUTHEAST STATES…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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…SUMMARY… SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO RIVER…AND BY EVENING FROM MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA. MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

Based on my analysis of the SPC outlook text, and forecast sounding indices from the F5 DATA Severe Weather software, RAP model solution, the main severe threat for today should be locally damaging thunderstorm gusts with any severe cells.  Based on current and forecast thermodynamic and kinematic forecast soundings, it appears at the moment, the hail and tornado threat are fairly low.  The tornado threat issued by SPC is at only 2 percent.  It is not clear based on the current model solution from the current RAP model run, as to why the SPC has the tornado prob extended further north and east.

Based on the model analysis at the time of this synopsis, indications are that the bulk of any severe threat should be confined within the slight risk area, with the model solution suggesting the greatest probs, based on the Lifted Index, Craven Brooks Index, the SWEAT Index, and SBCAPE values, lie within the white outline on the F5 DATA map, with a time period form approximately 2:00 p.m – 7:00 p.m. CST.

F5 DATA RAP MODEL BEST SEVERE PROBABILITY
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Residents within the SPC risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements today

SPC OUTLOOK CATEGORY DESCRIPTIONS
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The following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  You MUST click on them for CURRENT information

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCHES
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST)
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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:20 A.M. EST…MAR. 01, 2016

  1. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, looks like TX and the rest of the South could get quite stormy by Tuesday , Wed. next week.

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