SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:50 A.M. EST…FEB. 29, 2016

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over portions of OK…

There is a MARGINAL risk elsewhere from ERN TX PANHANDLE TO WRN OZARKS AND EXTREME SRN KS TO TX/OK RED RIVER REGION…

…SUMMARY… STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY THE OZARKS VICINITY TONIGHT.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

Based on analysis of the SPC outlook text, combined with analysis of forecast sounding data using the NAM-WRF model, the most likely severe threat should be hail and damaging wind gusts.  The current synopsis from SPC is rather complicated, in that the thermodynamic and kinematic parameters tend to support a mix of more linear/bow echo type storms, with a probable intermittent mix of MCS/Supercell type storms.

Albeit the SPC narrative indicates that a diabatically cooled, stable layer near the surface will work against tornado potential, the 12Z run of the NAM-WRF model, using F5 DATA Severe Weather software, indicates forecast soundings regarding tornado development, are prevalent.  While I agree with the current SPC synopsis, unless the model is producing erroneous solutions, I cannot comfortable rule out a possible isolated tornado incident, and have outlined in the following F5 maps where the most likely areas COULD experience isolated tornado activity, should it occur.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF TORNADO PROB SOLUTION MAPS

12:00 MIDNIGHT CST
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3:00 A.M. CSTf5 namtor3am

As far as the other severe weather threats, they should be limited to the slight and marginal risk areas.  The SPC report, along with the NAM-WRF model solution suggests the main focus of energy and onset of severe weather will be greatest tonight and during the overnight hours.  Based on the NAM-WRF output, it may initiate as early as 6:00 p.m. CST, however the main impact appears to be between 9:00 p.m. – 3:00 a.m. CST.  Based on the NAM-WRF solution (the RAP model was not updated far enough in the period this morning to utilize forecast soundings), as a precaution, I have extended the marginal area further SE into Texas.  Again, SPC does not show this, and I trust their forecast, however I cannot ignore the forecast sounding data, if it is correct.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF SEVERE PROB 6:00 P.M. CST
f5.2-29.marginal

Residents within the SPC risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements today

SPC OUTLOOK CATEGORY DESCRIPTIONS
Outlook-category-descriptions

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  You MUST click on them for CURRENT information

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCHES
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST)
US

The SPC has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the current day 2 convective outlook, for TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS…

There is a MARGINAL risk SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA…SOUTHWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY…

…SUMMARY… SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT…IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY…EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST ACTIVITY…IN ADDITION TO AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.

I will try and analyze the situation tomorrow, and post an updated synopsis.  Not sure exactly what time, as I have some personal business to attend to tomorrow.

There is a better chance at isolated tornado activity with the risk area, according to the SPC day 2 outlook.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_0700

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:50 A.M. EST…FEB. 29, 2016

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Yeah…they’re saying a 20% chance of storms around IAH. Maybe one or two hitting severe criteria. Should be around 80 today. Hope all is well Dellamom!

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. What a difference a day makes! Yesterday I checked the graphic you sent us last week, and it showed only greens; a hint at the Pacific Northwest for Day 1 and only in a relatively small area in the Tex/Ark/La/Miss area following that. I am so glad you are here for us and that you leave us tools to help us when you cannot be here. God bless all in the path of this weather.

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