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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over portions of OK…
There is a MARGINAL risk elsewhere from ERN TX PANHANDLE TO WRN OZARKS AND EXTREME SRN KS TO TX/OK RED RIVER REGION…
…SUMMARY… STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY THE OZARKS VICINITY TONIGHT.
Based on analysis of the SPC outlook text, combined with analysis of forecast sounding data using the NAM-WRF model, the most likely severe threat should be hail and damaging wind gusts. The current synopsis from SPC is rather complicated, in that the thermodynamic and kinematic parameters tend to support a mix of more linear/bow echo type storms, with a probable intermittent mix of MCS/Supercell type storms.
Albeit the SPC narrative indicates that a diabatically cooled, stable layer near the surface will work against tornado potential, the 12Z run of the NAM-WRF model, using F5 DATA Severe Weather software, indicates forecast soundings regarding tornado development, are prevalent. While I agree with the current SPC synopsis, unless the model is producing erroneous solutions, I cannot comfortable rule out a possible isolated tornado incident, and have outlined in the following F5 maps where the most likely areas COULD experience isolated tornado activity, should it occur.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF TORNADO PROB SOLUTION MAPS
As far as the other severe weather threats, they should be limited to the slight and marginal risk areas. The SPC report, along with the NAM-WRF model solution suggests the main focus of energy and onset of severe weather will be greatest tonight and during the overnight hours. Based on the NAM-WRF output, it may initiate as early as 6:00 p.m. CST, however the main impact appears to be between 9:00 p.m. – 3:00 a.m. CST. Based on the NAM-WRF solution (the RAP model was not updated far enough in the period this morning to utilize forecast soundings), as a precaution, I have extended the marginal area further SE into Texas. Again, SPC does not show this, and I trust their forecast, however I cannot ignore the forecast sounding data, if it is correct.
Residents within the SPC risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements today
The following graphics are linked to their respective sites. You MUST click on them for CURRENT information
The SPC has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the current day 2 convective outlook, for TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS…
There is a MARGINAL risk SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA…SOUTHWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY…
…SUMMARY… SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT…IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY…EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST ACTIVITY…IN ADDITION TO AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.
I will try and analyze the situation tomorrow, and post an updated synopsis. Not sure exactly what time, as I have some personal business to attend to tomorrow.
There is a better chance at isolated tornado activity with the risk area, according to the SPC day 2 outlook.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS