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Good day everyone!
Sorry for the delay…the F5 DATA site was undergoing maintenance this morning, so model output was late in updating.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SE LA ACROSS SRN MS…SRN AL…THE FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SW GA…
An ENHANCED risk extends from WRN GA TO CENTRAL LA AND MS/AL/WRN GA…
A SLIGHT risk is designated FROM EXTREME SE TX TO NRN MS/AL…MUCH OF GA…AND INTO N FL…
A MARGINAL risk area surrounds the slight risk area FROM SE TX TO SRN TN TO THE GA/SC BORDER AND NE FL…
…SUMMARY… SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES…DAMAGING WINDS…AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
Analysis of the SPC outlook text indicates conditions will deteriorate quickly this late afternoon and evening, as a upper low rapidly deepens throughout the day over the south central states, and an associated mid level low IVO the ARKLATEX region rapidly deepens after sunset. The main threats today appear to be either a POSSIBLE tornado outbreak within the hatched area, or a fairly certain probability of some strong / long track tornadoes. Based on analysis of the SPC tornado probability map, the RAP model output this morning closely resembles the SPC outline. Based on my analysis of forecast soundings provide by F5 DATA Severe Weather software, utilizing the RAP model recent run (14Z), forecast sounding indices and parameters regarding tornado development, indicate the areas which have the highest probability of experiencing strong / long track tornadoes, and tornado activity in general, lie within the following outlines on the F5 DATA maps. The first indicates where the RAP model solution suggests this activity may occur from approximately 2:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. CST, and the second map indicating the area after 5:00 p.m. CST from approximately 6:00 p.m. – 8:00 p.m. CST.
At the moment it is unknown as to whether or not the SPC will be issuing any PDS Tornado Watches as this event evolves, however residents within the MODERATE and ENHANCED risk areas should be aware, this has the potential to become a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation).
Residents in the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and monitor local NWS and news channels for any statements regarding today’s risk. The following graphics are linked to their respective sites for up to date information. The graphics do not update automatically, so you must mouse over and click on them to retrieve the information.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS