MODERATE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED…12:00 P.M. EST…FEB. 23, 2016…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

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Good day everyone!

Sorry for the delay…the F5 DATA site was undergoing maintenance this morning, so model output was late in updating.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SE LA ACROSS SRN MS…SRN AL…THE FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SW GA…

An ENHANCED risk extends from WRN GA TO CENTRAL LA AND MS/AL/WRN GA…

A SLIGHT risk is designated FROM EXTREME SE TX TO NRN MS/AL…MUCH OF GA…AND INTO N FL…

A MARGINAL risk area surrounds the slight risk area FROM SE TX TO SRN TN TO THE GA/SC BORDER AND NE FL…

…SUMMARY… SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES…DAMAGING WINDS…AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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SPC TORNADO PROBABILITY
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

SPC HAIL PROBABILITY
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SPC DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY
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Analysis of the SPC outlook text indicates conditions will deteriorate quickly this late afternoon and evening, as a upper low rapidly deepens throughout the day over the south central states, and an associated mid level low IVO the ARKLATEX region rapidly deepens after sunset.  The main threats today appear to be either a POSSIBLE tornado outbreak within the hatched area, or a fairly certain probability of some strong / long track tornadoes.  Based on analysis of the SPC tornado probability map, the RAP model output this morning closely resembles the SPC outline.  Based on my analysis of forecast soundings provide by F5 DATA Severe Weather software, utilizing the RAP model recent run (14Z), forecast sounding indices and parameters regarding tornado development, indicate the areas which have the highest probability of experiencing strong / long track tornadoes, and tornado activity in general, lie within the following outlines on the F5 DATA maps.  The first indicates where the RAP model solution suggests this activity may occur from approximately 2:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. CST, and the second map indicating the area after 5:00 p.m. CST from approximately 6:00 p.m. – 8:00 p.m. CST.

F5 DATA RAP MODEL TORNADO PROBABILITY
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At the moment it is unknown as to whether or not the SPC will be issuing any PDS Tornado Watches as this event evolves, however residents within the MODERATE and ENHANCED risk areas should be aware, this has the potential to become a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation).

Residents in the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and monitor local NWS and news channels for any statements regarding today’s risk.  The following graphics are linked to their respective sites for up to date information.  The graphics do not update automatically, so you must mouse over and click on them to retrieve the information.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSION DISPLAY
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SPC PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (CLICK FOR TEXT)
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
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NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST)
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SPC OUTLOOK CATEGORY DESCRIPTIONS
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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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13 Responses to MODERATE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED…12:00 P.M. EST…FEB. 23, 2016…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Tis the season. Take care Dellamom and all. We had an EF1 near Galveston but were mainly spared. Nothing like you guys are getting.

  2. Fella mom says:

    A tornado touched down around Convent, La., and the cell is moving northwest. Now over Lske Maurepas at 50 mph. Follow on wwltv.com. Interesting Doppler images showing possible debris fields.

  3. dellamom says:

    Log onto wwltv.com/weather if you want to see a video of the triple waterspout on Lake Pontchartrain.

  4. dellamom says:

    Tornado Warning earlier for Mandeville and points eastward and northward. I am in Madisonville to the west of Mandeville, but my home is in Mandeville. Intense but short-lived rain around noon. Ditches and roads flooded where the roadways usually don’t flood, but started going down after rain stopped. Currently tornado Warnings for Lafayette, LA and south of Baton Rouge between Gonzales and Thibodaux. Heavy rain now over Madisonville/Mandeville/points east. Reports of waterspouts coming ashore in Mandeville from Lake Pontchartrain, a couple possible tornadoes west and south. And this isn’t even the evening bad weather they are predicting. I’m with you, grannyMS. I cant wait for today to be over and for everyone to be safe.

  5. grannyMS says:

    I am in South MS and I can’t wait for this day/night to be OVER 😦

  6. dellamom says:

    DMac, say safe. I am at the office in Madisonville … For the “blizzard,” we worked most of the day, and I was heading home to La. Hwy. 59 in Mandeville via I-12 just ahead of the road sanding truck. Prayers to all our site “family” from Louisiana to Florida. Thank you, Storm.

  7. Mike Doll says:

    Apparently Jim Cantorie is in the Mobile area. So we shall keep
    Our head on a swivel and war to the radio today. Thanks Storm

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