SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 11:30 A.M. EST…FEB. 22, 2016…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

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Good day everyone!

I guess I was correct in my assumption of severe weather for portions of the deep south and SE U.S. during the Tue/Wed time frame.  I get lucky sometimes.  First though, we need to address the Day 1 outlook.

IMPORTANT NOTE:  The SPC, at 12:30 p.m. EST, upgraded the risk for Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2016 to a MODERATE risk:

SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK UPDATE…12:30 P.M. FEB. 22, 2016
day2otlk_1730

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms across PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX…

There is a MARGINAL risk across parts of WRN/CENTRAL/SRN TX…

…SUMMARY… NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS…SOME WITH LARGE HAIL…ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING…AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY…NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THE DAY.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS
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day1probotlk_1300_hail

day1probotlk_1300_torn

Based on analysis of various forecast sounding indices and parameters, the most prominent severe threat should be damaging thunderstorm gusts, and hail.  Based on the premise of thunderstorm activity becoming more surface based during the evening, some isolated tornado activity cannot be ruled out.  Based on my analysis of various forecast sounding indices from F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, NAM-WRF output related to tornado development, I have extended the tornado threat outline slightly eastward, from what SPC has in the outlook map.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5 namtorday1

Residents in the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and monitor local NWS and news channels for any statements regarding today’s risk.  The following graphics are linked to their respective sites for up to date information.  The graphics do not update automatically, so you must mouse over and click on them to retrieve the information.

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSION DISPLAY
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
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NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST)
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The SPC has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms across portions of SOUTHERN LA/MS/AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE…

There is a SLIGHT risk across the UPPER TX COAST TO WESTERN GA AND THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE…

There is a MARGINAL risk FROM EASTERN TX TO PARTS OF EASTERN GA AND NORTHERN FL…

...SUMMARY… SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA…MISSISSIPPI…ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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SPC OUTLOOK CATEGORY DESCRIPTIONS
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Based on my analysis of the SPC day 2 outlook information, surface and upper air maps, and the most current forecast sounding information from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, using the current NAM-WRF solution, indices reflect pretty much what is contained in the current outlook.  There is a very good probability of a severe hail event, as well as numerous tornadoes within the enhanced risk area, although based on current forecast indices, this may not be ruled out over a portion of the slight risk area.  Information from a couple of select indices such as the forecast L.I. (Lifted Index) and the EHI (Energy Helicity Index) along with the STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) back up the probabilities.  The forecast LI values are -2 to -4 over a majority of the risk area, with isolated areas in the extreme southern portion of the risk areas showing values of -6 to -8.

The STP values are ranging anywhere from 1 to 14 in increments from the northern portion of the area to the southern portions, and EHI values on the order of 1 to 4.  STP’s of greater than 1, indicate a much greater increased probability of experiencing the potential of significant tornadoes (EF2-EF5), and EHI values of greater than 3 indicate a probability of strong, long tracked tornadoes could be experienced.  However, as of current, this information, along with the maps that follow, should be considered PRELIMINARY as the forecast sounding information will undoubtedly change during the overnight hours, which will reflect a change in forecast soundings, and area coverage.  The worst of the severe threat seems to be after early afternoon at the moment, near the beginning of early evening (6:00 p.m. CST?). Initiation however, based on the SPC outlook, could begin early afternoon, sometime after 12:00 noon CST.  The outlines reflect where the greatest probability of a significant tornado event could occur.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF SOLUTION FOR 3:00 P.M. CST FEB. 23, 2016
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F5 DATA NAM-WRF SOLUTION FOR 6:00 P.M. CST FEB. 23, 2016
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I am going to try and update in the morning, once the models update with enough information, in which I will be able to analyze the RAP model solution as well.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

 

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 11:30 A.M. EST…FEB. 22, 2016…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

  1. DMac says:

    Thanks Storm! All of SE Louisiana in the moderate zone this morning on the SPC Day 1. Almost all public/private schools and colleges in the SE Louisiana parishes (counties to the rest of you in the U.S.) announced they are closed for the day this morning. I can’t remember another closing like this (except for hurricanes/tropical storms) since the “blizzard” we had in December 2008. My wife, who works at a private High School got the robo-call just before 7AM this morning. Battening down the hatches here right now… Prayers to all of us facing this powerful weather system.

  2. DMac says:

    Thanks Storm! All of SE Louisiana in the moderate zone this morning on the SPC Day 1. Almost all schools (public, private, colleges) announced they are closed today in the SE Louisiana parishes (Counties for the rest of you folks in the U.S.). My wife got the call around 7ish this morning, she works for a private H.S. I can’t remember another closing like this since the “blizzard” we got in Dec 2008, not including Hurricanes/Tropical Storms. Battening down here…

  3. Is that luck </em or skill? I suggest the latter! Thanks Storm for your keeping us abreast of the current conditions, I look forward (I think!) to the coming months for your keeping us up on what is going on in the Gulf and the Atlantic basin !

  4. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks storm watching closely here in Mobile

  5. dellamom says:

    Good Lord, Storm! DMac, grannyMS, Mike, Greg and I are all in that little white outline. I thank you for the heads-up and the graphics. It really helps to be able to look below the 2-day graphic, pick out what “Enhanced” means and proceed accordingly. I and mine thank you, sir.

    • Dellamom…SPC just revised the forecast to a MODERATE risk.

      • dellamom says:

        Thanks, Storm. I just got a chance to log back onto the site and saw that. I am just barely southwest of the edge of the moderate area, but still in the enhanced zone. Knowing that differences of several miles are not uncommon and that the enhanced zone has its own risks, I will be vigilant. I don’t know exactly where grannyMS lives from my area, but I do believe she, Mike and Greg will be in the moderate area, while the rest of us are in the enhanced. Prayers to all y’all, and thanks to Storm for giving us tools and information with which to stay safe.

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