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Good evening everyone!
Just wanted to give a quick post, to let you all know I’m still alive and monitoring things.
Albeit the SPC does not indicate any severe weather threat for the next 5 – 7days, I performed a quick analysis of a few items, such as surface winds, 850 mb winds, 500 mb winds, and the 250 mb (jet-stream) maps. I also looked at a couple of other parameters. These parameters will almost absolutely change over the next 3 days, however there dies appear that a turning in the wind field with height (directional shear), as well as an increase in wind speed with height (speed shear). Not saying it will occur, but there could be a slight possibility of strong or severe weather approximately TUE/WED time frame for portions of the deep south or SE states? This is just my guesstimate at the moment, based on analysis of what I have mentioned. I could possibly be incorrect, seeing that the SPC does not indicate anything at this moment. I will try to monitor for any change in the model solutions, and if I’m wrong, I guess it won’t be the first time. Just wanted to throw it out there.
I have been looking at some things, as far as trying to get a good handle on what we may expect for the upcoming hurricane season. As we know, we have already had 1 hurricane this year.
I did an analysis of the current Operational Sea Surface Anomaly chart, along with information from the ENSO Wrap Up site, and it now appears we are entering more of an El Nino Modoki pattern (warmer SST anomalies in the ENSO 3.4, ENOS 4 region). During hurricane season, it has been documented that a “Modoki” does not provide a negative impact on the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Based on the ENSO forecast from the ENSO Wrap Up, a steady decline in El Nino should be the case, and if accurate, we may be in NEUTRAL (cool bias) conditions just before and during the peak of the 2016 hurricane season. At the moment, looking at the Climate Prediction Center ONI information, I have 2 analog years that closely reflect values and the “trend” of this El Nino (1982-1983 and 1997-1998).
CURRENT BOM ENSO FORECAST TREND
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ONI CHART
In coming up with preliminary season totals, I had to weigh a few things in picking which analog is the better of the two. In looking at this past season totals (11-4-2), we did well as far as these totals, as in the shorter term average from the period 1981-2010 (12-6-3) and the longer term period of 1851-2010 (10-6-2), you can see we were kind of in between, which is not bad for a strong El Nino year. Base on this information, I am throwing out 1983 as an analog, given 1983 only recorded a total of 4 storms, with us just recording a total of 11 storms in a strong El Nino season.
Based on all of this current information, along with the premise of CFS model showing somewhat warmer SST Anomalies in the Atlantic, albeit just north of the MDR, using the longer term average, and number of total storms from 1998, I have come up with the following preliminary totals for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane season. I will be revising this forecast as more information is obtained through the ONI and ENSO updates. NOTE: If the colder Gulf of Guinea anomalies hold true, this will allow for the ITCZ to be pushed further north over the African Continent, which could be an indicator of more rainfall over the Sahel region.
Total Storms: 12 – 14
Total Hurricanes: 6-7
Total Intense Hurricanes: 2-3
This preliminary forecast is close to the CSU forecast by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray from December of 2015 (No…I did not copy their forecast):
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS