SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:20 A.M. EST…FEB. 15, 2016

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
money-dog-300x300

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) N0rman, OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms…ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND VICINITY…

There is a MARGINAL risk surrounding the SLIGHT risk, EWD TO PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA…

There is a MARGINAL risk ACROSS COASTAL SC…

SPC SUMMARY:

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST AND VICINITY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT…AND ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AND TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1otlk_1300

day1probotlk_1300_torn

Based on analysis of mid and upper level maps, and forecast sounding values of various parameters, as of the 1300Z SPC Outlook Maps, the synoptic situation is somewhat complex, in that some forecast parameters analyzed, are somewhat contradictory to others.  However, in the grand scheme of things, analysis of various parameters from the SPC SREF model, and data from the RAP and NAM-WRF models using F5 DATA Severe Weather software forecast soundings, soundings at the moment tend to indicate the tornado threat may extend further northward in the risk area, and is depicted in the outline of the following maps.  In all likelihood, the greatest potential for isolated tornadoes will lie within the SPC 5% outline…however I cannot ignore the current forecast soundings.

F5 DATA RAP MODEL BEST TOR PROB
f5.rap.tor

F5 DATA NAM-WRF MODEL BEST TOR PROB
f5.nam.tor


Soundings such as the K INDEX (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index_%28meteorology%29), LIFTED INDEX (L.I.) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lifted_index),  and Surface THETA-E (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equivalent_potential_temperature), combined with forecast dewpoints in the upper 50’s to low 60’s, indicate some moderate instability, while other indices are not as supportive of severe thunderstorms.  However, with the risk area(s) lying within the diffluent side of a 80-110 knot jetstreak, and SRH values of 150-300, rotating supercells cannot be ruled out.

Based on the current forecast soundings, the severe threat in the SLIGHT and MARGINAL risk areas over the Gulf Coast region, should occur from approximately 1:00 p.m. EST through 7:00 p.m. EST.

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites…please feel free to click on them to retrieve current information, as the graphics themselves do not update automatically.  What you view on this page, may be different once you click on the graphic.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION DISPLAY
validmd

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP
usa_None_anim

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local news channels for current statements and/or warnings.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Severe Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

6 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:20 A.M. EST…FEB. 15, 2016

  1. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, Well, I got about 2-2.5″ of snow on Monday, Now temps. in the 50’s with a strong S-SE wind and periods of heavy rain. All the snow is gone. Gusts of up to 45mph or so. Things will calm down later this afternoon, then some clearing. Probably will get over 2″ of rain out of this! Some local flooding possible.

  2. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, I’m right on the edge of a snow precipitation shield. Light/Mod snow should begin here in Stamford between 3:30-4:00pm. Then will change to sleet, freezing rain tonight, and all rain by Tuesday morning, as a strong low passes off to our West. Could have 20-30mph. winds on Tuesday out of the S-SE. With Higher gusts. This will usher in Temps. going into the 50’s by Tuesday PM. I had a low of 5 degrees, BELOW ZERO on Sunday morning!. Could have 2-4″ of snow before the rain washes everything away. I’ll report in on what I actually did get.

  3. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I am at the edge of the 5%; however, I am well within the white lines. Thank you for letting me know I need to be vigilant. We just don’t get that from the local news, and you know I like to be aware of the possibilities. I hope all in the path of this weather stay safe.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s