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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) N0rman, OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms…ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND VICINITY…
There is a MARGINAL risk surrounding the SLIGHT risk, EWD TO PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA…
There is a MARGINAL risk ACROSS COASTAL SC…
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST AND VICINITY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT…AND ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AND TORNADO PROBABILITY
Based on analysis of mid and upper level maps, and forecast sounding values of various parameters, as of the 1300Z SPC Outlook Maps, the synoptic situation is somewhat complex, in that some forecast parameters analyzed, are somewhat contradictory to others. However, in the grand scheme of things, analysis of various parameters from the SPC SREF model, and data from the RAP and NAM-WRF models using F5 DATA Severe Weather software forecast soundings, soundings at the moment tend to indicate the tornado threat may extend further northward in the risk area, and is depicted in the outline of the following maps. In all likelihood, the greatest potential for isolated tornadoes will lie within the SPC 5% outline…however I cannot ignore the current forecast soundings.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF MODEL BEST TOR PROB
Soundings such as the K INDEX (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index_%28meteorology%29), LIFTED INDEX (L.I.) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lifted_index), and Surface THETA-E (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equivalent_potential_temperature), combined with forecast dewpoints in the upper 50’s to low 60’s, indicate some moderate instability, while other indices are not as supportive of severe thunderstorms. However, with the risk area(s) lying within the diffluent side of a 80-110 knot jetstreak, and SRH values of 150-300, rotating supercells cannot be ruled out.
Based on the current forecast soundings, the severe threat in the SLIGHT and MARGINAL risk areas over the Gulf Coast region, should occur from approximately 1:00 p.m. EST through 7:00 p.m. EST.
The following graphics are linked to their respective sites…please feel free to click on them to retrieve current information, as the graphics themselves do not update automatically. What you view on this page, may be different once you click on the graphic.
Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local news channels for current statements and/or warnings.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS