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Good evening everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) N0rman, OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ADJACENT GULF COASTAL AREAS…
There is a MARGINAL risk surrounding areas OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION…
There is a MARGINAL risk late Monday night NEAR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA…
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO EASTERN GULF COAST MONDAY…AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE MONDAY NIGHT…WITH SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
Upon completing a “quickcast” analysis, of severe weather forecast soundings using F5 DATA Severe Weather software, NAM-WRF solution, and data from the current run of the SREF model from SPC, forecast soundings indicate supercell development may be likely over the marginal and slight risk areas over the Gulf coast region. Some select parameters/indices indicate a lifted index of -2 to -4, SBCAPE of 1000j/kg, STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) of 1, and a BRN (Bulk Richardson Number) in the range of 20-40. On the scale, a BRN ranging from 11-49 indicates Supercell thunderstorm development is possible or likely. The current solution covers both risk areas along the Gulf Coast region.
These forecast soundings, combined with a couple of others, indicate some isolated tornado activity may not be ruled out at the moment, most likely within the slight risk outline. Although the SPC does indicate some uncertainty of the extent of the severe weather in the outlook, there is agreement in the probability of organized convection which has the potential to develop supercells. The risk areas along the Gulf Coast region will be within, or extremely close to the left exit region of a strong jetstreak, which lends good support for severe thunderstorms.
I will try to have an update sometime tomorrow before things start to initiate.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS