INTENSE COASTAL/OFFSHORE STORM FORECAST / HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SYNOPSIS…FEB. 07, 2016…ISSUED 3:00 P.M. EST

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
money-dog-300x300

Good day everyone!

A coastal/offshore storm is taking shape, just off the SC coastline.

RAMSDIS EAST SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK FOR SATELLITE LOOPS)goes-14_1_minute_visible_sector_01

goes-14_1_minute_infrared_sector_01

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
latest_east_ir4_conus

latest_east_vis_conus

Analysis of the recent global models run, indicates this low will develop into a powerful coastal/offshore low by late this evening.  Models are currently projecting a NE motion, with the ECMWF keeping the low a little further away from the coast, with the GFS and GGEM being a little closer.  Exact track will determine how much wind and precip will be felt over the eastern seaboard.  As this system progresses further NEWD over this evening, models show this intensifying to a range of anywhere between 975 mb to 968 mb (or 28.79 in – 28.60 in).  Analysis of the 10m winds forecast, and information from the Stormsurf model output, winds along the coastal areas of the eastern seaboard from the Carolinas, NWD, could be sustained at 35-40 mph with higher gusts.  Further offshore, around the western and southern periphery of the storm, sustained winds may reach 60-70 mph, with stronger pockets to hurricane force.  Areas from NC, northward, can expect these winds to be onshore.  This will most likely cause some coastal flooding and beach erosion.  I cannot rule out the probability of power outages along the coast, and in areas inland, close to the coast.  Sea height will run around 5-8 ft close to the coast, and 24 ft, possibly higher, near the strongest area of sustained winds.

GFS 10 METER WIND
gfs.surface.wind15
GGEM 10 METER WIND
GGEM.10M.WIND

STORMSURF CAROLINA WIND FORECAST (ANIMATION)
carolina_wind_5

STORMSURF CAROLINA SEA HEIGHT FORECAST (ANIMATION)
carolina_sea_7

Residents along these areas should monitor their NWS office statements and warning closely.  Residents and small craft should remain off the water until this system passes.  A Hurricane Force Wind Warning is already in effect.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING LINK
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Hurricane%20Force%20Wind%20Warning

It appears some snowfall will be associated with this system, mainly from the Mid Atlantic region, northward.  The following are snowfall accumulation projections from the GFS and GGEM over the next 72 hours.

GFS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
GFS.72.SNOW

GGEM SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
GGEMSNOW72

PLEASE stay tuned to your local NWS and local news stations concerning this system.

The following graphics are linked.  Just mouse over and click, for up to date information:

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP
usa_None_anim

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in COASTAL STORM SYNOPSIS. Bookmark the permalink.

3 Responses to INTENSE COASTAL/OFFSHORE STORM FORECAST / HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SYNOPSIS…FEB. 07, 2016…ISSUED 3:00 P.M. EST

  1. In only 5 1/2 weeks, this year has become extremely interesting! Are we setting up for another “named” storm before this young month is over? Whether or not that happens, thanks Senior Chief for your keeping us ahead of the curve!

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Looks like the NEUS gets popped again. Stay safe LT.

    Go Broncos. But…I think this is going to be an uphill battle.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s