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Good day everyone!
A coastal/offshore storm is taking shape, just off the SC coastline.
Analysis of the recent global models run, indicates this low will develop into a powerful coastal/offshore low by late this evening. Models are currently projecting a NE motion, with the ECMWF keeping the low a little further away from the coast, with the GFS and GGEM being a little closer. Exact track will determine how much wind and precip will be felt over the eastern seaboard. As this system progresses further NEWD over this evening, models show this intensifying to a range of anywhere between 975 mb to 968 mb (or 28.79 in – 28.60 in). Analysis of the 10m winds forecast, and information from the Stormsurf model output, winds along the coastal areas of the eastern seaboard from the Carolinas, NWD, could be sustained at 35-40 mph with higher gusts. Further offshore, around the western and southern periphery of the storm, sustained winds may reach 60-70 mph, with stronger pockets to hurricane force. Areas from NC, northward, can expect these winds to be onshore. This will most likely cause some coastal flooding and beach erosion. I cannot rule out the probability of power outages along the coast, and in areas inland, close to the coast. Sea height will run around 5-8 ft close to the coast, and 24 ft, possibly higher, near the strongest area of sustained winds.
Residents along these areas should monitor their NWS office statements and warning closely. Residents and small craft should remain off the water until this system passes. A Hurricane Force Wind Warning is already in effect.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING LINK
It appears some snowfall will be associated with this system, mainly from the Mid Atlantic region, northward. The following are snowfall accumulation projections from the GFS and GGEM over the next 72 hours.
The following graphics are linked. Just mouse over and click, for up to date information:
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS