SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED FEB. 02, 2016…10:00 A.M. EST…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman OK. has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms over parts of MS…AL…TN…KY…AND SRN IND…

There is a SLIGHT risk surrounding the enhanced area FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST TO THE LWR OH VLY…

There is a MARGINAL risk FROM THE GULF CST INTO THE MID-OH VLY…

Summary from the SPC Outlook:

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES — A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG — ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK CATEGORY DESCRIPTIONS
Outlook-category-descriptions

This took a while, as I had to wait for some of the models to update.  The SPC indicates the main threat for tornadoes today to lie mainly within the enhanced risk area, and a small portion of the slight risk area over portions of MS/AL.

Analysis of STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast soundings, SRH (Storm Relative Helicity), EHI (Energy Helicity Index), LI (Lifted Index), and VGP (Vorticity Generation Potential), and various other forecast soundings from both the College of DuPage, and F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, forecast indices indicate SRH of 300-350, EHI of 1-5, and STP values ranging from 1 -3 (covering most of the enhanced area) and STP values from 5-8 over suggested pockets over a portion of MS.  This is most likely as well in the “SIGNIFICANT” area pockets as outlined in the tornado probability graphic from SPC.  Overall, based on the F5 DATA graphic from the 12Z NAM-WRF model, the greatest probability for experiencing significant severe weather, and possible isolated strong tornadoes, lies within the white outline based on the NAM-WRF solution.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF TORNADO PROB OUTLINE
f5 namtor

Again, isolated forecast sounding parameters do somewhat mimic the more significant areas of the SPC tornado graphic.  Based on the NAM-WRF solution it appears the bulk of the most significant severe weather may occur between 3:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. CST.  As stated in my previous forecast, Significant Tornado Parameters of 1 or greater, indicates the potential for strong tornadoes increases dramatically.

The SPC Day 1 graphic should update around 11:00 a.m. EST.  ALL graphics below are linked to their respective sites to provide up to date graphics and text…for some reason the graphics do not update on this page.

Residents within the ENHANCED and SLIGHT risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio today, and local NWS Statements and advisories.

IF a TORNADO WARNING is issued for your area…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

Suggested actions to be taken when a tornado warning is issued:
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/safety.html)

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)
day1otlk_1300

SPC TORNADO PROBABILITY OUTLOOK
day1probotlk_1300_torn
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY (LINKED)
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION DISPLAY (LINKED)
validmd

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
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NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK ON YOUR AREA)
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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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11 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED FEB. 02, 2016…10:00 A.M. EST…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

  1. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, watching “Monster” coastal storm taking shape off the SE coast today (Sunday) proved to move NE, just S&E of the Benchmark. Could go down to a 970mb low by the time it reaches 40 degrees N. Quite impressive on satellite now. Might get 1-3″ of snow out of it as it brushes by me, here in SW CT. Boston & the Cape, maybe 6-12″ and blizzard conditions on the Cape. I’ll let you know what I get. Enjoy the Super Bowl, if you can or like to watch it!

  2. You rank at the top – Senior Chief – Those storms missed my part of the Gulf, thank the Good Lord. Last I heard there were few injuries, but even a few are too many!

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, you nailed exactly where those tornadoes broke out.

  4. grannyMS says:

    Thank you, Storm

  5. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks storm. Watching closely here from the Mobile area. Looks like the worst for us will be early morning.

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