SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS… FEB. 01, 2016…ISSUED 10:20 A.M. EST

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Good day everyone!

As I was publishing this synopsis, the SPC added a MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 1 Outlook:

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)
day1otlk_1300

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY (LINKED)
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION DISPLAY (LINKED)
validmd

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
usa_None_anim

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY (LINKED)
US

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 2 Convective Outlook across much of MS…NWRN AL…WRN TN AND KY…EXTREME SRN IL AND INDIANA…

There is a SLIGHT risk FROM SRN IL AND INDIANA SWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST…

There is a MARGINAL risk IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA…

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_0700

Based on information contained in the outlook, and analysis of forecast sounding parameters and values using F5 DATA Severe Weather software, based on a combination of the NAM-WRF and GFS 06Z runs, some values are offsetting others.  The SPC outlook indicates wind shear will be quite strong across the region, and stronger than instability.  This setup based on forecast parameter definitions, generally hampers supercell thunderstorm development.  On the other hand, forecast sounding data at the moment, shows SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) values at around 350 – 450, and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) values of 3 – 6, within the outlined areas in the following maps, would indicate some storms embedded within the line in the enhanced risk area, could be tornadic.  Based on the STP scale, values greater than 1 indicate the probability of significant tornadoes increases dramatically.

F5 DATA GFS OUTLINE
f5 gfstor

F5 DATA NAM-WRF OUTLINE
f5 namtor

The  affected region will be under the influence of a strong upper level (250 mb) jetstreak, on the order of about 140 – 160 knots.  This pretty much creates strong divergence in the upper portion of the atmosphere, along with “tilting”, as mentioned in the SPC outlook.  Tilting of the thunderstorm prevents rain from falling back into the “updraft”, which keeps the thunderstorm fueled. (http://www.tornadochaser.net/jet.html).

GFS 250 MB WINDS
GFS.250MB JET

I will be looking at this again in the morning, with the new early morning runs…analyzing newer forecast soundings, and will try to have an update published before 11:00 a.m.

On a very brief note, the Arctic Oscillation is forecast to take a dip into the negative once more, but at the moment, doesn’t appear to be as strong of a dip as the previous.  However, expect colder temperatures to once again head south during the next 5-6 days

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS… FEB. 01, 2016…ISSUED 10:20 A.M. EST

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm for your usual excellent explanation that non-meteorological people can understand. The bottom of your white circle is close enough to my house so it doesn’t make a difference, so I will be watching things. I live about a mile as the crow flies north of I-12. Mac, if you’re inside that circle, as well as Greg and Mike, our Mobile guys inside the circle, please stay safe. Thanks for your wishes Monty. LT, my prayers are with your area because I don’t think y’all are near done with winter yet, kind of like Southwest Louisiana in 2005, where they got part of Katrina and part of Rita a month later, but all anyone heard about was New Orleans.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Glad I’m not in DEN. Up to 15 inches total accumulations in parts of city possible.

    Stay safe Dellamom and all in the path of Severe WX.

    Hi LT. Hope you are doing well.

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