SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 27, 2016…10:30 A.M. EST

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
money-dog-300x300

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms for portions of Central and South Florida.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

Some storms have already rolled through the peninsula during the early morning hours.  However, the SPC outlook indicates, with any breaks in cloud cover, insolation over portions of the risk area may allow for destabilization during the afternoon and early evening hours.  Based on information in the SPC outlook, low level shear will weaken with the passage of the aforementioned storms, but with surface dew points forecast to be in the 60-70F range, increasing low level WAA (Warm Air Advection), and a strong upper level jetstreak (120-130 kts) forecast over the area, shear should be sufficient for rotation of some thunderstorm cells, thus providing the slight probability of isolated tornado activity for this afternoon and early evening.

I have already received 1.47″ of rain in the past 24 hours, ending at 7:00 a.m. this morning.

The SPC has also designated a MARGINAL risk in the DAY 2 outlook for a portion of SE Florida

SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
day2otlk_0700

The following graphics are all linked…for current information, mouse over and click on them.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS
US

INTELLICAST DOPPLER RADAR LOOP
usa_None_anim

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Severe Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 27, 2016…10:30 A.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, I saw that Southern Florida got some heavy rain and storms today. Take care if you have to drive around.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s